I use two sources for weather, NOAA and the BIS Portal from UW. BIS is usually very accurate, moreso than NOAA. However, I noticed that when it comes to the upper end of wind scale, both lack sadly. For instance. There was a Gale Warnng posted when we set sail from Elliot Bay bound for Anacortes (Skyline Marina) and the upper end was 30 knots in the evening. It was 15 knots at 9AM when we left as forcast and built throughout the day also as forcast. However, by 5 PM, it had exceeded the forcast and was at 40 knots gusting to 55 knots with 10-12' seas rather than the forcast 5-7' seas. This made for a very interesting beam reach to our bolt hole at Port Townsend. As we ploughed into 12' seas at WOT to douse sails I noticed the Kingston ferry couldn't get more than 200' off the dock and had to go back. Ya know it's crappy when a 300' 1200 ton ferry has to quit. Regardless, we delt with it and docked safely without damage or injury. We had a great sail though, averaging 7.25 knots on a boat with a 6.7 knot hull speed. We saw 9.6 surfing at times and spent hours over 7 on a broad reach. The only issue was the heaviness of the rudder with big following seas so we rotated once in a while. I reckon it was a great test for the boat. No creaks, groans or shudders and the bilge pump only cycled twice in two days. Not bad for a 1961 wooden yawl.
Do you trust the weather models?
- Thread starter CharlieCobra
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I do hope that you had the sails deeply reefed
and everyone was wearing PFD's. Your passage speaks well of the boat. I am not sure what you can do when the weather exceeds the forecast. Seems like it happens to us more often than not. "Forecast wind 10-15".. reality, winds 15-20 or just as frustrating, Forecast winds 5-10 but reality 2-5 .
and everyone was wearing PFD's. Your passage speaks well of the boat. I am not sure what you can do when the weather exceeds the forecast. Seems like it happens to us more often than not. "Forecast wind 10-15".. reality, winds 15-20 or just as frustrating, Forecast winds 5-10 but reality 2-5 .
Try Intellicast
Sounds like it was wild ride, glad to see you got in safely. Try www.intellicast.com they do a nice job of forecasting. The site provides some nice options, including one for the wind. While they all miss the mark as a rule of thumb, this one seems to be fairly accurate.
Sounds like it was wild ride, glad to see you got in safely. Try www.intellicast.com they do a nice job of forecasting. The site provides some nice options, including one for the wind. While they all miss the mark as a rule of thumb, this one seems to be fairly accurate.
Do your own forecasting .....
You can start with the "Mariners Weather Handbook" - Dashews. Quite 'technical' but does present a clear and excellent text for the serious mariner. Once you gain such understanding you can 'adjust' the broadcast predictions for 'local effects' and potential weather 'anomalies'. At least with such a background gained from such a text you can better estimate the 'potentials' that many times are not included with broadcast predictions.
You can start with the "Mariners Weather Handbook" - Dashews. Quite 'technical' but does present a clear and excellent text for the serious mariner. Once you gain such understanding you can 'adjust' the broadcast predictions for 'local effects' and potential weather 'anomalies'. At least with such a background gained from such a text you can better estimate the 'potentials' that many times are not included with broadcast predictions.
Check This Out
This link is to a UW website that has the best weather data available for the Pacific Northwest. Be forewarned it requires good weather knowledge to understand it. The parts of best use to you are the High Resolution forecasts and the NW regional observations. I find the models to be as good as it gets. Winds are particularly difficult to predict in the NW. The geography plays a huge part in wind strength in localized areas. While these models do take into account the topography it is not perfect.
This link is to a UW website that has the best weather data available for the Pacific Northwest. Be forewarned it requires good weather knowledge to understand it. The parts of best use to you are the High Resolution forecasts and the NW regional observations. I find the models to be as good as it gets. Winds are particularly difficult to predict in the NW. The geography plays a huge part in wind strength in localized areas. While these models do take into account the topography it is not perfect.
Yeah, we had PFD's on from the get go,
no exceptions. We started with Genoa, Main and Mizzen full up and switched to the Club footed staysail when it got above 30 knots. We also put a single reef in then as that's all she needed. In retrospec, we should've reefed the main again and the staysail after we found that slightly calmer spot we found before all hell broke loose. Well, hindsight's 20/20.
no exceptions. We started with Genoa, Main and Mizzen full up and switched to the Club footed staysail when it got above 30 knots. We also put a single reef in then as that's all she needed. In retrospec, we should've reefed the main again and the staysail after we found that slightly calmer spot we found before all hell broke loose. Well, hindsight's 20/20.
More accurate
No weather forcast is 100% accurate, but I have found that Sailflow.com is more accurate in predicting wind strength than the NOAA forcasts for my area (Long Island Sound). I use a combination of sailflow and the live radar weather pictures available on weatherunderground.com to decide if I should go sailing or stay home.
No weather forcast is 100% accurate, but I have found that Sailflow.com is more accurate in predicting wind strength than the NOAA forcasts for my area (Long Island Sound). I use a combination of sailflow and the live radar weather pictures available on weatherunderground.com to decide if I should go sailing or stay home.
Sailflow
I like Sailflow. In my experience, it's the most accurate, both for the lake as a whole and for micro-climates near shore.
I like Sailflow. In my experience, it's the most accurate, both for the lake as a whole and for micro-climates near shore.
Sailflow
Any forecaster who routinely plots actual wind speed and direction against their forecast in public must be pretty confident in their ability. Peter H23 "Raven"
Any forecaster who routinely plots actual wind speed and direction against their forecast in public must be pretty confident in their ability. Peter H23 "Raven"
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