Reading this subject heading may have you asking, has John taken up smoking some of that Oregon funny weed and too much booze?
No. I have been considering, with Jim, an understanding of the 2021 Hurricane season and what we posted. In light of our predictions, how can we improve in 2022. You might ask what does that have to do with us not sailing in hurricane waters.
Let us start at anchorage's.
How you react when the CG/NOAA forecast says "winds tonight 40-55 knots", may determine being a part of a "rat's nest of anchor chains" or an observer of the resultant calamity.
Though I follow the weather patterns in the Puget Sound. I can reasonably determine what happens when the local winds start to blow out of the south. On September 28, 2021 with forecast winds above 45 knots I decided tie up in the marina until the 29th. I could not understand the VHF weather forecast of 70 km winds crossing Vancouver Island on the 5th and 6th of October. I lacked reference context for the stated conditions. This took me outside my comfort zone. Instead of extending my stay to visit folk further north in Maple Bay, I instead chose to head south and avoid the storm. Escaping the potential issues of getting caught in an extended storm. Cutting my Canadian trip short felt like good seamanship. As it turned out the storm was short lived (12 hours) and I could have extended my visit. This gives me food for thought and future cruising.
Weather safe cruising requires our attention to the Macro conditions driving the weather patterns we are observing. We need to identify the starting conditions, record the information, and follow the condition's development over time. This influences our ability to use the data in future events.
One of my favorite sources is Windy.com. You can open the map and graphically see the weather patterns over a large area of the world. You can then follow, up to 4 different modeling resources, over multiple days projecting the possible weather to affect your safe sailing experience.
This is what helps us cruising sailors adapt our sailing plans to the safety of our boat and crew.
…. Next up Micro weather considerations.
No. I have been considering, with Jim, an understanding of the 2021 Hurricane season and what we posted. In light of our predictions, how can we improve in 2022. You might ask what does that have to do with us not sailing in hurricane waters.
Let us start at anchorage's.
"The anchorage, if the wind hits, could become a dangerous and expensive rat’s nest of tangled anchor chains, each attached to a different boat, each under the command of an opinionated captain. The only certain qualification of the captains, the single item that certifies them as mariners, is that they all had the means to acquire a boat"
Streever, Bill. And Soon I Heard a Roaring Wind (p. 229).
How you react when the CG/NOAA forecast says "winds tonight 40-55 knots", may determine being a part of a "rat's nest of anchor chains" or an observer of the resultant calamity.
- Despite common misconceptions, chaos theory is deterministic. Two identical starting points will follow exactly the same track.
Though I follow the weather patterns in the Puget Sound. I can reasonably determine what happens when the local winds start to blow out of the south. On September 28, 2021 with forecast winds above 45 knots I decided tie up in the marina until the 29th. I could not understand the VHF weather forecast of 70 km winds crossing Vancouver Island on the 5th and 6th of October. I lacked reference context for the stated conditions. This took me outside my comfort zone. Instead of extending my stay to visit folk further north in Maple Bay, I instead chose to head south and avoid the storm. Escaping the potential issues of getting caught in an extended storm. Cutting my Canadian trip short felt like good seamanship. As it turned out the storm was short lived (12 hours) and I could have extended my visit. This gives me food for thought and future cruising.
What chaos theory points out is that hitting two identical starting points is all but impossible. Current weather is never an exact carbon copy of previous weather, and future weather will never be an exact carbon copy of current weather. Very small differences lead to very large and unpredictable differences. It is a matter of accuracy and time horizons—the more accurate the input, and the shorter the time horizon, the more predicable the outcomes.
Streever, Bill. And Soon I Heard a Roaring Wind
Weather safe cruising requires our attention to the Macro conditions driving the weather patterns we are observing. We need to identify the starting conditions, record the information, and follow the condition's development over time. This influences our ability to use the data in future events.
One of my favorite sources is Windy.com. You can open the map and graphically see the weather patterns over a large area of the world. You can then follow, up to 4 different modeling resources, over multiple days projecting the possible weather to affect your safe sailing experience.
This is what helps us cruising sailors adapt our sailing plans to the safety of our boat and crew.
…. Next up Micro weather considerations.
