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  • Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

All in favor say... HIGH

Feb 14, 2014
4,216
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
August brings in the Peak Tropical Storm season, a few friends are wondering why there few Atlantic storms.

By NOAA and the NHC..
https://forums.sailboatowners.com/index.php?threads/atlantic-hurricane-forecast-2019.197170/

The answer appears to be the constant streaming of HIGH pressure fronts that are protecting us and disrupting storm formation.

This time of year, sometimes call Canadian HIGHs

HIGHs bring clearing weather, but also brings the Heat waves too.

The African Coast "spin offs" appear to be much further south than normal. This a good thing, since the winds are disrupted by South America which causes an opposing Clockwise wind spin.

Jim...
 
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Feb 14, 2014
4,216
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
They attribute the increase to the end of El Nino
El Niño barely started and then quit. It was only in region 4 [West] near the area that has the storms now.
____
NHC had hoped "El Niñito" [:rolleyes:] would quell the Late 2019 season, but they DID predict an active Pacific, which is true so far.


_____
No doubt the Pacific Ocean controls our USA weather.
Guess what?

The Pacific is cooler than normal.:)
Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
4,216
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
El Niño barely started and then quit.
El Niño is defined by sustained Sea Surface Temperatures[SST] above 0.2 C° anomaly.
nino34.png

Thus Pacific Region 3/4 cooled below the threshold on end of June.
_____
Also note a similar type index for the East Atlantic birth place.
eatlssta.png

If the newest NOAA probability forecast of increase is based on El Niño gone, then the Intensity for the Atlantic should be down, as the Atlantic is cooler too.

The Caribbean is much more a spot of concern.
Jim...

PS: The series of HIGHs seem to be following the lower Temperatures of the Japanese current.
 
Feb 14, 2014
4,216
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
The series of HIGHs seem to be following the lower Temperatures of the Japanese current.
We have also seen and record breaking velocity, Jet Stream over the Pacific Northwest.
That must also contribute to the HIGHs.
Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
4,216
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
NOAA is watching INVEST 97L , located a couple of hundred miles south of
Nantucket, Massachusetts.

But it will be quickly "Crushed" by the pulsing HIGHs.

The Tropical Atlantic, for the Next 10 days, remains calm and is cooling compared to last weeks Averages.

Good news...
Jim...
 
Oct 22, 2014
10,870
CAL 35 Cruiser Portland OR, moored EVERETT WA
I like this cooling trend. Feels good. A moderate summer.