Couple of Possibilities
First, I'm going to restate things the way I think you're saying they happened. You removed one of the upper shrouds (the "outer" is actually an upper), and tied a halyard in its place. No wind during the interval, but when you came back, the lower shroud was broken at the turnbuckle. I'm going to assume the halyard was tied loosely. If so, that's a mistake. It should be tied as firm as possible, to emulate the shroud.You didn't mention whether or not the main was still on the boom, but if so, that alone could have been the culprit. When you pull one of the shrouds, you want all the wind catching devices off the mast.Just guessing here, but here goes:Either (or a combination of both) an unexpected wind or a heavy enough wake to rock the boat. Moving sideways increases the "weight" of the mast on that side of the boat. Might have been enough to pull it on over. Another possibility, though we wouldn't like to think this could happen - Someone boarded your boat, grabbing the shroud on the side that had both. That pulled the mast over enough to get the weight going against the halyard, and pulled it over. Guy (or gal) panicked when they saw the splash, and went on their way.Again, can only guess.