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All in favor say... HIGH

Feb 14, 2014
3,846
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
August brings in the Peak Tropical Storm season, a few friends are wondering why there few Atlantic storms.

By NOAA and the NHC..
https://forums.sailboatowners.com/index.php?threads/atlantic-hurricane-forecast-2019.197170/

The answer appears to be the constant streaming of HIGH pressure fronts that are protecting us and disrupting storm formation.

This time of year, sometimes call Canadian HIGHs

HIGHs bring clearing weather, but also brings the Heat waves too.

The African Coast "spin offs" appear to be much further south than normal. This a good thing, since the winds are disrupted by South America which causes an opposing Clockwise wind spin.

Jim...
 
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Feb 14, 2014
3,846
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
They attribute the increase to the end of El Nino
El Niño barely started and then quit. It was only in region 4 [West] near the area that has the storms now.
____
NHC had hoped "El Niñito" [:rolleyes:] would quell the Late 2019 season, but they DID predict an active Pacific, which is true so far.


_____
No doubt the Pacific Ocean controls our USA weather.
Guess what?

The Pacific is cooler than normal.:)
Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
3,846
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
El Niño barely started and then quit.
El Niño is defined by sustained Sea Surface Temperatures[SST] above 0.2 C° anomaly.
nino34.png

Thus Pacific Region 3/4 cooled below the threshold on end of June.
_____
Also note a similar type index for the East Atlantic birth place.
eatlssta.png

If the newest NOAA probability forecast of increase is based on El Niño gone, then the Intensity for the Atlantic should be down, as the Atlantic is cooler too.

The Caribbean is much more a spot of concern.
Jim...

PS: The series of HIGHs seem to be following the lower Temperatures of the Japanese current.
 
Feb 14, 2014
3,846
Hunter 430 Saba Waveland, MS
The series of HIGHs seem to be following the lower Temperatures of the Japanese current.
We have also seen and record breaking velocity, Jet Stream over the Pacific Northwest.
That must also contribute to the HIGHs.
Jim...