• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Hurricane Season 2023

Rick Webb

Rick Webb

.
Jun 2, 2004
3,459
Hunter 23.5 Fort Walton Yacht Club, Florida
No four letter named storms beginning with a vowel.
According to my model we will have an uneventful year here in the central Florida panhandle.
 
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capta

capta

.
Jun 4, 2009
4,877
Pearson 530 Admiralty Bay, Bequia SVG
This isn't going to be an easy season to forecast. El Niño is increasingly likely, which tends to tamp down the number of storms. However, Atlantic Ocean water is very warm in most areas, which could enhance storms.
My opinion is that there will be fewer storms, but some of those will be stronger than usual.
 
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JamesG161

JamesG161

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Feb 14, 2014
7,717
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
capta said:
Atlantic Ocean water is very warm in most areas
Click to expand
As of today , so far, a bit cooler.

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

Jim...

PS: not likely El Niño will help this season.
 
Tally Ho

Tally Ho

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Jan 7, 2011
5,278
Oday 322 East Chicago, IN
I prefer my hillbilly weather station to most other weather forecasts

IMG_1780.png




Our local weather girl is easy on the eyes, but her forecasts are no better than mine.

Greg
 
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JamesG161

JamesG161

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Feb 14, 2014
7,717
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
@dlochner
It is more than just Statistics, CSU adds Dynamical models as inputs.
Then after each season, they do a "Hindcast" evaluation to improve their forecasts.

You should read their 2023 forecast I linked above in post #15

But here is their Hindcast graph from that report. It even has your r=.70 [correlation coefficient]:biggrin:

Screenshot 2023-05-27 at 9.48.57 AM.png


Jim...
 
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D

dlochner

.
Jan 11, 2014
12,348
Sabre 362 113 Fair Haven, NY
Jim,

You're answering questions I've not asked. Early in the thread, I read responses to your initial posts about what do these numbers mean? How do I interpret them? Those were the questions I was trying to answer.

Your posts are addressing how sausage is made. Mine are about cooking and eating the sausage. Related topics, different questions.
 
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