• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

TS Hilary --> Hurricane Hilary [E Pacific]

JamesG161

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Feb 14, 2014
7,708
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
This Hurricane Season 2023 has been very active so far.

Note the name Hilary or #8 on that Area Naming list.
EP092023_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png


Jim...
 
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JamesG161

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Feb 14, 2014
7,708
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
I went to the typical News Cycle to see an Update on TS Hilary.:laugh:

If it wasn't so Political, I would post them. :pimp:

09E_intensity_latest.png


Back to the Weather.

Jim...
 

JamesG161

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Feb 14, 2014
7,708
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Hurricane Hilary will bring Wind and Rain in 4 days to SW California.

h Hilary.png


Jim...
 

JamesG161

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Feb 14, 2014
7,708
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
San Diego looks like the Landfall Zone Center.

Screenshot 2023-08-18 at 9.01.16 AM.png


I hope our Marine Corps sailor is prepared @Brian D

In Fact, time to think about Storm Preparations for all our boats!

Jim...
 

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
22,040
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Prepare Southern Cal. Hilary is marching onwards. 11 AM today 60 knot winds forecast in the Ensenada area.
IMG_4136.jpeg
 
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JamesG161

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Feb 14, 2014
7,708
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Oh My Gosh! Hurricane Hilary caused 10 times the rain in 2 days that Los Angles see this time of year.
Major flooding, mud slides and even caused an Earth Quake. :facepalm:

Not meaning to joke, but I saw this on a Post from L. A.

HQuake.png


Lake Mead is filling up too.

Jim...
 
Jun 11, 2004
1,697
Oday 31 Redondo Beach
Oh My Gosh! Hurricane Hilary caused 10 times the rain in 2 days that Los Angles see this time of year.
Major flooding, mud slides and even caused an Earth Quake. :facepalm:

Not meaning to joke, but I saw this on a Post from L. A.

View attachment 219112

Lake Mead is filling up too.

Jim...
With no intention of minimizing any difficulties anyone has had from Hilary, I love the way reality can be slanted.

Average August monthly rainfall for Los Angeles is -0- inches so almost any amount will work out to many multiples of normal.
We got more rain in each of the months January, February and March this year than we did from this storm. Granted, Hillary dropped it in a relatively short period but it is not unusual for our rain to come in bursts.

The rain did not cause the earthquake. It may cause landslides and mudslides but not earthquakes.

The picture is obviously a cobbled up joke.

Lake Mead is at 33% of capacity, 155 feet below full, and went up a whopping .16 feet (1.92 inches) for Sunday. While it all helps, I don't think anybody believes Lake Mead will ever get close to full in the foreseeable future.

:)
 

JamesG161

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Feb 14, 2014
7,708
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
I saw the Los Angles River with torrents of water flooding bring debris and more.

Famous movies , like Grease and Them, were filmed there.
Jim...
 

JamesG161

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Feb 14, 2014
7,708
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
The rain did not cause the earthquake
True.

But the Lower Atmospheric Pressure can !!!

Not joking about this at all.

Quakes.png


Jim...

PS: LA is nickname the Quakey City
 
Jun 11, 2004
1,697
Oday 31 Redondo Beach
I saw the Los Angles River with torrents of water flooding bring debris and more.

Famous movies , like Grease and Them, were filmed there.
Jim...
Yeah. The river was turned into a concrete lined flood control channel sometime in the 1930's. So its serving the purpose the Army Corps of Engineers designed it for. The only odd thing now is that it usually floods in the winter, not the summer. I know L.A. is known for its four seasons: Fire, Riot, Mudslide and Earthquake. I guess now we'll have to add Hurricane!

I do appreciate your weather posts. Thanks.
 
Jun 11, 2004
1,697
Oday 31 Redondo Beach
True.

But the Lower Atmospheric Pressure can !!!

Not joking about this at all.

View attachment 219132

Jim...

PS: LA is nickname the Quakey City
That would be interesting. Do you have any research that links atmospheric pressure to earthquakes?

Quakey City: :) My family has been here since the mid 1800's and I've heard L.A. called a lot of names but never that one.
 

JamesG161

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Feb 14, 2014
7,708
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
That would be interesting. Do you have any research that links atmospheric pressure to earthquakes?
Yes I do.

When Hurricane Katrina came over me 2005, we had more the 25 EarthQuakes a minute, but our only fault line is the Mississippi River.

Your Fault line is well known.

Jim...
 
Jun 11, 2004
1,697
Oday 31 Redondo Beach
I found this. Very interesting (to me at least).

"In fact, according to the U.S. Geological Survey, the only correlation that’s been noted between earthquakes and weather is that large changes in atmospheric pressure caused by major storms like hurricanes have been shown to occasionally trigger what are known as “slow earthquakes,” which release energy over comparatively long periods of time and don’t result in ground shaking like traditional earthquakes do. They note that while such large low-pressure changes could potentially be a contributor to triggering a damaging earthquake, “the numbers are small and are not statistically significant.”"

Alan Buis,
NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory
 

JamesG161

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Feb 14, 2014
7,708
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
PS: LA is nickname the Quakey City
My bad, Shaky City.

My brother was born in Ontario CA.
I remember sleeping on the floor when a Quake happened in the late 1950's shaking my G'Ma house and stuff falling off the walls.

Jim...