• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

PTC SIX --> TS Francine --> Hurricane Francine

JamesG161

JamesG161

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Feb 14, 2014
7,696
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
AL062024_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png


Screenshot 2024-09-08 at 9.15.29 PM.png


Getting Fuel to make it to Named Storm Francine





ohc_aQG3_latest_natl.gif



Dammit Jim...
 
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jssailem

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
21,886
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
This storm deserves your attention. Include it in your daily watch. At this time there are several conditions that suggest it will be a Tropical Storm when it comes ashore somewhere between Brownsville and New Orleans. Check in with your local authorities. Tropical Storms usually bring heavy rain.

Stay safe.
 
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JamesG161

JamesG161

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Feb 14, 2014
7,696
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
New advisory is out.

154133_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png


Both model are in agreement.

The intensity will grow to maybe Cat 2

Prepare now...

Dammit Jim....
 
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BigEasy

BigEasy

.
Jun 21, 2004
2,627
Beneteau 343 Slidell, LA
JamesG161 said:
The intensity will grow to maybe Cat 2
Prepare now..
Click to expand
Heading to marina now to add & adjust lines for tidal surge. Going to wait until Tuesday AM to determine if canvas & genoa need to come down. Here we go again....
 
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shemandr

shemandr

.
Jan 1, 2006
7,302
Slickcraft 26 Sailfish
Right up the ol' miss. A big enema. I can't remember another with that track. Usually they head more East. TWC is all twitter about this one. 'Course they haven't had enough to talk about this year. They could talk about the unusual pattern of tropical waves coming out of Africa. Or the dry air with Saharan dust. But that doesn't fit the narrative.
 
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BigEasy

BigEasy

.
Jun 21, 2004
2,627
Beneteau 343 Slidell, LA
shemandr said:
Right up the ol' miss. A big enema. I can't remember another with that track.
Click to expand
The only one that I am aware of that came close to tracking up the Mississippi was Hurricane Betsy in 1965. Made landfall around Grand Isle approximately 20 miles west of the river. Actually, there were several storms; Betsy, Camille, & Katrina (maybe others) that have pushed storm surge 75 miles up the river as evidenced by driftwood, logs, barges & commercial vessels atop the Miss. River levees. Powerful force indeed. Probably why old timers claimed that “storm came right up the river!”
 
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jssailem

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
21,886
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Francine is shaping to be an interesting storm. NHC is calling it to intensify over the Gulf to a Cat2 storm. But approaching the coast there is an upper level Tropical jet flowing West to East that will tend to shear the upper levels of the storm. Tilting the storm and disrupting the storms rotational system. Listen to your local forecast for cyclone and squall conditions on the north east side of the storm as it quickly comes ashore and progresses inland. Winds are being forecasted in the range 75-100 mph.

Be safe. As my old trainer used to say, “Batten down the hatches boys. Throw on your slicker. It’s going to be a cold wet night.”
 
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jssailem

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
21,886
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Staring at that image from the buoy for very long can make you seasick.
 
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JamesG161

JamesG161

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Feb 14, 2014
7,696
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Category 1 on landfall.

DAMMIT Jim...
 
smokey73

smokey73

.
Oct 26, 2010
1,999
Hunter 40.5 Beaufort, SC
Hope it doesn't shift your way DAMMIT Jim. Are you expecting much in the way of storm surge based on its point of landfall?
 
jssailem

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
21,886
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
As the storm builds and tries to move northward, it is encountering upper-level winds blowing from West to East.
This upper-level shear will help moderate the wind impact, spreading it to the east and tilting the storm.

Using Windy, here are two images of the storm. The first is at sea level, and the second is at 5500m (the 500hPa level used to help identify storm development and movement).

Screenshot 2024-09-11 at 09.01.22.png Screenshot 2024-09-11 at 09.02.29.png

This vertical displacement is a good thing.
 
jssailem

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
21,886
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Blended with this good sounding news is the fact that Francine is going to be a hurricane with 90 mph winds.
Be attentive to the caution signs from your local leaders.
 
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