• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

TS Milton --> Hurricane Milton

BigEasy

BigEasy

.
Jun 21, 2004
2,658
Beneteau 343 Slidell, LA
JamesG161 said:
My office had 42 feet of Storm Surge in Katrina.
But point taken about Surge.
Click to expand
Amazing. Had friends who were building new home on Jordan River, around NW side of Bay St Louis; their home was elevated 22ft and yet had 3 ft of water inside the house. Fortunately, it hadn't been sheet rocked yet. Other friends had an elevated home one block off SW side of bay; their homesite looked like your office...nothing remained. Storm surge from a major hurricane is not to be taken lightly.
 
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JamesG161

JamesG161

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Feb 14, 2014
7,713
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
BigEasy said:
Had friends who were building new home on Jordan River
Click to expand
BigEasy said:
their home was elevated 22ft and yet had 3 ft of water inside the house.
Click to expand
The Jourdan River moved water inland faster, since no restrictions to flow. Thus 40+ feet on the Beach.

This Katrina picture was taken where my office is now , 1 hour After Katrina had passed.

hotel.jpg


Jim...
 
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kappykaplan

kappykaplan

.
May 1, 2011
4,727
Pearson 37 Lusby MD
Milton is definitely getting stronger . . .
032733_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Winds will be very high when the hurricane comes ashore.
032733.png

Stay safe, y'all.
 
Last edited:
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jssailem

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
22,217
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Today's Windy Report for Hurricane Milton.
Screenshot 2024-10-07 at 06.39.11.png


The storm is indicated to brush the North coast of the Yucatan peninsula tomorrow. This action is not expected to reduce the Hurricane's strength as it moves across the warm waters of the Gulf.

Winds aloft over the southern Gulf are very light. This will allow the storm to build vertically as it proceeds to the East and Northeast. The storm will push a strong surge front Eastward. This surge will strike the coast ahead of the storm front before the storm makes landfall. Please prepare now and follow your local officials ' guidance.
 
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B

Benny17441

.
May 24, 2004
7,141
CC 30 South Florida
That centerline on the cone of uncertainty is just a mathematically averaged location of all the weather models predicting the track. There is a bunch of them pointing North of the line and a good number of them pointing South. We still have to wait to see where they start aligning.
 
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jssailem

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
22,217
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Benny17441 said:
We still have to wait to see where they start aligning.
Click to expand
Absolutely true.
The Surge will stretch considerably north and south of where the hurricane lands. Listen to the emergency guidance. The surge will be significant.
 
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Tally Ho

Tally Ho

.
Jan 7, 2011
5,250
Oday 322 East Chicago, IN
Hurricane shutters are (hopefully) getting put on my place tomorrow….a friend in Cape Coral is under mandatory evacuation.

It does look like this could be a real monster.
 
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JamesG161

JamesG161

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Feb 14, 2014
7,713
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Evacuation of Tampa Bay area began yesterday

Screenshot 2024-10-08 at 9.04.58 AM.png


Pray for them !!!

DAMMIT Jim...
 
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kappykaplan

kappykaplan

.
May 1, 2011
4,727
Pearson 37 Lusby MD
Definitely a monster of a storm - latest graphics from NOAA below.
032332_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

The winds going across central Florida at landfall will be very, very bad. DAMMIT JIM
032332.png

Stay safe, y'all.
 
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jssailem

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
22,217
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
kappykaplan said:
The winds going across central Florida at landfall will be very, very bad. DAMMIT JIM
Click to expand
It would not be a good day to test your reefing techniques...

It is a Hunker down day
 
BigEasy

BigEasy

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Jun 21, 2004
2,658
Beneteau 343 Slidell, LA
There is going to be lots of boats lost in this storm & don’t be surprised if insurance rates increase as a result. BUT, that really isn’t important because, of the human suffering & loss of life that will occur. Read an article a few days ago, about increased death rate in a given community, following catastrophic events such as Milton. I believe that phenomenon is true based on observations during aftermath of Katrina.
 
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JamesG161

JamesG161

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Feb 14, 2014
7,713
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
BigEasy said:
Read an article a few days ago, about increased death rate in a given community, following catastrophic events
Click to expand
Did you know that the Katrina "shock" study showed people gained huge amounts of body weight up to 3 yrs after the Event?

I remember eating my first Hamburger from Sonic [first to open after Katrina].
We all thought it was the best burger ever and "tater tots" were perfection.

The Shock was mental and physical.
Jim...
 
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BigEasy

BigEasy

.
Jun 21, 2004
2,658
Beneteau 343 Slidell, LA
JamesG161 said:
Did you know that the Katrina "shock" study showed people gained huge amounts of body weight up to 3 yrs after the Event?
The Shock was mental and physical.
Jim...
Click to expand
Was unaware of the weight gain study.
Definitely lots of mental & physical shock!
 
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