Any tips on how to forecast, on a local basis if a gusty coastal wind is building, leveling off at a new higher speed or actually subsiding?
Read the wind
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For short term (less than 1 - 2 hours) persistence is the best forecast.
Otherwise, if the surface pressure is changing rapidly and is forecast to continue to do so, then forecast higher than normal winds. (You'll need a barometer for this, a microbarograph is better.)
For another technique you'll need the latest weather model forecasts. Plot your position on them. If the pressure gradient (distance between the isobars) is forecast to decrease, so will the wind. The converse is true.
For weather model forecasts go to
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ then follow the guidance in the attached picture to pick the latest model run.
Rich
Ross is also right
For local effects perhaps the best rule of thumb is afternoons are when, in the absence of other forcing, the wind over the water is the strongest.
My earlier reply is good for forecasting winds driven by large scale weather systems.
For local effects perhaps the best rule of thumb is afternoons are when, in the absence of other forcing, the wind over the water is the strongest.
To predict gusty/unstable wind conditions look at the developing dewpoint and temperature profile over 'adjacent' areas and compare with your area. Oncoming weather which has higher temp and higher 'humidity'/dewpoint will generally bring gusty/unstable winds; approaching lower temp & lower dewpoint/humidity will usually bring more 'straight-line' winds with less instability - but with sometimes higher wind flow.
Also too, the local water temp (and how 'big' the local water) .... if the water/land is cooler than the oncoming weather, then you can tend to expect less instability AT the water, If the oncoming air temp is cooler than the water, then expect 'unstable' winds.
Gusts in summertime typically go: veer/back/veer/normal ... go left, then right, then left, then back to normal .... in winter this is reversed - back/veer/back/normal mostly dependent on the local water temperature.
All this is influenced ALSO by 'how close' the approaching 'isobars' (gradient of barometric pressure) on a weather map are - for both straight line winds and also unstable winds. Ditto the weather chart predictions at 500 mB (prediction of location of 'jet steams').
A good text for all this is "Mariners Weather Handbook" - Dashews ( - expensive!). http://www.amazon.com/Mariners-Weather-Handbook-Steve-Dashew/dp/0965802825 There are other such textbooks specific to sailboat racing ... and equally expensive.
Also too, the local water temp (and how 'big' the local water) .... if the water/land is cooler than the oncoming weather, then you can tend to expect less instability AT the water, If the oncoming air temp is cooler than the water, then expect 'unstable' winds.
Gusts in summertime typically go: veer/back/veer/normal ... go left, then right, then left, then back to normal .... in winter this is reversed - back/veer/back/normal mostly dependent on the local water temperature.
All this is influenced ALSO by 'how close' the approaching 'isobars' (gradient of barometric pressure) on a weather map are - for both straight line winds and also unstable winds. Ditto the weather chart predictions at 500 mB (prediction of location of 'jet steams').
A good text for all this is "Mariners Weather Handbook" - Dashews ( - expensive!). http://www.amazon.com/Mariners-Weather-Handbook-Steve-Dashew/dp/0965802825 There are other such textbooks specific to sailboat racing ... and equally expensive.
Being an avid windsurfer for over 30years now on the Chessy, I'm always looking for an opportunity to sail, even in colder weather. That being said, CBOFS http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ofs/cbofs/wind_forecast.shtml
has been very accurate in their forecast in the past. However just receintly the forecast display has changed (they're not showing the wind arrows over land anymore, not sure why?), and I'm wondering if their model has as well, because the past (4) times I have sailed their forecast was low for wind speeds. Before they were almost spot on every time.
Sailing in the late fall with colder water, southerly's generally don't reach the water because of decoupling due to a cold marine layer sitting and not mixing with the warmer air.
W/NW with colder air will jump right down on ya and be quite gusty especially when clouds are in the mix as they usually are. Last week on the Back River it would gust to 35 and then the lulls would be 0, difficult to sail in.
The Northerly's can be good cold dense consistent air to sail in this time of year when full sunshine is present.
Easterly's generally mean rain which will vary the wind, unless it is a fetch (strong high in New England) than out on the coast you will get a very consistent flow.
With any forecast timing is everything.
has been very accurate in their forecast in the past. However just receintly the forecast display has changed (they're not showing the wind arrows over land anymore, not sure why?), and I'm wondering if their model has as well, because the past (4) times I have sailed their forecast was low for wind speeds. Before they were almost spot on every time.
Sailing in the late fall with colder water, southerly's generally don't reach the water because of decoupling due to a cold marine layer sitting and not mixing with the warmer air.
W/NW with colder air will jump right down on ya and be quite gusty especially when clouds are in the mix as they usually are. Last week on the Back River it would gust to 35 and then the lulls would be 0, difficult to sail in.
The Northerly's can be good cold dense consistent air to sail in this time of year when full sunshine is present.
Easterly's generally mean rain which will vary the wind, unless it is a fetch (strong high in New England) than out on the coast you will get a very consistent flow.
With any forecast timing is everything.
I've found this site helpful for predicting local wind conditions...... http://www.sailflow.com/windandwhere.iws?regionID=92®ionProductID=29&timeoffset=0
learn what clouds are frontal change clouds... these can make or break you rsailing experience depending on you rlpocale-- gulf-- wow--hold on and sail fast--lol within 3-6 hours of front change clouds, we had some kinda WEATHER!!!!!!!
kali--means not much EXCEPT in winter when the seas are huge and winds are huge and a storm is gonna get ye-- here is about 3 hours--sometimes immediate-as noaa uses a buoy system and reads the buoys, they are able to miss your local weather patterns--we found that to be true in florida area of gulf, in particular.
kali--means not much EXCEPT in winter when the seas are huge and winds are huge and a storm is gonna get ye-- here is about 3 hours--sometimes immediate-as noaa uses a buoy system and reads the buoys, they are able to miss your local weather patterns--we found that to be true in florida area of gulf, in particular.
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