Massive Solar Flare Misses Earth

[jfmid]

Here is a link to an article that gave me pause the part that caught my attention is about the GPS threat.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/zd/20110608...DeW5fdG9wX3N0b3JpZXMEc2xrA21hc3NpdmVzb2xhcg--
If a corona ejection is powerful enough, and the earth is in its path, look out. Satellites are the most threatened, for obvious reasons, and a serious flare could damage or even destroy them, Hesse says. For regular people, that could mean no GPS, no satellite TV or radio, and disrupted communications for anything that relies on satellites as part of its network. The consequences to businesses can be even more severe, as satellites and GPS are intertwined with many other industries. For example, companies use GPS to time-stamp financial transactions.
"Satellites can get irradiated," Hesse explains. "Radiation levels in the magnetosphere can increase substantially, and that can be harmful to satellites. GPS can be substantially affected. Devices will lose lock."


This made me sit up and take notice. Particularly the part about the possibility of the GPS being knocked out over the next few years. It's really time to refresh my navigation skills and review procedures for keeping track of my position manually. As a newbie it was entirely too easy to slide right into using the GPS for everything. I'm going to focus this summer on marking position each half hour and plotting course and location. Even if there is no loss of GPS the ability and confidence will be worth the time and effort. Something to chew on.

 

[JVB]

It's unfortunate that Loran C was decommissioned. That was the preferred backup for navigation. But it was too expensive given all the other ways the government finds to squander money.

 

[Stephen Trapani]

Realistically, what are the chances GPS gets knocked out more than momentarily?

 

[RichH]

Realistically, what are the chances GPS gets knocked out more than momentarily?

If any of the high energy particles are stronger than the 'hardened' ICs and other semiconductor devices onboard these satellites, and if the IC etc. micro circuitry is 'altered' by the impact, then a high chance of total shutdown, especially if affecting mission critical stuff.

 

[dscribner]

Does anybody when a satellite went astray and most of the US pagers were out until they could move another satellite into place to cover . . . .

 

[Roger Long]

Don't worry. They designed the systems for the absolute worst solar flare "likely" to occur. Just like the Japanese designed those nukes for the absolute worst earthquake "likely" to occur. (As do our nuke engineers.)

We learn now that the power plants were probably doomed to meltdown from the earthquake alone before the water even got there.

Give an engineer a cost - risk- benefit matrix and he can come up with just about anything that will make the financial guys happy. I'm sure GPS is no different.

 

[robertsapp]

Seriously? I'd be much more worried about the disruption in electonic funds transactions. Have you noticed how many one meter dishes sit on business rooftops? A solar flare strong enough to cook satellites will destroy our worldwide electronic funds transaction system. How long will it take to recreate the old system where everyone receives a paper paycheck that then has to be taken to the bank to be cashed, so that everything can be purchased with cash? Can that sort of 1960's system even still work in a country with over 300 million people? Of course, a somewhat stronger flare could actually destroy some if not all of our power distribution system. Regardless, in the weeks, months, years it takes to all be sorted out (because it would take a LONG time to completely rebuild the network) you can pretty much count on social anarchy. We're talking about stocking up the storeroom with bullets, toilet paper, whiskey, and as much food as you can lay your hands on here; not having GPS on your sailboat will be the very least of your problems. Look up "Carrington Event" and think about it some. But hey, just because it's happened a lot in the past doesn't mean it could happen again someday, right?

 

[jfmid]

Don't worry. They designed the systems for the absolute worst solar flare "likely" to occur. Just like the Japanese designed those nukes for the absolute worst earthquake "likely" to occur. (As do our nuke engineers.

We learn now that the power plants were probably doomed to meltdown from the earthquake alone before the water even got there.

Give an engineer a cost - risk- benefit matrix and he can come up with just about anything that will make the financial guys happy. I'm sure GPS is no different.

Roger I love your insight and logic. As we all know this system was built for the US military. Sometimes military systems aren't quite as robust and flawless as one might hope despite having lots of money to throw at things. Lets hope that the system will survive minor storms short of a "Carrington Event" and that we wont see a big one for another 400 years. Still a great reason to go out on the water and get the charts and compass out and practice getting a fix. Still better take a class locally on coastal navigation or such. Any excuse to get out on the water is a good one. "Hey honey, I have to practice my nav. skills cause of the solar flares". Works for me.

 

[Roger Long]

I'd be much more worried about the disruption in electonic funds transactions.

As well you should. Some incredibly huge portion of our money only exists because it is dynamically in electronic transit. Money is now more a form of information than it is physical wealth. Think of the memory in your computer, it only stores information as long as the power is on. Turn off the power and that information doesn't exist until reloaded from hard disk or other sources. What we've let happen to the financial system is for a proportion of the money which we couldn't survive the loss of to exist only in that same form. If something were to turn of the system, like a big solar flare, it doesn't exist on any back up disks anywhere.

Has anyone noticed how the banking system has managed to lose the "ownership" of a huge proportion of the foreclosed houses? They stopped shipping physical paper around and put mortgages into on-line electronic form. When the system overloaded, a lot of them simply disappeared.

 

[Peggie Hall HeadMistress]

The unspoken question...

"It's unfortunate Loran C was decommissioned...."

"Realistically, what are the chances GPS gets knocked out more than momentarily?

"You mean I really MIGHT have to actually learn some real navigation skills????"

 

[jimmcgee]

...We're talking about stocking up the storeroom with bullets, toilet paper, whiskey, and as much food as you can lay your hands on here...

Now there's a man who has given some thought to his priorities

 

[robertsapp]

I actually forgot to include cigarettes on the list. I don't smoke, but I've always felt that in a post-apocalyptic world, whiskey, toilet paper, cigarettes and bullets would be the absolutely best thing to have stockpiled because they are completely non-perishable and could probably be traded for anything else that you could possibly need.

 

[jimmcgee]

And rum, can't forget the rum

Seriously though, the chances of the world going Mad Max on us are small enough that I'm not giving it a whole lot of thought...