• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Atlantic Storm Activity

JamesG161

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Feb 14, 2014
7,728
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
All lot of tropical waves showing on NOAA maps today.

two_atl_7d0-2.png


Too many to address for now.

However it is the time for Western African Monsoons. Now thru October.

ts_al_tat_VSHD.gif


The Blue graph is actual Vorticity or the ablity to form a Heat Engine.

Jim...
 

JamesG161

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Feb 14, 2014
7,728
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
This is what is tempering the Atlantic now.

Screenshot 2023-08-20 at 8.08.07 AM.png


Upper level Westerlies.

The LOW is

Invest 90L


Jim...
 
May 17, 2004
5,475
Beneteau Oceanis 37 Havre de Grace
All lot of tropical waves showing on NOAA maps today.

View attachment 219050

Too many to address for now.

However it is the time for Western African Monsoons. Now thru October.

View attachment 219051

The Blue graph is actual Vorticity or the ablity to form a Heat Engine.

Jim...
Looking at the axis label I’d have though the blue line was wind shear speed, with more shear (as is common outside hurricane season) is less conducive to storm development?
 

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
22,406
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Yes David, Wind Shear is one of the issues monitored. Jim showed the Graphic of the 200 mb level. The winds there tend to "shear" the tops off the cyclonic storms. Robbing them of the vertical development that is observed in major hurricanes. They kind of get tipped on their sides.
Screenshot 2023-08-20 at 6.52.28 AM.png


We are monitoring 3 major Low Pressure cells in the Atlantic. This map shows Sea Surface Temps
Screenshot 2023-08-20 at 7.03.39 AM.png


98L is one that is being the influenced by these upper level steering currents. It is also in the zone of the Sahara Dust cloud that has a tendency to weaken the storm by drying it out. Size wise that is the biggest of the three we are watching. It's path is forecasted to spin north into the Central Atlantic.

Six is still forming.

90l (#2 Below) is one to keep an eye on. The Caribbean sea has plenty of warm water. Fuel rich environment for storm development. They will be flying a mission later today in to this storm.
Screenshot 2023-08-20 at 7.22.16 AM.png