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Sailing is all about the Weather.
Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.
Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.
Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.
TS Milton --> Hurricane Milton
- Thread starter Tally Ho
- Start date
What's that "M" about?
There was a rush on the grocery today in Jensen Beach. Some say it's the storm. Others say it's the port strike. Most stuff available but TP is short supply. Maybe the situation in Western NC has woken up a lot of people. We're seeing forecasts of 10: plus rain. 'Course our topography is so different. We don't have mountains for rain to run off. We just have "Glug, glug" in heavy rain. Height above sea level - about 10 feet. Amount of rain - 10 inches. 9' 2" to spare.
There was a rush on the grocery today in Jensen Beach. Some say it's the storm. Others say it's the port strike. Most stuff available but TP is short supply. Maybe the situation in Western NC has woken up a lot of people. We're seeing forecasts of 10: plus rain. 'Course our topography is so different. We don't have mountains for rain to run off. We just have "Glug, glug" in heavy rain. Height above sea level - about 10 feet. Amount of rain - 10 inches. 9' 2" to spare.
Almost all paper products were gone when I hit my grocery store Thu afternoon - because of the Longshoreman strike.
Believe the "M" is for when Milton elevates above a Cat 1 hurricane.
Believe the "M" is for when Milton elevates above a Cat 1 hurricane.
Dammit Jim, our generator has barely cooled off since the last one!! 
When I was in USNavy Navigational Training it was North of NAS Pensacola FL in....
MILTON Florida.
DAMMIT Jim....
MILTON Florida.
DAMMIT Jim....
I thought M meant Cat 3 or higher. Has the M been demoted to above cat 1?
The rain event in NC and surrounds should make the NHC rethink the hurricane rating system. While wind is very destructive there is also storm surge and just good ol' rain. There is also the size of the storm. Some Cat 5 storms can be relatively small while a cat 3 or even a TS can overwhelm an area with rain and maybe not that much wind. Or a relatively small storm with a very low central pressure can wipe a coastal area out with storm surge. And then there's Helena, which had high winds, storm surge and epic rain in the worst place. Is Helena worse than Superstorm Sandy or Katrina? It's hard to tell. Neither of the three were forecasted to create the damage they did. I think because in hurricane forecasts there's too much emphasis on wind speed. Indeed the categorization is based solely on windspeed.
The rain event in NC and surrounds should make the NHC rethink the hurricane rating system. While wind is very destructive there is also storm surge and just good ol' rain. There is also the size of the storm. Some Cat 5 storms can be relatively small while a cat 3 or even a TS can overwhelm an area with rain and maybe not that much wind. Or a relatively small storm with a very low central pressure can wipe a coastal area out with storm surge. And then there's Helena, which had high winds, storm surge and epic rain in the worst place. Is Helena worse than Superstorm Sandy or Katrina? It's hard to tell. Neither of the three were forecasted to create the damage they did. I think because in hurricane forecasts there's too much emphasis on wind speed. Indeed the categorization is based solely on windspeed.
No, The M is still for Major - Cat 3-5.
The 4PM CDT advisory increased the forecast strength and now projects winds of 100KTS / 115 MPH as it approaches land. CAT 3 / Major Hurricane strength starts at 96 kts / 111 MPH.
Storm will be cleared out well before 14th; however, depending on your destination & the storm's point of landfall, things may not be to your liking. If your destination takes a direct hit, you can count on widespread power outages, business closures, and a generally inhospitable environment, especially if impacted by storm surge.
Projected path takes Milton over the "loop current" in Gulf, that traverses Carribean waters; very warm water temps found in loop current. Storms that cross that patch of Gulf usually exhibit rapid intensification. Monitor & plan accordingly.
Last edited:
jssailem
SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
- Oct 22, 2014
- 22,005
Sorry Greg. With the two storm Kirk and Leslie off in the Atlantic, I shut down the computer and went outside to watch my grandson play soccer. You guys are tremendous. Yes Milton looks to be formidable. The shortages being seen in stores I would expect are do to factors other than Milton. At present Milton looks to cut a path across the middle of Florida. Batten down the hatches. It’s going to be a bumpy ride. Suspect the storm surge will be significant and will arrive before the storm reaches the coastline. The storm has a lot of fetch to develop as it crosses the Gulf. The storm will be moving across the central gyre of the Gulf. Observe able here in this image.
Just saw latest NHC advisory at 4:00 PM (Sunday). Projected to reach 145 mph on Tuesday PM & downgrade to cat 3 before landfall. BUT it will still be pushing strong cat 4 surge at landfall. Similar situation during Katrina resulted in 25+ feet surge on MS coast at eastern eyewall. Catastrophic results.
My office had 42 feet of Storm Surge in Katrina.
So much clean Water that was my office slab 1000 feet from the Waveland MS , Beach.
______
But point taken about Surge.
Listen Florida's Warning...
https://x.com/rawsalerts/status/1843020811235651751
DAMMIT Jim...