Another El Nino winter-passage loss to Hawaii.....

[henkmeuzelaar]

Just a few years ago pretty much the same thing happened, in spite of my explicit warning to the (inexperienced) skipper of another large Hunter not to try a late winter/early spring passage to Hawaii. Especially not during an El Nino year, because of the increased penetration of lows/gales to lower latitudes.AFAIK, this skipper did not even seek planning/routing advice on any of the major sailing boards.Of course, it will all get blamed on that poor boat again....... Discouraging!!!Flying Dutchman

 

[Franklin]

April

Early April is when I think the best time to head to Hawaii.

 

[Franklin]

12-14 foot swells

Shouldn't the rudder have been able to handle 14' waves? Disappointing. I have to admit, it does sound like a weak rudder to me.

 

[Bryce Custer]

Would you leave sail up?

Picture looks odd to me. Would you abandon the boat with the sail out? Just a little suspicious of pictures on the web. It also appears that the back of the picture was modified to remove name or hailing port. Bryce

 

[BobW]

It's not the seas, it's what they were doing.....

perhaps. If you steer the boat wrong in heavy seas like that, with a big spade rudder, you could put excessive pressure on the rudder and break it. No way to tell if that happened.If they were in a gale, why didn't they deploy a drogue or sea anchor and sit it out? Maybe they didn't have either?Even more so, even if they were sailing through the storm, wouldn't a sea anchor have helped when the rudder broke? They wouldn't have had steering, but they were 250 miles from shore, and most boats sit comfortably to a sea anchor in all but survival storms (15 or even 25 foot waves usually don't qualify).Even if they DID have to abandon ship, wouldn't leaving a sea anchor or drogue deployed have helped limit the boat's movement, perhaps keeping it off the rocks? And if they left an EPIRB active on the boat, would the CG have helped them track it after it was abandoned?I'm no expert, but, IMNSHO, any boat can lose a rudder for any number of reasons, including a design or manufacturing fault. Preparations for off-shore voyaging require a workable backup plan for steering loss, and this boat didn't have that, so it was lost.I wonder how severely the brand-new boat was worked/stressed in sea trials before setting off on the voyage - if at all?Lastly, if you abandon your boat at sea, isn't it legally 'free game'? Doesn't anyone who boards it have salvage rights?One more parting shot: Since WHEN is a Hunter an 'expensive boat'? An Oyster is an expensive boat. A Swan is an expensive boat. A Hylas is an expensive boat. Cheers,Bobs/v X SAIL R 8

 

[Paul Z]

Methinks Bryce has a point

This quote from the news story:"Here’s the frustrating part. It was only beached for a day, but when we got to it, we found that someone had stolen everything off the boat. “I have a feeling it actually happened before it grounded. The knives and forks, plates and bowls, a sofa, they cut the lines for the sails, and of course all the electronics are gone. "The picture does not match the description

 

[Franklin]

gale

From what I read, it sounds like the gale was just starting. 14' swells aren't much for the Pacific Ocean. If a 45' boat can't take 14' swells on the beam, then it is poorly made. I am very disappointed in Hunter...me being a Hunter fan.Yes, they should have had something to anchor too...either a sea anchor or a Jordan serious drogue. They should have had a backup steering plan. Lots of things can break the rudder off. They may have had a lot to learn...we don't know that...it was a boat delivery. Captains don't get to pick the equipment the owner buys. Captains can bring their own equipment but he may not have it or have the money.But that's not my worries. I know better. But what does worry me is the quality Hunter is now making. If they said something pumped the boat that would be different. If they said it was 30' breaking waves, that would be different. But 14' swells...that's almost normal pacific seas.

 

[Liam]

14 foot swells are ...

very dangerous if they are close together and very relaxing if they are far apart.A 14 foot sea with a 10 second interval is basically like hell.An 8 foot sea at 6 seconds is not a lot better.These conditions will and do break things.

 

[Franklin]

please

I've been in 8', 6 second seas and it's not that bad and if the waves are close, they aren't swells, that's steep chop. Swells are waves generated a long ways away.

 

[Liam]

8 foot chop

You are probably right. I have never been in 8 foot "chop".That is chop that is as high as the ceiling in your house separated by a trough the lenght of your couch.I don't think that I would want to, but if you say there is nothing to it...

