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Discussion in 'Weather and Forecasting' started by WayneH, May 13, 2019. Add this thread to a FAQ

  1. WayneH


    Joined Jan 22, 2008
    668 posts, 132 likes
    Tartan 37
    US Pensacola Shipyard, FL
    I ran across an interesting website while doing "research".
    flhurricane.com with a tag line of "Hurricanes without the hype"
    One of their forums had "Hurrisheet - Intensity and Surge Estimations from Pressure
    The Spreadsheet is at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...TO8xsW9PS9Zk706BWO4_So/edit?hl=en&hl=en#gid=0

    Jim, you are our resident storm guru. What do you think about this spreadsheet? The author states several times that this is not a proven or peer reviewed work but it gives good estimations.

    JamesG161 likes this.
  2. Benny17441


    Joined May 24, 2004
    5,749 posts, 417 likes
    CC 30
    US South Florida
    Our best and brightest meteorologist currently wrestle with the issue of storms intensity and are unable to provide reliable forecasts and now we get a spreadsheet that will do it for us? Really? I think of good estimates as something that might provide "good enough" results but I don't think Meteorology has advanced that far yet. Ironically what I have found best is local knowledge based in history and observations of the storms that prevail in your particular area.

    Last edited: May 13, 2019
  3. JamesG161


    Joined Feb 14, 2014
    3,604 posts, 1,323 likes
    Hunter 430
    US Waveland, MS
    I try to get out in front of the news cycle by using all the info available
    Trust me, so does most of the cities along a potential coastal strike, but they don't tell the News either.
    The challenge for us boaters and landlubbers is preparing ahead of a strike.
    NOAA has an experimental Storm surge, shoreline Wave action and strike model now.:clap:

    I did take a quick look at your links, but the Saffir-Simpson scale[SS] is used to kick in Federal Programs for relief and follows behind the real storm effects.
    Generally speaking ,the first link, is a good estimator of maximum winds, but not from the SS scale, but the true driver of near eye walls, is the mBar difference.;)

    The spreadsheet does give you the science, but it is difficult to get the real time data as a storm moves.
    The spread sheet will give you a good idea of what is happening in open waters and potential then.
    Today NOAA uses satellites passing over a storm, to estimate those pressures, until the real data is obtained by the Hurricane Hunters.:):):) [and ocean buoys]
    Hurricane Gordon, 2018, was supposed to hit LA head-on, but all of the States LA, MS, and AL declared a state of emergency.
    As Gordon neared shoreline, there was a mandatory evacuation of marinas, MS.
    The Hurricane Hunters info, showed it only strength on NE quadrant and had changed courses toward MS-AL border.
    In PM's, most of the MS and LA , SBO guys did prep the boats for the lower winds expected. [we got a maximum of 45 knots]
    Why? It was the Hurricane Hunter's real time data.
    BTW the NOAA Surge experimental model for my area predicted 4 feet storm surge, we got maybe 2.5 tops.
    I did prepare for 4 feet and had ready lines for 6 feet.
    It never hurts to try that spreadsheet on the next storm, hopefully in 2028.:)
    I do use a personal spreadsheet to calculate ETA's using Lon/Lat, but a few new weather sites offer that now also.

    Keep on doing and researching. Sailing is all about the Weather.;)

    PS: Penascola FL got most wind from Gordon, not even predicated a day before.

    Last edited: May 13, 2019

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