i predict that next july the water level of lake michigan/lake huron will be 18 inches higher than it was this last july setting a new all time record for modern times.
high water?
- Thread starter jon hansen
- Start date
I hope your wrong but the trend in the last several years certainly supports your theory.
This is the forecast for Lake Ontario
Note the “average” line compared to current year and forecast.
Last edited:
There really isn’t much human control if you consider the size of the basin. Lots of upset affected businesses and landowners though!
This is the main page for the IJC if you want to dig deeper.
That's the myth people want to believe because they want to blame someone for the damage to their property caused by record rainfalls throughout the Great Lakes Basin.
People also want to believe the Moses-Saunders Dam can just be opened and all the water will immediately drain away. Of course if the dam suddenly disappeared and the water left via the St Lawrence, Montreal would be washed away in the process. Lowering the water 1 inch on Ontario raises the water 11 inches in Montreal. Dropping the water 1 foot on Lake Erie would raise the water level on Ontario by about 16 inches.
Between Duluth and the Moses-Saunders dam on the St Lawrence there is only one dam, at Sault St Marie, the outlet for Lake Superior. And all that water flows right through my marina.
my summer home is on the water and i have been watching the level for 60 plus years. i'm a weather geek. the water tables in the water shed areas are full to the brim and gushing out. the october levels are way higher than last year. the forecast is for continued wet and cold for the winter.
99% of the water leaves the lakes through evaporation, not the rivers.
i hope i'm wrong, however i can see the ancient shore line on my own property, it's 20' feet higher. and that's within the last 10,000 years, which ain't much. the annual increase can go up for years, not just this coming year.
i think the problem is created by them artesians pumping their wells way to much. they seem to be an odd lot, them artesians. living underground and all. i think i saw one of them once, but i can;t prove it.
99% of the water leaves the lakes through evaporation, not the rivers.
i hope i'm wrong, however i can see the ancient shore line on my own property, it's 20' feet higher. and that's within the last 10,000 years, which ain't much. the annual increase can go up for years, not just this coming year.
i think the problem is created by them artesians pumping their wells way to much. they seem to be an odd lot, them artesians. living underground and all. i think i saw one of them once, but i can;t prove it.
I think you might be right about that!! However they are the same people who built the big fans you can see in the background so that I always have consistent wind.
This is my grandson fishing on our dock this summer!
Them Artesians should all either assimilate, or go back to Artesia.i think the problem is created by them artesians pumping their wells way to much. they seem to be an odd lot, them artesians. living underground and all. i think i saw one of them once, but i can;t prove it.
We call it Lake Effect Snow.
I think 99% is probably a bit high, however, evaporation is a huge factor in the early winter when the water is warm and the air cold and dry.
While poking around looking for information on evaporation on the Great Lakes, I came across an article that discussed the problem from the perspective of record low water levels just 6 years ago.
Study corrects misconceptions of Great Lakes evaporation
The recent Arctic blast that gripped much of the<br />nation will likely contribute to a healthy rise in Great Lakes water levels in<br />2014. But the processes responsible for that welcome outcome are not as simple<br />and straightforward as you might think.
and this from about the same time period:
National Geographic Society
The National Geographic Society is a global nonprofit organization that uses the power of science, exploration, education and storytelling to illuminate and protect the wonder of our world. Since 1888, National Geographic has pushed the boundaries of exploration, investing in bold people and...
Now, if you Midwesterners would just get more rain barrels and keep some water to yourself instead of sending it downstream, we'd all be more appreciative. 80-85% of the water on Lake Ontario comes from the Niagara River.
Water level predictions are all over the map. Right now the bottoms of our marina docks are in the water. If the water level comes up any further along with ice formation many of those docks will be toast by spring. Four years ago we were talking about dredging because the water was so low. Beach erosion will probably dump a few more family cottages into Lake Michigan, its happened before.
If Jon Hansen is right, I will be looking forward to a rather damp crawl space and the need for steps to get up into my boat.
If Jon Hansen is right, I will be looking forward to a rather damp crawl space and the need for steps to get up into my boat.
We had a weird summer here with possible similar results. We have had a few years of low levels on Lake Winnipeg.
At haulout this fall, the ramps down to the docks at our marina were steep enough you could easily slip and fall. Considering the channel is normally very narrow due to depth, I wonder how some of the deeper draft boats got to the crane to get hauled.
