• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Hurricane season 2022 Analysis

JamesG161

JamesG161

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Feb 14, 2014
7,717
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
The NOAA and CSU forecasts for the 2022 Season were identified as “Very Active”.
This did not happen.
1680293971448.png


1680293998352.png



NHC tried to explain their error. [National Hurricane Center]

CSU did explain their error. [Colorado State University]

Main reasons for their STATISTICAL modeling Prediction.
  1. Neutral ENSO [La Niña/El Niño] to good La Niña [Rain and Westerlies]
  2. Strong African Monsoon season. [Source of the Atlantic Storms]
  3. Weaker Trade Winds [Slower Trek across the Atlantic]
  4. Higher than normal Sea Surface Temperatures [SST] in Tropical Atlantic and Caribbean.
______________________
On reflection, our W&F analysis was better.:biggrin:
_______
CSU
Analysis for the 2022 season:
The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season was a near-average season by most metrics, with slightly below-average levels of Accumulated Cyclone Energy. The seasonal hurricane forecasts issued in 2022 by the Tropical Meteorology Project predicted somewhat more activity than was observed.
  1. Basin wide statistics show a 95 ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) was generated during 2022, making the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season a near-average season by the NOAA definition. This is the first Atlantic season not classified as above average (>126 ACE) since 2015.
  2. The 1991-2020 average Atlantic ACE was 123
  3. The Atlantic had no named storm activity between July 3 and Aug. 31 – the first time since 1941 that the Atlantic had no named storm activity between those dates.
  4. Four hurricanes (Danielle, Earl, Fiona and Ian) formed in the Atlantic between September 2nd to 26th – the seventh time since the start of the active era (1995) that this has occurred. The other six years were: 1998, 2001, 2005, 2010, 2017 and 2020.
You can read their full analysis here. Tropical CSU
_________
NHC
Their explanation was very weak on Science. We leave it that simple. You can read it here.
Damaging 2022 Atlantic hurricane season draws to a close
________________________

Weather & Forecasting Forum
The Science that formed the forecasting for John and Jim during the 2022 Season.
Triple La Niña

1680294978164.png


In December 2022, Earth was in the grips of La Niña—an oceanic phenomenon characterized by the presence of cooler than normal sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. The current La Niña, relatively weak but unusually prolonged, began in 2020 and has returned for its third consecutive northern hemisphere winter, making this a rare “triple-dip” event. Other triple-dip La Niña’s recorded since 1950 spanned the years 1998-2001, 1973-1976, and 1954-1956.

The map above shows sea surface temperature anomalies on November 29, 2022. The signature of La Niña is visible in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean as areas of cooler-than-average water. From the South American coast to the international dateline, surface waters on this day were roughly 1°C (1.8°F) cooler than usual.
La Niña Times Three

All 3 of those La Nina's occurred during the Ends of a Solar Cycle.
  1. African Monsoons did not form significantly and move North enough.
  2. Sahara Dry Air stifled Atlantic Moisture.
  3. Trade winds did not fully develop until late in Hurricane season.
  4. SST (Sea Surface Temperatures) were colder in the Atlantic and Higher in pockets of the Caribbean. This influenced the way Hurricanes that formed, reacted.
    1. Hurricane Lisa made landfall on November 2 in Belize – the first landfalling hurricane in Belize in November since 1942
    2. Hurricane Ian made landfall after crossing the Atlantic as a weak Tropical Depression strengthened into Tropical Storm in late September and became a Hurricane after absorbing the latent heat of the Caribbean off the coast of Columbia. With maximum sustained winds of 130 kt. Ian is tied with five other hurricanes for the 5th strongest continental US hurricane landfall on record.
1680295317457.png


Note: the North Pole Ice is at its Maximum and South Pole Ice is at its Minimum date on chart above. [Seasonal changes]
________
Editorial Note
Both @JamesG161 and @jssailem opinions are based on science, but NHC is the place to consult for local Forecasts and Warnings.
_______

Why do we analyze what we do here?
We try to provide the best tools and information to help Sailboaters during the year.

Also the new forecast for the 2023 Tropical Season will be done on

April 13th, 2023

Jim and John
 
  • Like
  • Helpful
Likes: Hayden Watson, capta and jssailem
jssailem

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
22,298
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Yes @ggrizzard from your perspective it was an active season.

