Thanks to all and a lot of good thoughts and in response
No Im not looking for a computer to drive the boat, but I would be keen for it to do what I do manually, which I would check of course.
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Yes I agree weather prediction further out becomes less accurate, but its what we have to work with. I just want to make the most of it.
There are forecast models beyond 10 days . Viewfax (16 days) which I believe pulls its models from Sailmail, which I think comes from NOAA will produce grib files for 16 days. Of course as suggested the accuracies of such are getting slimmer each day. But be that as it may, it’s a better guess than say 90% of us or me for sure. The Pilot charts won't help if there is a depression, or cyclone, they do nothing for a trend or low developing. Good for ball parking expectations. For cyclones/typhons Ozy wont raise any flags until its within 5 days. This is criminal in my personal view and sometimes it even comes down to 3 days. There happy to say in a normal forecast wind strength can be up to 40% stronger, but they not happy to say there is a 40% chance of a cyclone coming 6 plus days out. As a lay person I can see this coming at least a week out
These longer day forecasts are useful for altering your course to avoid major storms, as best one can given the limitations of your particular boat speed. Something to think about. How far can you actually travel in, say, 5 days to change where you are going to avoid a storm? Now if you are in a Pogo, you will have a much larger range compared to my boat that only runs 6 to 7 knots.
I recall coming out of the Azores and we were looking to avoid a hurricane that was predicted to come crashing down on us from the north in about 3 to 5 days (uncertainties of the different weather prediction models). Our great circle route would have had us running right through the bottom of that storm – on the less desirable side...
I had one crew with me that was a competent sailor and we had a very good working relationship. All decisions we made were an agreement between the two of us (we had a third crew with us at the time but a novice so she simply would listen in on these conversations). As we were leaving Horta, I said I think we should head on a much more southernly route giving us as much time as possible to put distance between us and the storm. He countered saying maybe we should head closer to the great circle route and if the storm did start to get close, we could then drop south.
I asked him how far did he think we could get and that perhaps it's better to simply be where you want to be rather than hope to arrive to where you should be.... We went south and had a spectacularly beautiful trip. A day off the coast of Portugal and the three of us looked at each other and said, rather than going to land, perhaps we should just turn either North or South and keep sailing – this is just to lovely to have end....
Yes agreed weather models are of little help for 2 year trip. However I wouldn’t say no help. Jimmy Cornells world routes has some basic Tradewinds weather planning and there is a heap of info in Pilot guides etc but while I don’t want to get into “climate change” here in my view a number of the old traditions are dyeing, and the season expectations are moving. A lot of this information in 15-20 years old. Yep agreed you can't use computer models for a 2 year trip. But with historic grib and ocean data I can run this through my route plan in Raytech historically and see for example that for the last two years there is a good chance I could get jump on the season even in late March. OpenCPN has a climatology plug, sadly it stops 2010 due to lack of data sources, but even here you can see the shift in traditions. Its a pity is data source dried up
Yes indeed, not to get into “climate change”, but weather patterns are changing. The pilot charts are 15 to 20 years old but they are based on over a century of data collection. Of course the better information within those are in the regions with higher shipping so heading to regions outside of that has greater error. And that is not portrayed in the data presented – it's only implied. I've had the same concerns.
Unfortunately I don't know of a better data source. Getting this data from the past, say 5 years, and using it to essentially make more accurate pilot charts would be something very useful to the greater sailing community, I would think.... I wonder if something like that may be in the works inside the large institutions that house the data that make the current pilot charts. It would certainly be a useful data set for modern shipping.
My everyday forecast I get for 10 days typically one model unless I see anything suspicious or Im planning a passage, then multiple models out as far as they will go. The upside here is that while the forecast for day 5 and beyond might have the wind direction and or strength wrong, its not so often that it completely misses a big low or high development.
That is the main utility of these models. Avoidance of major storms.
Yea not my experience at models in Oceana being better in shore. In fact if you asked me, I would have said the reverse. When I have questioned the BOM ( Ozy weather forecasters), there standard answer is the forecast is being effected by the land. As far as Im aware there modeling which is run locally in Ozy doesn't take on much to do with land, other than perhaps the land mass. You can see this easily by examples of the lack of offshore winds at night as the land temperature drops the wind races off shore and is seldom shown on weather models
My statement comes from deep ocean – I'd agree with you when speaking to areas closer than about 200 nm from shore.
I found in the middle of the ocean, the weather models were at best approximate to representing general conditions. As in, no I'm not in gale force winds. But wind speed and direction had a notably larger deviation from what I was actually seeing compared to closer to shore.
Yea I’m not meaning to suggest long term weather forecasting isn’t rocket science, Im trying to say pulling all the data together with some user filters defiantly isn't rocket science and shouldn’t be that hard
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In regards to starlink and everyday Weather prediction. Yep for sure in my case it’s a good guide that I will use to drive my starting point. If Im in route for a few days, or even setting off and the weather model says anywhere less than about 12 to 15 I will run full sail at night (given I have radar to see squalls) If my weather says 20 knots is coming at 3:00am, then probably just before dinner or shortly after sun set I will reduce the sails to suit 30 knots. Based on the reef early moto.
To each their own. I run conservatively. I tend to reef before dark running into the night. Of course if weather forecast predicts a significant weather change, I will adjust.
Im surprised no one has really mentioned Predict Wind till now and so far the only one suggesting multiple departure times over a 10 day period using multiple models.
I think because Predict Wind is so well known and extensively used, no one thought to really mention it. Predict wind has all sorts of functionality used by cruisers such that it's almost a given it's a known entity in the cruising world. If you were not aware of Predict wind, you would be so far down on the learning curve that most of this conversation would be rather academic.
Yep Im not looking to ditch common sense, observations, or skippers' good skills , that we all should have as sailors. But I am looking for tools to do what we (or perhaps I do) manually and to do it better and more reliably, so I can spend more time enjoying the trip. Im not looking to push auto pilot and expect it all to happen.
Are you a solo sailor do you sail with crew? As a solo sailor you can set up and run any system you want, interface with it however you want. If you pick up crew, there may be the need to make sure crew agree with the complexity of the system you are looking to implement.
You mention “more reliably” and “spend more time enjoying the trip”. I question the greater reliability. I think it simply adds complexity but I doubt it adds reliability. “Enjoying the trip” - that depends upon what you enjoy doing during the trip. Technology, especially complex systems, tend to create tethers. If you enjoy those tethers, great. But you may find it becomes more of a burden.
Im looking for as many of these aspects as I can get.
- To run route planning on any weather forecast model available.
- For it to use current and wave information
- For it to use my boat information via Polar, sailing, motor sailing, or motoring
- For it to run over a 16 day window
- For it to run retrospectively if the user can provide the data
- For it to contain filters for say wind strength, precipitation, swell height, wind angle
- For it to provide comparisons based on different models
- For it to realize if I motor for two hours while the wind changes is far more efficient than sailing 20 miles south to then sail 20 miles North when I could have motored 10nm directly While the wind turns.
- To export or provide the proposed route in a form I can lay on my chart plotter
- To realize on day 1 when the wind angle is 30 degrees out compared to the forecasted planned route and make the route change with real wind angle data.
As I said none of that is rocket science and the data is available. Dare I stir the pot by suggesting it seems like in regards to the weather we are still back to the equivalent of using paper charts and a sextant for navigation
I strongly disagree with your analogy.
So who’s product comes closest ??
I'd suggest you look at the sailboat racing community. Ask high end racers what they use. I had a crew on board who was in that category and he had his computers with him sailing with me. A lot of your above list of desires I know he could do through his computer system, but I don't know what it was called. He did not have the historical weather data you are looking for.
Is this not all useful information??
That's rather an ask for opinions.
Points 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 9 already exist. You are not asking for something new.
Point 8 could be improved, but does currently exist.
Point 4 – I don't consider at all useful. The data is not sufficiently accurate to be useful that far out.
Point 10 I find amusing – It's actually asking now for the integration of on-board weather sensors as you may be sitting at day 1 and can see the change you mention, but the computer model is still saying the incorrect real world situation.
Point 5 is actually the only thing on the list I personally would find interesting – but I would want you to show me where that data is, because as you have written it, “if the user can provide the data” is useless.
dj
