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Sailing is all about the Weather.
Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.
Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.
Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.
Invest 94L --> TS Tammy --> Hurricane Tammy
- Thread starter JamesG161
- Start date
Hope so. Grahics on Windy show prevailing winds, once it approaches Carribean, should sweep it north into the Atlantic. With a little luck, hopefully we can close out the '23 hurricane season unscathed.
jssailem
SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
- Oct 22, 2014
- 22,406
While Tropical storm Sean is still out in the West Central Atlantic, it is dying/drying out with winds down in the 20knot range east of the Bahamas.
94L still well east of the Lesser Antilles looks to be strengthening as it moves north and west. The stable condition of the High Pressure in the Central Atlantic is forecast to have influence on 94L drawing it northerly and shaping the storm path to follow a fish storm route into the northern Atlantic.
It would be nice to sit back and say “Looks like the season is over.” Not what we should do, just yet.
While African Monsoons appear to be moving south and a desert High pressure cell is forming over the Sahara, there is a chance this weather structure could release a Low Pressure cell into the Atlantic late in the season. Gulf residents should also keep our eyes on the Pacific. This is a year of ENSO change. Any transition of this equatorial current can create instability in the wind and pressure cells. With the sun heading to it’s winter southern home there is opportunity for warm equatorial water conditions.
Just a couple more weeks team. Pray for the best, prepare for the other.
John
94L still well east of the Lesser Antilles looks to be strengthening as it moves north and west. The stable condition of the High Pressure in the Central Atlantic is forecast to have influence on 94L drawing it northerly and shaping the storm path to follow a fish storm route into the northern Atlantic.
It would be nice to sit back and say “Looks like the season is over.” Not what we should do, just yet.
While African Monsoons appear to be moving south and a desert High pressure cell is forming over the Sahara, there is a chance this weather structure could release a Low Pressure cell into the Atlantic late in the season. Gulf residents should also keep our eyes on the Pacific. This is a year of ENSO change. Any transition of this equatorial current can create instability in the wind and pressure cells. With the sun heading to it’s winter southern home there is opportunity for warm equatorial water conditions.
Just a couple more weeks team. Pray for the best, prepare for the other.
John
Yes, this is also time of year that cold fronts, with counter clockwise circulation, moving toward the carribean sea can kick up storms around the Yucatan. Still lots of hot water there. I remember around 30 years ago getting a Cat 1storm in mid November and don't forget Hurricane Mitch (Cat 5) that sunk the wind jammer "Fantome" on October 27, 1998 in the Gulf of Honduras.
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I remember well on 10/20/2020 my boat went ashore with Hurricane Zeta.
My Grandmother use to reply to this.
"Don't count your Chickens until Hatched"
Her reply: I better count them when the Chickens are Fryers!
Jim...
My Grandmother use to reply to this.
"Don't count your Chickens until Hatched"
Her reply: I better count them when the Chickens are Fryers!
Jim...
jssailem
SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
- Oct 22, 2014
- 22,406
Yes... There is still time for lots of weather..
James will keep his left eye on any developments and report... We are never sure where his right eye is looking..
James will keep his left eye on any developments and report... We are never sure where his right eye is looking..
That emoji is "I am going crazy"James will keep his left eye on any developments and report... We are never sure where his right eye is looking..
Jim...
jssailem
SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
- Oct 22, 2014
- 22,406
Looking at the macro picture over the next 10 days. Thursday19/Friday20 could bring a spot of rain. Other than that High Pressure is forecast to dominate the period. As the major pressure cells move through expect some good to strong sailing breezes followed by the usual lulls. Depending on the days of travel you may be able to schedule down wind runs in both directions.
Good luck. Weather is changeable.
Good luck. Weather is changeable.
This will be come Tropical Storm Tammy soon.
And then
Fish Storm Tammy
Jim...
And then
Fish Storm Tammy
Jim...
Tropical Storm Tammy strengthens as she slows down to make the Fish Storm turn.
Jim...
Jim...
jssailem
SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
- Oct 22, 2014
- 22,406
Tammy is not as big as the storm that disturbed the plans of @dLj from sailing to Ireland causing him to divert to the Azores, it is still a strong storm that will one to be avoided. As it heads out across the North Atlantic the storm will cut a path 150nm wide across the ocean with winds in the 50 knots range and large seas.
That's the sort of talk that Neptune might take as a challenge. Appease him with a we tot of rum in the ocean, tonight please.