Down turn in the financial markets and FED money at 0%, what will that mean for boat prices.

BillyK · Mar 18, 2020

if we get into a real recession out of this.. yes.. boat prices will go down. its all going to depend on how long things are shut down. If it stays shut down for two months, the recovery will take longer. There will be people getting out of boats as their income disappears or takes longer to come back to preshutdown levels.

Don S/V ILLusion · Mar 18, 2020

Buy Amazon stock instead

rgranger · Mar 18, 2020

BillyK said:
if we get into a real recession out of this.. yes.. boat prices will go down. its all going to depend on how long things are shut down. If it stays shut down for two months, the recovery will take longer. There will be people getting out of boats as their income disappears or takes longer to come back to preshutdown levels.

Two months.... crazy. We will be lucky if this turns around by August. :facepalm:

(Hey look! I got to use the new face-palm emoji)

dlochner · Mar 18, 2020

Time to rebalance.

I doubt it will make a significant difference in the boat market. Lower interest rates make expensive boats easier to afford. Except for the high levels of corporate debt, most of the economy was doing OK. Although the trade wars were causing havoc with the shipping industry and supply chain.

The folks that will be looking to sell quickly will be those who are over indebted and have a vulnerable job. Others will just not launch their boat or scale back its use. The bargain boats will be trailerable power boats that were bought on impulse in the last few years with large loans.

Rich Stidger · Mar 18, 2020

FWIW, I think that all markets for boats, cars, homes, literally anything that costs more than $1000 will be affected by both a price/value decline and time to sell. Regardless of the health of the banks (unlike 2008) people will be very hesitant to buy or commit to any large purchase. Worse case- this could be as bad as 1930 and may not recover in some of our lifetimes.

I hope I am wrong.

dlochner · Mar 18, 2020

Rich Stidger said:
FWIW, I think that all markets for boats, cars, homes, literally anything that costs more than $1000 will be affected by both a price/value decline and time to sell. Regardless of the health of the banks (unlike 2008) people will be very hesitant to buy or commit to any large purchase. Worse case- this could be as bad as 1930 and may not recover in some of our lifetimes.

I hope I am wrong.

I"m not as pessimistic. That last economic crisis is fresh enough in our memories that we have learned a few things. In the 2008-09 crisis Congress was hesitant to spend money or stimulate the economy and too worried about the national debt, the result was a long slow recovery. No body wants that now. Since the Senate no longer thinks increasing the national debt is a problem, the money will keep flowing until the virus threat is reduced and the panic subsides.

Given the run on TP, investing in TP futures would not seem to be a good investment. That market is going to decline before it returns to prior levels.

dlochner · Mar 18, 2020

The volatility in the market is being driven by herd behavior and panic and uncertainty and conflicting stories about the severity of the pandemic, more or less in that order.

JRT · Mar 18, 2020

Having a positive attitude and not over reacting to me is key.

Maine Sail · Mar 18, 2020

Here in Portland folks are being crushed by this financially and small and large business are already folding like paper airplanes.. A good friend, who owns a pretty large food related business, almost 200 employees, laid off all but a skeleton crew yesterday. They went from being a financially solvent successful 27 year old business to unable to buy inventory and pay employees and the bank, in just three days.

I was also speaking with a friend who is a yacht broker and he said he has fielded calls from about 20 boatowners in the last two days alone who want out. He normally lists one to four boats per month. This could drive prices down for sure, but who's buying.

My neighbor who owns a hotel franchise for Maine and part of NH, which is normally a booming huge money making business, had an occupancy, as of yesterday, of 6%. They normally have no rooms available and are typically booked sold. He just finished a 7 figure mandatory renovation project (mandated by the company) and he is pretty scared right now. He also laid off some employees yesterday.

The washout from this is going to sting for a while I suspect. If you have any cash, I would spend it very wisely.

dLj · Mar 18, 2020

This is hitting the food and hotel industry heavily. New York has closed all restaurants - they can only sell to-go orders, no one can have an open restaurant for sitting down to eat. That's statewide. New Jersey is following suit, I understand. Bergen County New Jersey, located along the New York border, has mandated all non-critical businesses to close. Critical businesses are pharmacys and food stores.

There will be far reaching repercussions to this one. And it's only just beginning right now, the worst is yet to hit, at least that's what the pundits predict.

dj

Don S/V ILLusion · Mar 18, 2020

Talked to an American x-pat
ham radio friend near Whuhan yesterday. No new cases and the government hadn’t (according to him) done anywhere near the proactive response ours has. Now, manufacturing opening and life starting to return to normal indicating they may be on the descending side of the Bell curve already.

Draw your own conclusions - end of the beginning or beginning of the end? Too early to say but it appears the latter there at least.

Please refrain from political garbage - statements like “poor. leadership at the Federal level” reflects poorly only on anyone who writes that.

dLj · Mar 18, 2020

Interesting read on history:

How U.S. Cities Tried to Halt the Spread of the 1918 Spanish Flu

How U.S. city officials responded to the Spanish flu played a critical role in how many residents lived—and died.

www.history.com

dj

dlochner · Mar 18, 2020

In 2014 the CDC published a Crisis and Emergency Risk Communication handbook. It is rather long and explicit at some 450 pages, however it provides an excellent framework for communicating about crises. For those of us on the receiving end of crisis communication it is a good reality check on ourselves and how we are responding and how to assess the communications we receive. With the advent of social media and intentional disinformation campaigns by malevolent actors, knowing what good communication looks like can help prevent us from falling prey to those actors. It's a long read, but what the heck, we're all sitting around being socially distant might as well be doing something productive. (Full disclosure, I did read through the first chapter and skimmed the second. Both chapters were well written and informative. Perhaps I'll attack the remaining 400 pages later or go rebuild my winches.)

rgranger · Mar 18, 2020

Rich Stidger said:
FWIW, I think that all markets for boats, cars, homes, literally anything that costs more than $1000 will be affected by both a price/value decline and time to sell. Regardless of the health of the banks (unlike 2008) people will be very hesitant to buy or commit to any large purchase. Worse case- this could be as bad as 1930 and may not recover in some of our lifetimes.

I hope I am wrong.

I don't think you are wrong and I think it is worth considering what "recover" will look like. Major disruptive events usually change society in permanent ways. Sometimes good, sometimes bad.

Phil Herring · Mar 18, 2020

Just a reminder: political discussions are not permitted here. If you find yourself typing about voting, politicians, elected officials, or political parties, you're doing it wrong.

<------ Trust me, you don't want those 16" guns trained on you.

Thanks!

dlochner · Mar 18, 2020

@Phil Herring Thanks for the reminder (threat?).

Tally Ho · Mar 18, 2020

In Indiana and Illinois, all restaurants, bars, schools, theaters and churches are closed. I just read that JP Morgan Chase has closed 1/5 of their bank branches. I read that some car manufacturers are shutting down their assembly lines.

This seems to be an unprecedented financial crisis (other than the stock market crash in 1929). And it sort of feels that this could trigger a similar depression.

I am glad my boat is paid for, and my slip is paid for for 2020.

I am also glad I sail a sailboat and probably won’t need to put fuel in Tally Ho all summer

My company has now asked all employees to work remote...and I expect to make Tally Ho my new “office“ once I can get her in the water.

This is a surreal time.

Greg

Down turn in the financial markets and FED money at 0%, what will that mean for boat prices.

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John

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SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John

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SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John

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