Hurricane Sandy?
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from another weather site--these guys are radical weather followers--interesting folks----
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Interesting discussion by Dr Jeff Masters about the scenarios for New England and Mid Atlantic states.
The Northeast U.S. scenario
If Sandy makes landfall farther to the north near Maine and Nova Scotia, heavy rains will be the main threat, since the cold waters will weaken the storm significantly before landfall. The trees have fewer leaves farther to the north, which will reduce the amount of tree damage and power failures compared to a more southerly track. However, given that ocean temperatures along the Northeast U.S. coast are about 5°F above average, there will be an unusually large amount of water vapor available to make heavy rain. If the trough of low pressure approaching the East Coast taps into the large reservoir of cold air over Canada and pulls down a significant amount of Arctic air, the potential exists for the unusually moist air from Sandy to collide with this cold air from Canada and unleash the heaviest October rains ever recorded in the Northeast U.S., Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick. This Northeast U.S. scenario would probably cause damages near $100 million dollars.
The mid-Atlantic U.S. scenario
Landfall Monday along the mid-Atlantic coast on Monday, as predicted by the ECMWF and NOGAPS models, would likely be a billion-dollar disaster. In this scenario, Sandy would be able to bring sustained winds near hurricane force over a wide stretch of heavily populated coast, causing massive power outages, as trees still in leaf fall and take out power lines. Sandy is expected to have tropical storm-force winds that extend out more than 300 miles from the center, which will drive a much larger storm surge than its winds would ordinarily suggest. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical tides will be at their peak for the month, increasing potential storm surge flooding. Fresh water flooding from heavy rains would also be a huge concern. Given the ECMWF's consistent handling of Sandy, I believe this mid-Atlantic scenario has a higher probability of occurring than the Northeast U.S. scenario. However, it is likely that the models are overdoing the strength of Sandy at landfall. The models have trouble handling the transition from tropical storm to extratropical storm in these type of situations, and I expect that the 940 mb central pressure of Sandy predicted at landfall Monday in Delaware by the ECMWF model is substantially overdone.
Jeff Masters
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and the atest i saw from nhc was it looks like center punch hit for nyc and philly....with blizzard forecast in rhode island---be safe and stay warm,, guys.
Quote:
Interesting discussion by Dr Jeff Masters about the scenarios for New England and Mid Atlantic states.
The Northeast U.S. scenario
If Sandy makes landfall farther to the north near Maine and Nova Scotia, heavy rains will be the main threat, since the cold waters will weaken the storm significantly before landfall. The trees have fewer leaves farther to the north, which will reduce the amount of tree damage and power failures compared to a more southerly track. However, given that ocean temperatures along the Northeast U.S. coast are about 5°F above average, there will be an unusually large amount of water vapor available to make heavy rain. If the trough of low pressure approaching the East Coast taps into the large reservoir of cold air over Canada and pulls down a significant amount of Arctic air, the potential exists for the unusually moist air from Sandy to collide with this cold air from Canada and unleash the heaviest October rains ever recorded in the Northeast U.S., Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick. This Northeast U.S. scenario would probably cause damages near $100 million dollars.
The mid-Atlantic U.S. scenario
Landfall Monday along the mid-Atlantic coast on Monday, as predicted by the ECMWF and NOGAPS models, would likely be a billion-dollar disaster. In this scenario, Sandy would be able to bring sustained winds near hurricane force over a wide stretch of heavily populated coast, causing massive power outages, as trees still in leaf fall and take out power lines. Sandy is expected to have tropical storm-force winds that extend out more than 300 miles from the center, which will drive a much larger storm surge than its winds would ordinarily suggest. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical tides will be at their peak for the month, increasing potential storm surge flooding. Fresh water flooding from heavy rains would also be a huge concern. Given the ECMWF's consistent handling of Sandy, I believe this mid-Atlantic scenario has a higher probability of occurring than the Northeast U.S. scenario. However, it is likely that the models are overdoing the strength of Sandy at landfall. The models have trouble handling the transition from tropical storm to extratropical storm in these type of situations, and I expect that the 940 mb central pressure of Sandy predicted at landfall Monday in Delaware by the ECMWF model is substantially overdone.
Jeff Masters
__________________
and the atest i saw from nhc was it looks like center punch hit for nyc and philly....with blizzard forecast in rhode island---be safe and stay warm,, guys.
Man, I about rolled on the floor at the "spaghetti plot". I'm glad most of them looks like they're turning. Because it looks now like it's heading up the mouth of the Cape Fear.
I was supposed to be racing the Stede Bonnet Regatta Saturday, and those chickens are talking about a cancellation. By God THAT would be a race...
I was supposed to be racing the Stede Bonnet Regatta Saturday, and those chickens are talking about a cancellation. By God THAT would be a race...
This is a very complicated storm, influenced by other weather activity. There is a great deal of uncertainty about what happens at this point. Would not surprise me if big damage came inland and was labeled a nor'easter, but a hurricane was the daddy. Amazing the weather intel we get these days compared to years past where we never saw it coming.
NWS models are now bending the storm south of Long Island. But the low pressure trough will make the final call where this thing goes.
NWS models are now bending the storm south of Long Island. But the low pressure trough will make the final call where this thing goes.
I was looking at the spaghetti models and they are converging for a hit around Atlantic City on Tuesday of next week. The forecasters are indicating that before it gets there it will have lost its tropical characteristics and will have grown into a winter storm. The characteristics were described as a huge wind field which could have Storm Category 1 winds from Norfolk, VA to parts of Maine. This covers the whole Chesapeake area, Washington DC, Philadelphia, New York, Boston. This is a serious threat and those in the affected areas should pay close attention to the forecast and take early precautions to safeguard life and property.
We did the Gosslings last weekend. We will probably go to Jewell on Sat as well.
RE: Zeehag post -forget the track line. "If you are in the cone, you are in the cone" Word.
NOAA doesn't want amateurs trying to use the model tracks. Use the cone. You will notice the large cone 4 days out on the mid-Atlantic covers an area from southern Ontario to North Carolina. Lots of uncertainty about impact area, but someone is going to draw the short straw, and will take a prolonged beating.
NOAA doesn't want amateurs trying to use the model tracks. Use the cone. You will notice the large cone 4 days out on the mid-Atlantic covers an area from southern Ontario to North Carolina. Lots of uncertainty about impact area, but someone is going to draw the short straw, and will take a prolonged beating.
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