 

[Nice N Easy]

One must wonder

If I read this right, they were using an anchor CHAIN for the tow. So they loose the rudder, get a navy tug, and then use the anchor chain to tow it. There is absolutely no give in a chain, no way to absorb the shock loads associated with towing in heavy seas. That was mistake number two. My feeling is that mistake number one was they got caught stern to a big wave, with the rudder turned to the stop in an attempt to turn the boat. Just imagine, the stern comes out of the water, rudder turned to the stop, and a big breaking wave smacks the rudder. Rudder gone. End of story. That isn't a design flaw in the boat. Lots of us have been in seas bigger than that and survived with no damage. Not being there,it is hard to pass blame, but it appears to me that the crew on this boat had less than the necessary experience to deal with the conditions.

 

[Franklin]

"trough the lenght of your couch."

What the hell are you talking about? You said 6 seconds. 6 seconds is a lot more then 10' between wave tops.

 

[BobW]

In general terms....

seas are considered dangerous if the height in feet is greater than the period in seconds. Not a fixed rule, of course.I got the impression from the story that the Navy tug passed a tow rope - they wouldn't use a chain, for sure - and that the Hunter crew attached it to their anchor chain. Perhaps the Hunter only had an all-chain anchor rode? Or perhaps the Hunter crew felt the chain would be stronger than rope? I wonder why they didn't just attach the tow rope to the boat? Maybe they thought the windlass would hold better?Also, I'm with the people wondering about the veracity of the picture. Looks to me like the radome is still on the stern arch... wouldn't enterprising salvagers take that?Cheers,Bobs/v X SAIL R 8

 

[henkmeuzelaar]

Worst of all worlds: big waves + light winds!

The weather map shown by "Barometer" is very interesting, since it shows a substantial Pacific High protecting the area where the vessel ran into problems (~ 250 NM NE of the Big Island) from the monster Low (968 mbar!) in the Gulf of Alaska, at least with respect to the winds. Meanwhile, the waves generated by the low were apparently simply rolling on below the High and hitting the vessel on the starboard quarter. In short, they might actually have been better off if the 1034 mbar High would not have canceled out most of the Low's winds! So, now you have a vessel on a broad run in relatively weak winds while being badgered by BIG swells. This is one of the worst scenarios to be in. Without sufficient stabilizing effect of the sails, as well as adequate flow over the rudder to give it much power they must basically have been WALLOWING there until they were physically and mentally exhausted. Nice N Easy's scenario sounds indeed probable to me, considering the point of sail and marginal rudder power. Presumably, they weren't carrying enough fuel to keep motorsailing for a couple of days, just to give themselves a bit more control. On our Hawaii passages we carried an additional 50 gallon (on top of our Legend 43's standard 50 gallon tank) in deck tanks. This gave us approx. 6 days worth of fuel.IMHO BobW brings up a very valid point, though: "If you steer the boat wrong in heavy seas like that, with a big spade rudder, you could put excessive pressure on the rudder and break it." Many times, in heavy quartering or beam seas I felt Rivendel II's rudder being hit hard enough to decide that we would be safer aligning ourselves a bit better with the waves; whether by heading up or falling off. You may not see this written in the sailing books but to me it is hardly rocket science to realize that one can only put so much stress on a big blade rudder, while expecting it to outlast the several million wave cycles we have put on Rivendel II so far.Incidentally, since we installed our Autohelm windvane (with its big accessory rudder) about a dozen years ago we have had much less cause to worry, both with regard to fatiguing the main rudder shaft and to the potentially severe consequences of accidental rudder loss.Flying Dutchman

 

[BobW]

The owner salvaged 90 gallons of fuel...

after the boat went on the rocks, and got an ataboy from the CG for doing it.That should have been enough fuel to help, if they were wallowing. Obviously they didn't expect to lose the rudder - if they were worried about it, they probably would have done something to mitigate the risks.Once they DID lose the rudder, they don't seem to have been well prepared to deal with the emergency. Heck, even without a parachute anchor, they could have tied the 3 corners of a jib together and run it off the bow on an anchor rode (but not the chain, of course) and at least kept one end or the other into the seas. Not a great solution, but something.Cheers,Bobs/v X SAIL R 8

 

[Franklin]

light winds <> breaking waves

.

 

[henkmeuzelaar]

Well, so much for my brilliant scenario ...