Flash ahead a few weeks later, and the rivers that run into the lake are sitting at SPRING flood levels, due to VERY heavy rainfall.
Who knows what spring will be like. Heavy flooding along the rivers and higher lake levels I am guessing.
On a good note it means the hydro dams up north will have lots of stored "power" available.
At haulout this fall, the ramps down to the docks at our marina were steep enough you could easily slip and fall. Considering the channel is normally very narrow due to depth, I wonder how some of the deeper draft boats got to the crane to get hauled.
Flash ahead a few weeks later, and the rivers that run into the lake are sitting at SPRING flood levels, due to VERY heavy rainfall.
Who knows what spring will be like. Heavy flooding along the rivers and higher lake levels I am guessing.
On a good note it means the hydro dams up north will have lots of stored "power" available.
I was raised in a farming community on an island so everyone I knew constantly talked about the weather/water levels etc. as it had a major impact on day to day life. During community gatherings (church suppers etc) historical events of high and low water years, extra tough winters were often shared with the younger participants. Lots of households had multiple generations so stories were shared there as well.
My grandson who is 7 now thinks water over the top of our dock most of the summer is “normal”. He doesn’t remember the year mentioned above that I ran a sprinkler almost full time to keep our trees alive.
I can’t recall such wild swings in the weather when I was younger, maybe there is something to this theory that humans are actually impacting nature!
My grandson who is 7 now thinks water over the top of our dock most of the summer is “normal”. He doesn’t remember the year mentioned above that I ran a sprinkler almost full time to keep our trees alive.
I can’t recall such wild swings in the weather when I was younger, maybe there is something to this theory that humans are actually impacting nature!
Wow it is good thing that El Niño didn't happen, which brings Pacific Moisture to North America.
The Greater Lakes now.
Jim...
PS: Whew, the Atlantic will start to rise in level again.
Actually the Artesians will get "recharged" by all this fresh water.
The Greater Lakes now.
Jim...
PS: Whew, the Atlantic will start to rise in level again.
jssailem
SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
- Oct 22, 2014
- 22,813
This is a question that has been raised in a few pubs up here...
Usually with another two or more glasses. That sometimes resolves the dilemma.
Usually with another two or more glasses. That sometimes resolves the dilemma.
On a more serious note the high water levels in the Great Lakes basin is perhaps the least of our worries. My grandson will be about 35. Check out the interactive maps.
sealevel.climatecentral.org
New study triples global estimates of population threatened by sea level rise | Surging Seas: Sea level rise analysis by Climate Central
Global warming has raised global sea level about 8" since 1880, and the rate of rise is accelerating. Rising seas dramatically increase the odds of damaging floods from storm surges.
Last edited:
I was just catching up on today’s news and found this:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/scientists-declare-climate-emergency-1.5347486
Gives me pause, I have two vehicles, a power boat, a house that is 5 times bigger than my parents with less people living in it, and I put out a full garbage bin every week. Hmmm I think I need to do a little better!
Full PDF of article attached
https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/scientists-declare-climate-emergency-1.5347486
Gives me pause, I have two vehicles, a power boat, a house that is 5 times bigger than my parents with less people living in it, and I put out a full garbage bin every week. Hmmm I think I need to do a little better!
Full PDF of article attached
Attachments
To throw cold water on the worries..[pun intended]
You have satellites monitoring the poles for ice.
Antartica ice grew faster than ever before and here is the Arctic 11/4/2019...
Both poles are on ICE regrowth path.
Our Sun is at the bottom of Solar Cycle 24 or Flatlined.
Break out your Long John's for this winter.
Hopefully we will get some Pacific moisture for snow, if not bitter cold.
Right now the PNW HIGH is protecting us, like the during the now ended Atlantic Hurricane season.
Jim...
You have satellites monitoring the poles for ice.
Antartica ice grew faster than ever before and here is the Arctic 11/4/2019...
Both poles are on ICE regrowth path.
Our Sun is at the bottom of Solar Cycle 24 or Flatlined.
Break out your Long John's for this winter.
Hopefully we will get some Pacific moisture for snow, if not bitter cold.
Right now the PNW HIGH is protecting us, like the during the now ended Atlantic Hurricane season.
Jim...