Full Pay for being WRONG at least half the time?

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Sep 6, 2007
324
Catalina 320 Gulfport, Fl
I would like to have a job where I can be wrong about 40 to 50% of the time and still get paid for it.

Spent the past 2 weeks sailing from St Pete to the Keys and back up. Much of it was a perfect sail. A low front was coming through and I was close to having to get back to work so decisions had to be made about leaving Key West and heading back. Do we wait one more night or just get going and have a more leisurely return, stopping a couple of nights rather than just sailing straight through.

Listened to the weather report, which was a follows. The high in the area will exit with a low coming into the area. Scattered thunder storms expected with winds expected to be 20 to 25. Well we thought no problem. Winds are easily handled by this boat with a reefed main and a reefed jib. As we left winds were light enough we motor sailed with the engine at 1500 rpm and the sails giving as speed of about 6.5 kts. We wanted to stop at Marco Island, but the winds were so low and we were afraid of picking up a crab pot with the screw turning, so we decided to make land fall at Charlotte Harbor where we could see the crab pots while we came in.

Back to the weather service. He is what we got. 18 miles off shore to miss pots past the 10 fathom line. We started to get wind 25 - 30 KTS as expected reffed the main and began to set the jib. Lightening began to flash to the East North and West of us. We knew with lightening comes high winds. Doused the main, and ran on engine alone. This seemed like too much lightening. Maybe we should head back South for a while to let this pass. Too late the lightening is now behind us as well.

There was no light front coming through and these were not scattered thunder storms. We were hit with 40+ kts of wind. 60kt gusts. This went on for between an hour, and an hour and a half. Lightening all around us. Rain so hard we could not see the bow of the boat. All of this at 2:30 AM when it was as dark as possible. How we did not get struck...I guess God loves sailors and fools. That night we were both. We and the boat made it through with nothing more than a good story.

We would not have been there if we would have had an accurate forecast. Why is it these guys get full pay for half a job?
 

Ross

.
Jun 15, 2004
14,693
Islander/Wayfairer 30 sail number 25 Perryville,Md.
When I have heard these forecasts they generally said, " winds wnw at 20- 30 after midnight increasing to 25-35 and backing the nw, posibility of thunder stoms, winds higher during thunder stroms."
 

richk

.
Jan 24, 2007
495
Marlow-Hunter 37 Deep Creek off the Magothy River off ChesBay
I would like to have a job where I can be wrong about 40 to 50% of the time and still get paid for it.

Spent the past 2 weeks sailing from St Pete to the Keys and back up. Much of it was a perfect sail. A low front was coming through and I was close to having to get back to work so decisions had to be made about leaving Key West and heading back. Do we wait one more night or just get going and have a more leisurely return, stopping a couple of nights rather than just sailing straight through.

Listened to the weather report, which was a follows. The high in the area will exit with a low coming into the area. Scattered thunder storms expected with winds expected to be 20 to 25. Well we thought no problem. Winds are easily handled by this boat with a reefed main and a reefed jib. As we left winds were light enough we motor sailed with the engine at 1500 rpm and the sails giving as speed of about 6.5 kts. We wanted to stop at Marco Island, but the winds were so low and we were afraid of picking up a crab pot with the screw turning, so we decided to make land fall at Charlotte Harbor where we could see the crab pots while we came in.

Back to the weather service. He is what we got. 18 miles off shore to miss pots past the 10 fathom line. We started to get wind 25 - 30 KTS as expected reffed the main and began to set the jib. Lightening began to flash to the East North and West of us. We knew with lightening comes high winds. Doused the main, and ran on engine alone. This seemed like too much lightening. Maybe we should head back South for a while to let this pass. Too late the lightening is now behind us as well.

There was no light front coming through and these were not scattered thunder storms. We were hit with 40+ kts of wind. 60kt gusts. This went on for between an hour, and an hour and a half. Lightening all around us. Rain so hard we could not see the bow of the boat. All of this at 2:30 AM when it was as dark as possible. How we did not get struck...I guess God loves sailors and fools. That night we were both. We and the boat made it through with nothing more than a good story.