Besides the inconsistencies in fuel reserves and Franklin's "breaking waves" (where did you read THAT?) I also decided to estimate the wind strengths a bit closer using ("Barometer") Rich Kelley's program and found out that the winds were indeed not light at all but more likely in the 20-30 knot range.This leaves excessive rudder loads because of point of sail and orientation of the vessel vs. the swells as the primary suspect, in my mind.I remember our first crossing of the rough Alenuihaha channel between the big island and Maui in ~35-40 knot winds with 2 lightweight female crew members who could not hold the wheel down against the strongly heeling wind and cross swells and were time and again literally lifted off their feet.... All this largely due to our being overcanvassed (on 2nd rather than 3rd reef).When I later tried to estimate the forces put on Rivendel's rudder it was quite sobering to realize that a 100 lb crew putting all of her weight on a 3-ft diameter wheel, which is then further amplified several times by the quadrant arrangement, can put more than 500 ft.lb of torque on the rudder! Just imagine what a 200 lb, well-trained deck gorilla can do! If I remember well, a 50 hp marine diesel engine typically produces no more than 100 ft.lb...At that point I started realizing that fighting wave action with bare handpower, let alone hydraulic autopilot rampower, might be quite capable of damaging even a well-built spade rudder. So I decided to start treating Rivendel II's rudder with a bit more gentleness than I had just shown her in the Alenuihaha channel.Have fun,Flying Dutchman

 

[Clyde]

Composite rudder post?

The news didn't say what year the Hunter 45 was. A couple of years ago a lot of the Hunter 45's were losing their rudders. Hunter concluded that the composite rudder post was the problem. They concluded that the composite rudder post could have damages not readily visible to the owner. They offered Hunter owners with the composite rudder post a stainless steel rudder post at a significantly reduced cost. The owner was responsible for having the stainless steel rudder post installed.The sailboat was about 250 miles northeast of the Big Island. I guess the delivery crew didn't have a marine SSB to get weatherfax since they called the USCG using a satellite phone instead of using the marine SSB.In rough seas when being towed you should rig a bridle to distribute the loads and minimize yawing from tearing your bow as the towline pulls the bow. I'm surprise that the Navy tugboat didn't radio the delivery crew to rig a bridle and not use the anchor chain and use a braided line instead. The anchor chain without a bridle must have acted like a monster size chain saw cutting into the fiberglass whenever the boat yawed. The delivery crew could have dragged a warp or drogue to steer by if they couldn't jury-rig a rudder. You would think that an experienced delivery crew would know this.Fair Winds,ClydeHunter Rudder Post failure problemhttp://archives.sailboatowners.com/pviewarch.htm?fno=443&sku=2006291084929.68&id=428219&ptl=#2006291181338.13PART 2 - Tow, Tow Tow your Boathttp://www.boatingsafety.com/tow2.htm

 

[henkmeuzelaar]

Barometer, can you teach us a bit more?

In your isobar plot (reply #5) what do the red dotted lines represent? Some kind of 500 mbar plot?In your wave plots (reply #19) in what way are the bold blue arrows different from the red ones?Finally, please provide the website urls where one can find these historical data. I usually use the FNMOC site for pressure/wind/wave/temp forecasts but don't recall seeing historical data beyond a few days back; at least not for the general public.Flying Dutchman

 

[BobW]

Does the sea state analysis....

show combined seas? (or is that the difference between the red and blue arrows?)Also, why are some numbers in boxes and others not? (guess: the ones in boxes are observations, the others interpolations)If the crew received the isobar chart in post #5 (assuming it hadn't changed significantly for a day or two), should they have been concerned? It looks to me like they're clear on the far side of the North Pacific high (1034) from the Gulf of Alaska low (988) and the worse one in the Bering Sea (968).250 nm north of Maui would put them at about 25N, 155W, right on the 5 meter yellow line on the sea-state analysis. 15 foot swells coming from 2000 miles away without any appreciable wind-waves is what I'm guessing from these 2 charts. Is there anything in the data to suggest they should have taken a more southerly track? That would have kept them further away from the NP high, and they would have made the suggested landfall at Hilo, then sailed up to Honolulu in the lee of the islands.I guess I better put a meteorology course on my to-do list. Good thing it's still a 5.5 year plan!Cheers,Bobs/v X SAIL R 8