• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Invest 97L --> TD 4 --> TS Debby —> Hurricane Debby

smokey73

smokey73

.
Oct 26, 2010
1,934
Hunter 40.5 Beaufort, SC
Interesting possible event for here in Beaufort SC. I have prepped my boat but it looks like some people are ignoring it, at least so far. The weather channel seems to be "stressing" that this is mostly a rain event. They keep saying that. Even when they do mention "sustained off shore winds" they couch it in terms of flooding risk, which it is of course. However, for us boaters, especially those with boats on moorings, they seem to be downplaying the sustained length of time we may be subject to strong gusting winds of 40kts or more for 12 or more hours and even the possibility for it to return and give us another dose of 40 kt gusts for another 12 hours or more. Those play heck on mooring lines with repeated loading and unloading. If it comes to pass I expect to see a boat or two missing from their mooring balls when it is all said and done. Can't make them do it though. I've sent an email to our yacht club manager but there may be some owners who would be happy to collect an insurance payout. I believe it happened that way when Matthew hit here back in 2016. Just hope one doesn't break free and hit me as it did with Matthew :yikes:
 
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jssailem

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
21,554
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Your insight is spot on Smokey. Only defensive thought would be to take pictures of moored boats that lack preparedness so that if the worse happens you might be able to sustain a negligence argument to assist in recovery of damages.
 
smokey73

smokey73

.
Oct 26, 2010
1,934
Hunter 40.5 Beaufort, SC
John, I plan on doing that but even then it is nearly impossible be to prove if a particular boat did the particular damage unless you are there watching it occur. They could also claim "it was some other boat, not mine" that hit your boat. Unless they take some part of your boat with them :yikes: you are left claiming it was their boat but likely with no real proof. That is what happened with Matthew. I was pretty sure which boat hit mine (4 broke free) but couldn't really prove it. Thing is, that owner did about as good a job at prepping his boat as he could (it was a big power boat with a lot of windage) and it still broke free.
 
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capta

capta

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Jun 4, 2009
4,819
Pearson 530 Admiralty Bay, Bequia SVG
It should be interesting to see what happens if Debby manages to get to SC with enough strength and rotation left to take advantage of the hot water of the Gulfstream.
 
jssailem

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
21,554
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Storm passage over Jim’s

�
TIME
(CDT)		5-day plot - Wind Direction
WDIR		5-day plot - Wind Speed
WSPD
kts		5-day plot - Wind Gust
GST
kts		5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure
PRES
in		5-day plot - Air Temperature
ATMP
°F		5-day plot - Water Temperature
WTMP
°F		5-day plot - Dew Point
DEWP
°F
2024-08-0406:05 pmS35.054.429.6870.587.6-
2024-08-0405:35 pmS38.952.429.6770.087.4-
2024-08-0405:05 pmS33.048.629.67-87.4-
2024-08-0412:35 pmS38.952.429.7179.387.879.3
2024-08-0412:05 pmSSE36.948.629.7280.187.879.9
2024-08-0411:35 amSSE36.948.629.7480.187.680.1
 
capta

capta

.
Jun 4, 2009
4,819
Pearson 530 Admiralty Bay, Bequia SVG
JamesG161 said:
It is all Big Dog's fault.

That HIGH is not moving fast enough.

Dammit Jim...
Click to expand
Before weather satellites and modern meteorological science, I used to say, "The only thing certain about a hurricane is its uncertainty.". But with all the meteorological information available to all of us these days, I guess it should now read, "The only thing certain about a hurricane is its uncertainty.".
 
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