We would not have been there if we would have had an accurate forecast. Why is it these guys get full pay for half a job?
so, I guess the lesson is don't listen to the weather forecast?
 

MrUnix

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Mar 24, 2010
626
Hunter 23 Gainesville, FL
Having lived in Florida for most of my life, I generally take 'scattered thunderstorms' to mean baton down the hatches and expect a torrential downpour closely followed by hurricane force winds and plenty of cats and dogs :)

Cheers,
Brad
 
Jan 3, 2009
821
Marine Trader 34 Where Ever I am
Patrick For years we have been outspoken critics of the NWS marine forecasts. Our unscientific onboard documentation had shown their forecasts to be wrong 80% of the time based on monitoring the forecast and actual conditions for the areas we were cruising in. So what are the options. We use all tools at our disposal, weather fax, local and online sources for weather maps and data, and several other sources. We then take that information we collect and put our own forecast together and base our go or no go decisions on that. We are right much more often, although weather forecasting is not an exact science no matter who the information comes from. But this also requires some knowledge and study, something boaters are not all to willing to do. It is much simpler to simply turn on the radio. Having said all of this the NWS is getting better at their wind forecasts. An example is a recent forecast for the Chesapeake put winds in the 5 to 25 knot range for the day. That way they are covered and probably pretty much correct no matter what the conditions. We find this kind of forecasting more and more on the VHF radio broadcasts.
 

druid

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Apr 22, 2009
837
Ontario 32 Pender Harbour
Oh, good grief - you have NOTHING to complain about! Here on the Wet Coast, I've been out in "variable 5 to 15" which turned out to be a gale, and been out in a "gale" and had to motor cuz there was no wind at all. On Wed, the forecast for this Sat was sunshine and +15C, today it's showers and +9. I think the weather forecast should have a "degree of confidence" associated with it, so when they really have no clue what's going to happen, they can just say so rather than out-and-out guessing.

druid - listening to Arrogant Worms "TV Weather Guy": http://www.arrogantworms.com/music/tv-weather-guy/
 

RichH

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Feb 14, 2005
4,773
Tayana 37 cutter; I20/M20 SCOWS Worton Creek, MD
The NOAA forecasts seem to be essentially 'lawyer based', so 'conservative' that no one can sue the 'gummint' due to faulty forecasting.

Hardly no one in the east coast cruising community believes them anymore; rather, most 'good' forecasting nowadays comes from (for fee) Chris Parker of Caribbean Wx or "Southbound II (Herb Hilgenberb), PassageWeather.com, Weatherunderground.com, etc. NOAA coastal forecasts are virtually worthless for the long distance cruiser mostly because they are soooooo unreliable as well as astonishingly unbelievable.
 
Dec 2, 2003
1,637
Hunter 376 Warsash, England --
Become a Banker

Join a Bank. You can get the worlds highest salary PLUS a tremendous "Performance Bonus" for being wrong 100% of the time - and we taxpayers will foot the bill.

Sorry to shout.

 
Oct 22, 2008
3,502
- Telstar 28 Buzzards Bay
or a car company...

Join a Bank. You can get the worlds highest salary PLUS a tremendous "Performance Bonus" for being wrong 100% of the time - and we taxpayers will foot the bill.

Sorry to shout.

 
Jan 22, 2008
880
Fed up w/ personal attacks I'm done with SBO
Play baseball. At bat you can fail 7 out of 10 times and still be in the hall of fame.
 
