Here is my magical fairy dust theory - cant give a reference..
If you look at the references on the typical cloud charging, the upper levels of the cloud are positive and lower levels are negative.
The cloud lower level negative charge induces a positive charge at the water surface. Some more fun reading on how this works here
http://www.lightningsafety.com/nlsi_lhm/Radials.pdf
The water surface gets charged positively by electrons on surface atoms getting driven down into the bulk of the water.
At some point, the electric field gets large enough that a negative streamer heads down from the cloud towards the water.
This negitive downwards streamer has its most intense electric field at its propagating end. As the streamer gets closer to the water surface, the electric field builds - and further charges the water surface. Water itself is very difficult to ionize (both dielectric constant and density in water are MUCH higher than air making water significantly harder to ionize). However, the air just above the water now sees a very intense electric field and this can ionize creating a conductive path for an upwards "positive" streamer to flow. If your mast is in the vaciniity of where this ionization occurs, your mast will get used as the lowest impedance path to follow. The positive streamer then heads up (using your mast) to meet the downwards negitive streamer from the cloud and then bang.. Once again, the "positive" upwards streamer is actually electrons moving in the opposite direction. Note that this whole mechanism had nothing to do with the keel being grouded or not (ie, I dont think grounding has any effect on your chances of getting struck).
One interesting thing from the radials paper is that the surface charging time is inversely proportional to the number of charge carriers disolved in water. Salt water has about 1000 times the number of carriers so charges about 1000 times faster than fresh water. Salt water surface charging takes nano seconds, fresh water is in the 10's of micro seconds. The much longer surface charging time of fresh water is (I beleive, could be wrong) why the surface radial patters are so much longer for fresh water compared to salt water.