• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

GSP --> Invest 93L --> TD 10 --> TS Idalia --> Hurricane Idalia

JamesG161

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Feb 14, 2014
7,728
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
We have been watching this for a few days and this morning both key models are agreeing,

two_atl_7d0.png

PT10.png



The Good News , if any, is fast moving over a low HEAT area.

ohc_aQG3_latest_natl.gif


Time to Prepare.

BOAT PREPARATION IDEAS for Storms

Jim...
 

JamesG161

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Feb 14, 2014
7,728
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Invest 93L is slowly forming until Monday 28th.

Then it should move at ±10 mph across the Gulf of Mexico.

Our post above is still valid.

93L_gefs_latest.png


It will be named soon.

Jim and "Bone Head" aka John
 

JamesG161

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Feb 14, 2014
7,728
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
This may be named Idalia soon.

The track above still looks like the path.

Impact felt in 3 days on Florida.

Jim...
 

JamesG161

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Feb 14, 2014
7,728
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
NHC just released this.

AL102023_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png


The Bad New is TD 10 just sits over the Gap to gain strength.

Dammit Jim...

PS: Storm begins with letter "I" :facepalm:

PSS: Thanks to @kloudie1 who was first to alert us.:clap:
 

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
22,387
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Good morning Sailors.
It has been a busy morning exploring the weather developments.

TEN, the storm not Bo Derek, is hanging around the gap between Western Cuba and the Yucatán peninsula. A mix of High Pressure cells over Texas and Florida have stalled the storm. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly through the storm today. One of the interesting developments if the appearance of cyclonic motion not normally seen in stalled storm in these parts. It has the weather observers focused on the action.

Here is a look at the precipitation over Western Cuba and storm shape
Screenshot 2023-08-27 at 9.11.37 AM.png


A number of upper level conditions are aligning to lead us to conjecture the storm path (when it starts) will be in a NE direction. Below is a screen capture showing the upper level winds developing by Tuesday that look to end "TEN'S" Cuban holiday and send it off on a romp in the Gulf. This storm bears monitoring for boat owners on the Western Coast and Panhandle of Florida.

1693153153198.png
 
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jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
22,387
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
There are a number of previous storms that have visited Florida. Idalia appears to be on a similar track.

F4jC5-4WkAAMHNM.jpeg


Dammit Jim and John.
 
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Sep 25, 2008
7,303
Alden 50 Sarasota, Florida
I understand and agree.
The concern would be an excess of rain accompanied with strong winds.

May the weather be gentle. But keep an eye out in case it is not.
Thanks. The boat is 1000 miles south of here and houses here are built like bomb shelters so let it rain.
 
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JamesG161

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Feb 14, 2014
7,728
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
The News has good information now.

The Hurricane Hunters [2] are in the storm now. They give the best data.:clap:

recon_AF309-0510A-IDALIA.png


Note this Buoy Data from here
NDBC - Station 42056 Recent Data

Camera picture now
Z28A_2023_08_28_1210.jpg


Not intensifying yet.

Dammit Jim...
 
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JamesG161

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Feb 14, 2014
7,728
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Hurricane Idalia will be a Major Storm.


Screenshot 2023-08-29 at 9.56.05 AM.png


DAMMIT Jim...
 

JamesG161

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Feb 14, 2014
7,728
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Hurricane Idalia has changed course and moved more to the North.

couse change.png


I am getting rain fall from storm bands now.:yikes:


DAMMIT Jim...
 
Jan 1, 2006
7,408
Slickcraft 26 Sailfish
Every time the TWC talks about a wobble West I think of Jim. He don't need dat!
Not to be unkind to the fine folks of Steinhachee, but they can all evacuate in a VW microbus and should. If there are fish storms, this could be a mosquito storm. It's what happens after landfall that's dangerous in this case.
 
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JamesG161

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Feb 14, 2014
7,728
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Many of our SBO friends will feel this, including the new SBO warehouse in Gainesville, FL.

It may landfall in the dark, which is even more scary.

Stay Safe Please

DAMMIT Jim...
 
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JamesG161

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Feb 14, 2014
7,728
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Just in from NHC with land fall in early morning...

Category 4 Hurricane Idalia

Pray for them.

DAMMIT Jim...
 

JamesG161

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Feb 14, 2014
7,728
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Lot of Damage done.

Storm Surge was high in key spots.

One picture I found about houses built on "Stilts" aka [support columns]

StormSurge.png


Each year FEMA decides the Height on your beach front property.

Guess which home was most recently built?

Jim...