• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Embrace the freeze.

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
22,333
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Stepped out this AM to a clear sky, 27ºF (-3ºC). There is a brisk wind biting me under my fleece. It is 06:00. Still dark here on the 45th Parallel at this time of year. The rain from yesterday has gone. The Humidity is so low that I charge up walking on the nylon carpet with my wool socks and discharge on the dog. We both jump.

What is causing this weather phenomena? Feels like those Canadians are sending their Yukon Chill south again. Start the Windy App...

The surface temps confirm You guys in the Northern Midwest and East coast are cold today.
All that blue and purple is 15º to -5ºF (-10 to -20º C)
Image 1-29-23 at 7.08 AM.jpeg


What is bringing the Yukon Cold south? Well a couple of causes. The current High pressure cells are strong in Alaska and the Yukon of Canada. They rotate clockwise. That clockwise rotation and the close proximity of these cells provide strong pressure gradients that compact and resolve in increased wind flow.

1675005976916.png


How are these highs affecting the artmosphere? Well they are disrupting the normal pattern of the Arctic jet stream.
A normal strong Arctic Jet stream tracks along the 60th Parallel.
1675006254900.png


Todays image shows how it has been disrupted. This is the Jet at 30,000 ft (9,000m). The white areas are wind speed in excess of 100knots.
1675004901766.png


What does all this mean... Well since Ground Hog Day is only 4 days away our weather buddy Punxsutawney Phil is likely to come out of his warm hole take one look at the sun and head back into his warm nest for another 6 weeks. Unlike our intrepid retired leader @Phil Herring who is likely to see clouds and hope this all will pass in 2 weeks.

Ain't weather fun.
 

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
22,333
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
I am ready for spring, I want to get on with my boat projects.

I am beginning to wonder if @Leeward Rail and @Meriachee have conspired rigging some great big windmill to blow the chill out of the Arctic and down on to my Marina. I keep getting these messages. Preparing for Marina Freeze. Shutting everything down.
 
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Likes: Leeward Rail

DaveJ

.
Apr 2, 2013
470
Catalina 310 Niagara-on-the-Lake
I live on the Great Lakes, but right now it’s 82F here in Aruba…..
Cheers
dj
 
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Likes: jssailem

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
22,333
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
I feel the concern Len.
I got the warning from my marina. Water shutting off, marina to freeze. Sounded a lot like the 2019 message at the beginning of our sailing adventure into the worst winter storm in BC.
 
Mar 20, 2015
3,177
C&C 30 Mk1 Winnipeg
Recently the news up here was all about. "Polar Vortex coming”
Worded as if it was just a colder extreme storm system, not something that normally traps the real cold air up north.

I wanted to email them all. I suspect they just like the terminology.


The names like Yukon Chill are interesting.
They always seem to be chosen to blame others... Hehe.

For example, when we get hit with a storm it is often a "Colorado Low", even though the low can originate in New Mexico. Why do we blame Colorado ? They seem like nice enough folk.

We blame the rocky mountain regions for sending us storms... They blame British Columbia.

Who's really to blame !!?
:biggrin:
 
Mar 20, 2015
3,177
C&C 30 Mk1 Winnipeg
I am ready for spring, I want to get on with my boat projects.
Spring isn't allowed until my parts arrive.

Currently -25C wind NW@12knts
Forecast -33C tonight.

Next Monday, Tues,.Wed...supposedly near -1C ..
 
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WayneH

.
Jan 22, 2008
1,081
Tartan 37 287 Pensacola, FL
Growing up in Houston, my mom would call them the "Alberta Clipper" and said that there was nothing between us and the North Pole but a three strand barb wire fence.
 

DaveJ

.
Apr 2, 2013
470
Catalina 310 Niagara-on-the-Lake
Spring isn't allowed until my parts arrive.

Currently -25C wind NW@12knts
Forecast -33C tonight.

Next Monday, Tues,.Wed...supposedly near -1C ..

I guess that’s why it’s called
Winterpeg
 
Mar 20, 2015
3,177
C&C 30 Mk1 Winnipeg
I guess that’s why it’s called
Winterpeg
Yup.

Interestingly, some places south of us have colder winter weather.

And there are periods when parts of the Yukon has warmer weather in winter.

The wonders of the jet stream, mountain ranges, and proximity to water.

Compared to the east, our weather is usually stable. No ice storms, or lake effect snow. Normally just blue sky and cold.

People we meet are often surprised when they find out how much of a winter to summer temp range, the midwest/prairies get.
They assume it's always cold. Especially with the embraced nickname of Winterpeg.
 
Mar 20, 2015
3,177
C&C 30 Mk1 Winnipeg
Growing up in Houston, my mom would call them the "Alberta Clipper" and said that there was nothing between us and the North Pole but a three strand barb wire fence.
Interesting... I didn't realize the lows that form near the Alberta Rockies got that far south.

The Colorado Lows go much further south, and occasionally as far north as 49.

Hmm. Blue Norther is a term I haven't heard of.
 
Jan 7, 2011
5,292
Oday 322 East Chicago, IN
Not bad in Maui…way better than Chicago!

I took my scuba diving certification class over the summer, and at the end, I had to complete 4 open water dives. They dive in a cold, dark, poor visibility rock quarry. I said, hey, I am going to be in Hawaii in January, can I do my open water dives there? We set up a referral dive agreement with Maui Dreams here in Hawaii, amd I finished my open water certification here in the warm waters of Maui, listening to whale song in the distance!



Aloha,

Greg
 
Sep 25, 2018
259
Catalina Capri 22 Capri EXPO 14.2 1282 Stony Point
Blue Norther is a ski term describing solid ice that looks blue. Ski the rough stuff as if it is blue your skis better be as sharp as a razor or you will become one with the blue.
 
Mar 20, 2015
3,177
C&C 30 Mk1 Winnipeg
Brrrrrr.
water temp in Maui was about 70F even at depth.

Going out again Saturday for another dive around Molokini…a 1/2 volcano crater.
Aw man... Rub it in... :waycool::biggrin:

Brrr is right ! The lake can be cold much of the year due to it's depth, with low visibility. Like any challenge in life, the harder or more uncomfortable that training is, the better. Like driving on perfect summer roads vs snow and ice. Or 10 knot winds vs 35.

I always tell friends to do their open water here for that reason. Most ignore me. LOL.