Jan 22, 2008
1,702
Hunter 34 Alameda CA
You can fool some of the people all the time,
and all of the people some of the time....and that is sufficient.
 

zeehag

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Mar 26, 2009
3,198
1976 formosa 41 yankee clipper santa barbara. ca.(not there)
lol welcome to the not one accurate assessment sailing club..lol.....never listen to noaa without excellent backup!!!!!!.......stormpulse, wunderground, passage, even weather channel!!!! anything---but make sure there are 3 different points of view before determining the weather and also--make sure ye looks at a picture so ye can see the mayhem coming at ye!!!!
we got stuck in many hellstorms this past year of cruising--i have been disliking floriduhs weather patterns more each day we were there lol...but we on way back to sunny kalifornikation--at least i am---phillip gets to listen to noaa say his boat in louseyanny is gonna be ok during a hurrycame ...... remember--a cat is the only critter i know of not ever been hit by lightning--i keep one with me alladatime when sailing....speshully off floriduh!!!! (poooor kitty)--btw--kat is the best weather teller i have found--he gets very excited an hour before it hits the fan....lol......feline 500 and everything, so i know something is coming....can he get paid????????
 

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druid

.
Apr 22, 2009
837
Ontario 32 Pender Harbour
lol welcome to the not one accurate assessment sailing club..lol.....never listen to noaa without excellent backup!!!!!!.......stormpulse, wunderground, passage, even weather channel!!!! anything---but make sure there are 3 different points of view before determining the weather and also--make sure ye looks at a picture so ye can see the mayhem coming at ye!!!!
AND - stick your nose out the window! I can usually tell if the forecast is going to be right or wrong based on local observations (clouds, wind direction, trends...) and 30 years of local knowledge. You don't need a roomful of computers and instruments to predict the weather.

druid - and if the cat's hiding under the couch, don't go out!
 

zeehag

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Mar 26, 2009
3,198
1976 formosa 41 yankee clipper santa barbara. ca.(not there)
kat is a character--lol is awesome good at weather!!! he is good with earthquakes and other stuff also----doesnt like strangers to approach his boat lol..... goooood bubby!!! since age 5 weeks has only lived on boat...is 4 yrs now...excellent guard animal--silent alarm...plays fetch and catch and walks on leash---sssshhhh--tell him is a tether lol.....

aaaahh-yes--the nose knows bestest!!!
 
Jan 4, 2009
45
Newport N28II Seabrook Ship Yard, TX
I don't remember where I read about this but the jist of the statistical study was that if you predict today's weather for tomorrow, you will be right twice as often as professional weather forecasters. That was very confidence inspiring :)
 

zeehag

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Mar 26, 2009
3,198
1976 formosa 41 yankee clipper santa barbara. ca.(not there)
lol like lightning never strikes same place twice!!! lol---gooood thing i has a cat's nose for weather forecasting--wish he could forecast more in advance lol....he is good for an hour!!!!--kinda why i like the sat and radar pix better than someones opinionated words--the opinions are often from the wrong place att the wrong time..LOL---poker anyone???!!!!
 

higgs

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Aug 24, 2005
3,736
Nassau 34 Olcott, NY
If noaa is not doing it for you, don't listen to them. Seems simple to me.
 

zeehag

.
Mar 26, 2009
3,198
1976 formosa 41 yankee clipper santa barbara. ca.(not there)
If noaa is not doing it for you, don't listen to them. Seems simple to me.
LOL another option is to be able to translate their phrases into what may just be reality--like...."slight chance of showers" in florida--means--LIGHTNING STORMS AND BIG RAIN --YOU WILL BE WET!!!! lol...seas diminishing to 2-4 ft from 5-7 ft means that there will be a pooping sea of 10 ft at 0300.
wind direction changes --take with large grain of salt--at best--although sometimes they are spot on....lol.....
when the voice ceases to be mechanical---RUN LIKE HELL!!! to the nearest safe harbor!!!!
and when they say "mariners seek immediate shelter" at 0200---pack a ditch bag--will be a helluva ride!!!!--at least lightning will light your way !! LOL.....

sometimes is not possible to obtain alternative weather forecasts and their words must be heard.....have fun, kids and smooooth sailing!!!!!
 
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