A complex thread with a lot of opinions...
And I doubt mine will lend any clarity, but I'll try. Watched a science show on TV a few years back about lightening research. They were using ultra high speed movie cameras to record lightening strikes, which they would initiate by launching large 'model rockets' with a thin piece of wire attatched between the rocket and a ground rod at the launcher. As the rocket was fired into the air, (during a thunder storm) the cameras recorded a phenomenon that they called (if I remember right) 'streamers'. What this basically was is a very small 'reverse strike, in that a charge would actually travel UP the wire where it was then met by the actual lightening bolt, which would then travel back down to the ground. Subsequent research and photography found this also occurred when lightening hit other objects, like trees and houses. First, the streamer projects upward from an object, then the lightening meets it and follows a reverse path to ground. Their analysis of this was that the streamer produced an ionized path for the lightening to follow, because the ionized air provided a lower resistance path than the non-ionized air around it. The story was that this had been theorized in the past, but only by using new ultra high speeed movie cameras were they able to finally detect and record the event. I can tell you that the frame-by-frame photos were truly amazing. The camera was so fast that an average strike would be recorded across 6-10 frames, clearly showing first the streamer, then the lightening contacting it, the lightenings travel downwards, striking the object the streamer came from and then that object being blown to bits. One note of interest was that the streamers always came from a grounded object, so, might one postulate that a ungrounded mast may be less likely to produce a streamer and therefore less likely to be hit by lightening, but that if the mast IS hit anyway (due to, perhaps, rain producing a path to ground), a grounded mast will better dissipate that energy with possibly less collateral damage to the boat? Anyhow, great thread and it's good to see so many people discussing something that we will likely never have a complete answer for!