Geologist predicts earthquake this week off No America Coast

Ross · Mar 19, 2011

Re: Geologist predicts earthquake this week off No America C

You don't need a U-Tube video to learn that A visit to the USGS earthquake center will provide all the interesting reading you could want. Yes there will be an earthquate somewhere along the west coast of N. America and likely within my lifetime. Tere have been several already that i have either watched on TV or read about in the papers. There has also been a major volcano in the Northwest and there is a high probability of another within the lifetimes of the members of this forum.

higgs · Mar 19, 2011

Re: Geologist predicts earthquake this week off No America C

Ross - the prediction is this week. I am always skeptical of this type of stuff, but I am pretty much skeptical about most things.

FourPoints · Mar 19, 2011

I've heard much of that before, logically it makes a lot of sense and its easy to believe, but i would not bet on the "big one" happening this week just because of that.

Anyone who says the moon has zero effect on quakes is naive. The moon generates the tides, moves trillions of gallons of water around the earth towards its pull, and the ground stays still. However that doesent mean the ground isn't also affected by its gravity. It only means the ground holds still against the moons forces. If something is stressed, adding an extra tug might be enough to break it.

I think he is probably correct that statistically the odds are slightly better of a quake occurring soon given the somewhat rare proximity of the moon, but it does not mean a earthquake will happen tomorrow.

higgs · Mar 19, 2011

Re: Geologist predicts earthquake this week off No America C

Tides here in FL are not that much higher tonight than normal - or at least that is what I read in the paper today. The moon is 17,000 miles closer than it's average, which really is not a hell of a lot when you consider it is a quarter of million miles away. As I figure it, that's about 7%. Are the faults vulnerable to to a gravitational change of that magnitude?

JohnShannon · Mar 19, 2011

Re: Geologist predicts earthquake this week off No America C

Ha Ha You do know that this was on Fox.

higgs · Mar 19, 2011

Re: Geologist predicts earthquake this week off No America C

John - good point. They aren't called FAUX news for nothing.

Steve Dion · Mar 19, 2011

Re: Geologist predicts earthquake this week off No America C

I did not review this guys predictions, but the California coast from San Luis Obispo to the Oregon experienced 6 earth quakes in the past week. If you look at the USGS earthquake map you can see where they occurred and the intensity.

rfrye1 · Mar 19, 2011

Living and waiting in Phx.

Well guys (and gals), I live and have my business in Phx, but keep my H376 in San Diego. If the BIG one ever comes, maybe I'll be closer to my boat......
Hopefully that will never happen. I can't imagine the devastation in Japan, my prayers go out to those folks.

PipedreamV · Mar 20, 2011

Re: Living and waiting in Phx.

Do you think, this predicited earth quake could be as bad as the one in Japan? I hope it is not as bad as the one in Christchurch?
It seems that "mother nature" is trying to destroy the earth!!!!!
Of course if you are Religious, you may think this is the end, and
Jesus my be flying down from Heaven next week!!! (lol). Please
forgive me, just trying to bring a little humor, in these sad times.

jackhartjr · Mar 20, 2011

Re: Geologist predicts earthquake this week off No America C

How ironic that one of my best friends and me were talking about this guy this week.
He is the guy that predicted the World Series earthquake in 1989...then the guv'ment told him not to do that again 'cause it could scare folks!
Jack

Witzend · Mar 20, 2011

Re: Geologist predicts earthquake this week off No America C

Think of the pacific plate as a big bell, you bang on it on one side and it vibrates on the other. Of course it is not a perfect analogy because of the time involved between the measured events, but you have to wonder if more stress has now built up along the slip fault along N.A. as a result of the severe action in Japan.
Unfortunately these types of predictions are anecdotal, our window of time into them (moon...whale phenom coincidence) is microscopic in terms of how the geological record is recorded.

FourPoints · Mar 20, 2011

Witzend said:
Think of the pacific plate as a big bell, you bang on it on one side and it vibrates on the other. Of course it is not a perfect analogy because of the time involved between the measured events, but you have to wonder if more stress has now built up along the slip fault along N.A. as a result of the severe action in Japan.
Unfortunately these types of predictions are anecdotal, our window of time into them (moon...whale phenom coincidence) is microscopic in terms of how the geological record is recorded.

It is also possible (and just that, another possibility, with no implication of fact made) that the 3 quakes that have already occurred have not increased, but in fact decreased and released some of that pressure on the PNW plate boundary and reduced the likelyhood of a quake occurring now...

When the cascadia subduction fault goes (not if, but when), the geologic evidence suggests the quake will be as large as a 9.5 or higher (if my memory of an old national geographic show is correct).... It will be far more devastating than the Japan quake. The best estimate of when it will happen is that they are guessing something like a 50/50 chance of it happening in our lifetime, and an 80/20 chance it will happen in our kids lifetime.

Witzend · Mar 20, 2011

FourPoints said:
It is also possible (and just that, another possibility, with no implication of fact made) that the 3 quakes that have already occurred have not increased, but in fact decreased and released some of that pressure on the PNW plate boundary and reduced the likelyhood of a quake occurring now...

Good point, the interactions are not well understood, so in fact it may have helped relieve tension. My point being that what happens on on side of the plate affects the other.

Rick D · Mar 20, 2011

Re: Geologist predicts earthquake this week off No America C

Oh swell. As I sit here reading this thread, and living a very few miles from the San Andreas Fault, we have a little earthquake... increased the pucker factor a bit...

fstbttms · Mar 20, 2011

PipedreamV said:
It seems that "mother nature" is trying to destroy the earth!!!!!

I know you are joking, but I find it amusing that people think that the Earth will "end." The planet is going to be here, doing what it does, for many billions of years to come. At least until the sun goes nova and engulfs it. What will certainly end before that happens is our time on the this planet. Whether through our own stupidity (which seems likely) or from something Mother Nature has thrown at us, we will, at some point, end. But the Earth abides.

JohnShannon · Mar 20, 2011

Re: Geologist predicts earthquake this week off No America C

Witz, small quakes do almost nothing to relieve stress. The scale a log scale. So if we suppose there is an 8 lurking out there, how many mag 3 quakes would we need to reduce the 8 to a 7? The answer is 10,000.

So make sure you have some water and some shelter (camping gear) oh and a shotgun.
Hope this helps

Ross · Mar 20, 2011

Re: Geologist predicts earthquake this week off No America C

Plate tectonics is still an emerging science. The plates do not move evenly and often seem to jamb and not slip. When they jamb that section builds stress like a spring as the rest of the plate continues to move. Eventually all thing will break free and slip. In some cases with a very sudden release of the stress that built up for many years.