Hell freezes over

Jan 11, 2014
7,849
Sabre 362 113 Fair Haven, NY
Looks like a typical day in early May here. Don't worry, it's not permanent.
 
Jul 27, 2011
4,530
Bavaria 38E Alamitos Bay
Friday, 900 hours, Tucson Arizona.
So, we’ve gone from Global Warming, to Global Climate Change, to local climate variation, and before too long, it (the issues) may be hardly more than a discussion about the weather. The hallmark of the demise of a “scientific” theory is an accumulation of ad hoc “explanations” for unexpected observations inconsistent w/ theory. I wonder where we are on this continuum?:doh:
 
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Jan 1, 2006
6,097
Slickcraft 26 Greenport, NY
...The hallmark of the demise of a “scientific” theory is an accumulation of ad hoc “explanations” for unexpected observations inconsistent w/ theory. I wonder where we are on this continuum?:doh:
That's right. We would still be using Newtonian Physics except some observations couldn't be explained by it. In my opinion all science is theory. It works until it doesn't.
 
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Jul 27, 2011
4,530
Bavaria 38E Alamitos Bay
That's right. We would still be using Newtonian Physics except some observations couldn't be explained by it. In my opinion all science is theory. It works until it doesn't.
That’s the most famous example, but the scientific literature is littered with less grandiose ones.
 
Oct 22, 2014
16,130
CAL 35 Cruiser moored EVERETT WA
So for the feeble minded of us, can I equate Global Warming with Newtonian Physics as a theory with the same outcome?
 
Feb 20, 2011
7,793
Island Packet 35 Tucson, AZ/San Carlos, MX
Flagstaff's got the equipage for it.
Tucson, Phoenix, not so much. And the locals here have no idea how to drive in it.
 
May 25, 2012
3,846
john alden caravelle 42 sturgeon bay, wis
that storm is coming to visit us on the great lakes. the term 'weather bomb' is being used.

could mean some ice boaters will be looking to set some speed records. 3 X 60 mph puff might = 180 mph squirt. .......... but prolly not

wind toys :)
the man we bought the Ascow from has done a two direction pass with the average speed of 143.0 ish
 

walt

.
Jun 1, 2007
3,452
Macgregor 26S Hobie TI Ridgway Colorado
can I equate Global Warming with Newtonian Physics as a theory with the same outcome?
Been cold here (Im in Western Az) all winter. At least we are not alone.. Check out the temperature anomaly map, been similar often this winter.
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2anom
Click on the image to look at other parts of the planet. Almost every other spot has been warmer than normal. Maybe the word "global" means an average over the planet.

the man we bought the Ascow from has done a two direction pass with the average speed of 143.0 ish
Try a google search of ice boat speed record and read some of the forums.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_boat

Those very high speeds were from a very long time ago and no one knows the details of how things were measured or if someone spilled their drink while measuring. Modern ice boats which are actually more efficient do get up near 100 mph or slightly over but no where near the speeds of those old unconfirmed stories. There was another story where someone said an ice boat did over 120 mph. Asked how it was measured.. A police car was supposedly bored and used a radar gun to watch the boats on the ice.. And then later I guess talked to someone.. who talked to someone else.. Anyhow, 143 ish is very suspect. Id be interested if anyone can find a link confirming that..

In recent history, the fastest wind driven speeds have actually happened on a dry lake bed and the reason that land sailers have a higher confirmed speed is that its way easier to go sit out on a dry lake bed for several weeks waiting for the perfect conditions. Ice changes way too quick. The peak speeds on either ice or land should be about the same. The difference in drag between land and ice is only a tiny part of the equation at over 100 mph. Remember that vessel drag goes up with the square of wind velocity.

FYI, the actual verified land speed record is a hair over 126 mph set in 2009 at Ivanpah dry lake bed on the California Nevada border

http://www.greenbird.co.uk/home

The same guys tried to break their own speed record on land and that unlikely "reported" speed record on ice. They never did succeed.
 
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Jul 27, 2011
4,530
Bavaria 38E Alamitos Bay
So for the feeble minded of us, can I equate Global Warming with Newtonian Physics as a theory with the same outcome?
The climate change debate started long before ice core data became available. The first ice core results showed the cyclical rise and fall of presumably global-wide temperatures over the past 400 thousand years. There was a correlated rise and fall of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Unexpectedly, increases and decreases in CO2 levels trailed temperature changes by a few hundred years at the best resolution. The first big “oops.” So, the first ad hoc hypothesis to account for that observation, etc., was offered. Perhaps this is like when the physicists couldn’t find evidence of “the ether.”
 
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walt

.
Jun 1, 2007
3,452
Macgregor 26S Hobie TI Ridgway Colorado
Global warming ends up being a political subject and politics should be completely avoided on any sailing forum. No matter how little, someone will be offended and leave - which is not good for the forum.

However, this topic comes up here fairly often here at SBO and I guess its being tolerated somewhat (a mistake on SBO's part I think). Im not a climate scientist but did study it a bunch last summer. It would participate in a discussion as its really an interesting subject maybe in sails lounge. It would need some simple rules.. you either have to back something up with a reference or give your credentials on why you dont have to come up with references.
 

TomY

Alden Forum Moderator
Jun 22, 2004
2,663
Alden 38' Challenger yawl Rockport Harbor
Climate science just gives us recorded data. I'm playing the odds in 2019: I plan to be on the water most, if not all of the month of August.

You can't count of weather but the 5 hottest years recorded on the planet, have been the last 5 years.

Plus we were on the Gulf of Maine (one of the fastest warming water bodies on Earth), last August 8 when it set the second highest temperature record; nearly 69 degrees F.

That's swimming water for Mainers. With the bays and near coast waters warmer still, we could be spending more time in the water here.
 
Jul 28, 2018
57
Catalina 22 TX
Nobody should have assumed "global warming" meant uniform warming across the globe. It has always referred to extra heat causing disruption in established currents, so "local variation" is just a better name for the same thing, to reduce this common misconception. Heat in one place draws in air from other colder regions, like a fireplace draw causing cold air near a leaky window, if you need a simple way to think about it.
So, we’ve gone from Global Warming, to Global Climate Change, to local climate variation, and before too long, it (the issues) may be hardly more than a discussion about the weather. The hallmark of the demise of a “scientific” theory is an accumulation of ad hoc “explanations” for unexpected observations inconsistent w/ theory. I wonder where we are on this continuum?:doh: