Chesapeake Bay Area. Possibilities

[Davidasailor26]

Handy site with weather buoys from around the bay: Home | Chesapeake Bay Interpretive Buoy System

Many of the buoys are also repeated on the NOAA site and WindAlert.

Most of the buoys are reporting winds sustained in the mid 20’s with gusts into the 30’s this morning. Will be interesting to see how they progress during the day.

 

[DRhoads]

I did some looking around from Baltimore down to the Potomac. Looks like Point Lookout, (near Potomac), is going to have the strongest sustained winds but the largest gusts seem to be in the Balitmore area with one at 55kts this morning. Thomas Point, near Annapolis, sustained wind ~ 20kts gusts 30-35kts. Gooses Reef, ~50NM south of Annapolis about the same just a little higher. Cove Point, (Solomons area) mid 20's with 30kt gusts. Point Lookout, sustained winds high 20's + with high 30's gusts. And of course, Gail warning all around.

 

[jssailem]

The event is likely to subside by evening. What's been happening on the east shore of the Bay? There is a bit of fetch for the wind to kick up some waves and create a surge. Normally, the Bay sees minimal tidal change (about 12 inches). Docks are built close to the water level. With the winds are we seeing this causing issues?

 

[pgandw]

The shore side of the Outer Banks is forecast 1-2ft above ground level (minor flooding potential) due to strong south westerlies pushing Albemarle and Roanoke Sounds east. Pamilico Sound is forecast to have low water, but not enough for a low water level advisory.

Fred W

 

[kappykaplan]

Neither Solomons nor Cove Point Wx Buoys showed any significant wind gusts; however, Gooses Reef (slightly farther north) had those significant wind gusts!

 

[kappykaplan]

Gooses Reef is still seeing some pretty significant wind - not so for Solomons and Cove Point.

 

[jssailem]

40-46 knot gusts are significant

 

[kappykaplan]

40-46 knot gusts are significant

Yes, and there were gusts around 50kts near mid-day.

 

[kappykaplan]

Cove Point Wx Buoy recorded a gust of 46kts at 1154 and one of 39kts at 1206. Gooses Reef had a gust of 42.7kts at 1912.

 

[jssailem]

Good Morning, all. By now, the winds of December have moved to the Atlantic. It was not the worst storm, for sure, to make its presence known. I hope all are ready for improving weather and the fun-filled holidays.

Looking at the big picture, much of the weather patterns we experience are driven by the ENSO current conditions that occurred 8-12 months ago. Last January, NOAA predicted a disaster-filled hurricane season. The cause was the dramatic change in the ENSO current flow. The conditions for 2023 were identified as El Niño. The ENSO readings were beginning to fall rapidly. This created the expectation of a La Niña condition. The rapid change in the current was observed and expressed as "serious climate change," resulting in "Above Normal 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season" (NOAA predicts above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season)

The rush to make predictions before all the data is available has proven error-prone. The 2024 ENSO rate of change slowed. The predicted La Niña condition did not materialize. Instead, we have moved to a stage known as "Neutral."

What does all this mean... volatility in forecasts.
What would a La Niña winter look like in the Northern Hemisphere? This NOAA chart helps.

During La Niña, the Pacific jet stream often meanders high into the North Pacific. Southern and interior Alaska and the Pacific Northwest tend to be cooler and wetter than average, and the southern tier of U.S. states—from California to the Carolinas—tends to be warmer and drier than average. Farther north, the Ohio and Upper Mississippi River Valleys may be wetter than usual. Climate.gov image.​

La Niña conditions usually bring a warmer, drier winter to the Chesapeake Bay and the Atlantic Coast. This winter's weather patterns could be more pleasant than the winter of 2023.

Time will tell if the conditions develop. It is weather, and weather is fickle.