• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Counterclockwise spinner just SE of Cozumel?

kloudie1

kloudie1

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Nov 6, 2006
9,900
Hunter 34 Mandeville Louisiana
Any comments on that this morning? I see no low charted but it seems to be getting better organized..
 
D

dlochner

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Jan 11, 2014
11,474
Sabre 362 113 Fair Haven, NY
Windy.com shows a low over central LA with winds from SE feeding it from both sides of Cuba.
 
D

dlochner

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Jan 11, 2014
11,474
Sabre 362 113 Fair Haven, NY
kloudie1 said:
I might be a little jumpy! The sky may be falling..
Click to expand
Well, it has been a quiet season. I'm sure everyone in your neck of the woods are waiting for the other shoe to drop after the past few seasons.
 
JamesG161

JamesG161

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Feb 14, 2014
7,446
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
I have avoided posting on these Tropical waves. Especially forecasts beyond 10 days.

The spot to watch is as @kloudie pointed out

South of Cuba.

Lot of Heat there now.

ohc_aQG3_latest_natl-2.gif


Also NOAA downgraded their May Season forecast. More to come on that change by John and me.

@kloudie1 switch your windy.com model to ECMWF vs GFS.;)

Jim...
 
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jssailem

jssailem

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Oct 22, 2014
21,145
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Looking out the next 10 days (30% probability at best as you move beyond 5 days), the only TS that is developing is out in the Atlantic. It is forecasted to head towards the Domican Republic. By Sept 4'th the long range forecast has it forming into a cyclonic structure and dropping in pressure. We will be watching this development. It is presently not moving very fast.
Screen Shot 2022-08-26 at 8.13.11 AM.png
 
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JamesG161

JamesG161

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Feb 14, 2014
7,446
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
You all are looking to far out. So I post this for you.

Chicken Little

Please use ECMWF or better yet ICON models.

The News cycle will give plenty of warning.

Plus "DAMMIT JIM" is watching.

But a good time to prepare for the 2022 Season.;)
Jim...
 
smokey73

smokey73

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Oct 26, 2010
1,906
Hunter 40.5 Beaufort, SC
"Dammit Jim" looking for some perspective here. I'm going away from my boat on a mooring until about the 17th or 18th of September, leaving on this Tuesday. I have "prepared the boat" by taking off the Genoa, binding up the StackPak very tightly, removed the canvas and removed the Anchor. Hopefully this will all be for naught and there won't be a storm crashing down on Beaufort SC but I just don't feel good leaving it that long to a place where I can't get back quickly.
 
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shemandr

shemandr

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Jan 1, 2006
7,086
Slickcraft 26 Sailfish
"Dammit Jim, I'm a weather forecaster". Not a weather controller.
Jim correctly predicted fair weather for my wife's 70'th birthday five years ago while a tropical cyclone event was threatening. And we had a great party. Since we've had health storms which made the tropical weather pale in comparison. Another this past weekend. If you are healthy, enjoy it.
 
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