• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Chesapeake Bay Area. Possibilities

jssailem

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
22,254
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
At the request of member @DRhoads im going to make an attempt to provide some thoughts about the future weather.

DRhoads said:
Can we get one of these for the mid Atlantic? Like Chesapeake Bay area.
Click to expand
This may be a fool’s attempt but here goes.

This weekend looks to provide cool dry sunny conditions. Sailing winds Saturday and Morning hours Sunday. Monday play hooky. It is looking to be a beautiful fall day. Temps in the low to mid 50’s. Plenty of sunshine. Winds forecast 6-10 with gusts in the mid teens. Time to finish preparing got winter, go for a last of the season sail or play that close of season golf game.

After an early morning shower Tuesday morning, more sunshine is expected.

Wednesday, winter returns courtesy of the West. Coast Low storm cell that brought rain to California. The cell slipped through Texas gathering energy and moisture. Up the Tennessee Valley and north into Virginia to follow the early week nice conditions.
Temps will drop into the 40’s, clouds cover the skies over the mid Bay bringing the rain for Thanksgiving day and Black Friday.
 
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DRhoads

DRhoads

.
Apr 12, 2007
198
Hunter 420 Herrington Harbor South
You de Man !!!
Thank you for the excellent review and making the extra effort for us Easterners.
jssailem said:
Monday play hooky. It is looking to be a beautiful fall day.
Click to expand
I was there yesterday, and you nailed it.
 
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jssailem

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
22,254
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
I mentioned that temps will drop. Just saw this post showing the Yukon chill coming south to give the Mid-west to the East coast a Winter start to December.
1732684489311.png
 
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jssailem

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
22,254
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
DR thanks for the observation. Glad you had a fun day. Happy Thanksgiving. Now open the attic and get out the winter clothes. Maybe one of those LL Bean jackets.
 
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jssailem

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
22,254
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Today looks great. Enjoy while you can.

NOAA creates weather maps. This one shows the size of the high-pressure cells that brought us enjoyable weather today.

1732724002833.png


The nice weather will move eastward and be replaced by storms and Arctic chill. This one suggests that those puddles of water around the house could freeze.

Have a Happy Thanksgiving, all.
 
jssailem

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
22,254
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
It is Friday. Lets try to create an outlook...

Cold series of weather fronts interspersed with colder clear days of sunshine. WHAT? Miserable cold then Sunny then COLD. WHY?

Well the current set up of the steering winds that move these weather experiences is set up to bring the chill from our Canadian friends to the Midwest and East coast. Here is a look at the wind pattern from 5500 Meters (500hPa).
IMG_0272.png IMG_0271.png IMG_0270.png
I spaced the images a couple of days apart. The basic pattern does not change. The High (cold/clear days) are followed by Lows (cold/stormy days) as the winds blow these cells like falling leaves out of the NorthWest and to the SouthEast.

Be ready for ice forming on the cold clear nights.

Good time to have a book and a warm fireplace to sit by. Or... bundle up and go get your Christmas Goose. They should be flying south the next two weeks. The Chesapeake is a major fly way.
 
DRhoads

DRhoads

.
Apr 12, 2007
198
Hunter 420 Herrington Harbor South
Thank you, Gentlemen.
Also, for those looking forward to the boat parades this weekend best bundle up. Forecast is moderate winds (7-13) with temperatures around 27 degrees. That is a lot of chill even with no wind so have lots of your favorite warm beverages or even some chili.
Check spinsheet.com for times and locations.
 
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jssailem

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
22,254
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Welcome DR to the Weather Forum.
We have been chatting about expanding our weather coverage. DR has agreed to help with a look at the weather for sailors in the Chesapeake Bay. We will center our focus around Annapolis as it provides a mid-bay location and a fair number of folk interested in sailing the waters. Our goal is to build our skills in weather forecasting for one to two-week periods.

All sailors are welcome to add their observations. Weather reporting is all about observations.

Thanks, DR.

John and James
 
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jssailem

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
22,254
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Supporting DR's look at what may be in store for the next couple of days.

These two patterns are developing.
Windy (using the Euro model) shows a Low and High pressure systems battle over the Midwest. Over the next 48 hours, these titans will clash and move eastward. They will compress along their edges creating a squeeze zone. (I know not really a weather term.) On the surface, along this line of intersection, we will experience strong gusty winds, such as the winds in the Low spin counterclockwise and the winds in the High spin clockwise. The wind speeds forecasted are in the box along the bottom of the screen

Screenshot 2024-12-04 at 7.35.51 AM.png



The NOAA GFS model shows the same pattern. The Southern High cell may squeeze in over the area first, bringing clear skies and forcing the Low to stall.

Screenshot 2024-12-04 at 7.54.15 AM.png


Trying to forecast the weather is an imperfect science.
 
jssailem

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
22,254
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Can you record the windspeeds? It promises to be a concentrated condition. Maybe localized. But looks to me to be covering a fairly large area. It is worse along the lines where the two cells contact. If the High does squeeze eastward, the line would shift from West/East to SW/NE
 
kappykaplan

kappykaplan

.
May 1, 2011
4,747
Pearson 37 Lusby MD
Boat's on the hard, so will not be able to record with my equipment. I may be able to capture some data from the Solomons wx buoy.
 
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P

pgandw

.
Oct 14, 2023
94
Stuart (ODay) Mariner 19 Yeopim Creek
Several stations on the Weather Underground within a mile or 3 of me on Albemarle Sound. However, none of them provide good wind speed indications - especially from certain directions - due to the presence of trees/forests. I use these sites for local rainfall amounts, and frontal passages and boundaries (wind direction and barometer).

NWS has gale warning posted for NC sounds (all of them) for midnight tonight through 1PM tomorrow (Thursday 5 Dec).

Wx underground site directly on Albemarle Sound north shore currently showing winds SSW at 13kts, so winds are going to ramp up in a hurry if warnings are accurate.

Fred W
 
Last edited:
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kappykaplan

kappykaplan

.
May 1, 2011
4,747
Pearson 37 Lusby MD
Here's a screen capture of some of the history from the Solomon Wx Buoy:
Solomons_Wx_Buoy_1855_20241204.jpg

You can see that the barometric pressure has been falling all afternoon.
 
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kappykaplan

kappykaplan

.
May 1, 2011
4,747
Pearson 37 Lusby MD
And here's some history from Cove Point, just around the corner. It's a little more open, so higher wind speeds.
Cove_Point_Wx_Buoy_1910_20241204png.png
 
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jssailem

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
22,254
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Currently, the Barometric Pressure of the Low, centered somewhere up near Sudbury CA, is 29.30.

The forecast is that the pressure will drop in the Annapolis area to about 29.77 by mid-day Thursday. That will be when the winds, out of the East, will reach their peaks. Sustained winds in the low 20's with gusts 30-40knts. With temps around 36º midday with the wind chill it will feel like 26º
 
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kappykaplan

kappykaplan

.
May 1, 2011
4,747
Pearson 37 Lusby MD
Here's some overnight history from the Solomons Wx Buoy - winds have picked up some, but will be higher later today. Barometric pressure has continued to drop.
Solomons_Wx_Buoy_0501_20241205.jpg
 
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