In recorded history you have had a lot more than we have in the PacificNW.
  • 2017: Hurricane Irma ripped through Volusia County with winds up to 79 mph.
  • 2016: Hurricane Matthew ripped through Volusia County with winds up to 100 mph.
  • 2004: Hurricanes Charley, Jeanne, Ivan, and Frances tore through Florida making this an unprecedented Hurricane Season.
  • 1999: Hurricane Irene ripped through Volusia County and Ponce Inlet with winds up to 100 mph.
  • 1960: Hurricane Donna ripped through Volusia County and Ponce Inlet with winds up to 100 mph
But multiple Hurricanes, according to reported history are not abnormal in Florida.

Jim and I try to prepare the best advanced notice we can develop. Give the information to help sailors prepare for the possible. Then pray the conditions will be more gentle to the sailors then we fear.
 
  • Like
Likes: ggrizzard and JamesG161
capta

capta

.
Jun 4, 2009
4,877
Pearson 530 Admiralty Bay, Bequia SVG
I also have been monitoring and making an effort to keep myself and others who cared to listen, cyclonic tropical storm information for where I am.
Interestingly, a number of "very bad" storms I encountered during my 1970-1979 circumnavigation, turned out to be hurricanes or cyclones. But, at that time we had about 5 minutes of weather info available per ocean or area, twice a day. At times, we knew there was a storm in the offing, but the only way we knew if that storm was going to hit us directly was if it hit the windward side first. Today, with the satellite info available, I feel quite comfortable with my own predictions, to the point of being just about the only boat anchored in Tyrell Bay as Ian passed to the south of us.
There are a lot of things that limit the US government entities from being better at disseminating storm information, but IMO the biggest problem is the "cry wolf syndrome" (hence fatal hurricane parties, etc). The other is that they can be sued for getting it wrong.
This can create catastrophic results, as we've seen in the past. When I lived in the Keys, the NHC was allowed to broadcast a Hurricane Warning 36 hours in advance of a storm's landfall. At the time, it took over 40 hours to evacuate the Keys. It is probably much longer now.
In 2004 a few of us and some of the forecasters at the NHC had an informal discussion group, trying to do a bit better at getting it right. All in all, we did very well, except for Ivan, yet the public never got much benefit from this because of the government constraints.
As for the science of it all, at times it seems the powers that be just make up things to keep the "medicine man" mystique to it all. I was between Hawaii and Tahiti when the Inter-tropical Convergence Zones were invented (actually they had always been there, just known as the doldrums) and the world switched from GMT to Universal Coordinated time. I never did figure out if the two were basically the same until I arrived in Tahiti. However, my celestial worked fine so it seemed I guessed right. lol
Still, I wish I could have a well paying job which I could get wrong at least half the time, and not lose my job. Sometimes, I equate being a meteorologist to being a captain who repeatedly sinks his boat when trying to leave the dock.
 
  • Ha
Likes: jssailem
jssailem

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
22,298
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Join us anytime @capta. Your insights would be priceless. Sad that your informal discussion group could not have an impact.

Agree that the state of the science is improving. One book I read, that should be in every sailors library, "And soon I heard a Roaring Wind" by Bill Streever talks about the development of the science and the complexity (with errors) involved in todays reporting.

There are no guarantees. You need to be self sufficient and prepare for the worst. After the storm passes, you'll know what you did right and what needs improvement.
 
  • Helpful
Likes: JamesG161
JamesG161

JamesG161

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Feb 14, 2014
7,717
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
JamesG161 said:
All 3 of those La Nina's occurred during the Ends of a Solar Cycle.
Click to expand
This the key to most of the Science on Storms.

Solar Cycles

John and I use these to monitor the Biggest Solar Energy Absorber on the Earth

North Pacific Ocean
Screen Shot 2023-04-02 at 5.17.09 PM.png

This is today Sat view.

We noted above on the Triple La Niña
____________
This is to show some Solar Science. Red Arrow did not Happen.
Cycle22Cycle23Cycle24big.jpeg


and the Sun for that period.
Image 1-4-23 at 8.54 AM.jpeg


Do you note the Energy Hitting the Earth changes?

More to come on this Science soon.

Jim and John
 
Don S/V ILLusion

Don S/V ILLusion

.
Sep 25, 2008
7,290
Alden 50 Sarasota, Florida
Some slippery slope stuff here when you fail to consider -
difference between solar flux and solar radiation
earth orbit or it variation and proximity
Humboldt current variation and to a lesser extent the Gulf Stream current

its a puzzle.
 
JamesG161

JamesG161

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Feb 14, 2014
7,717
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Don S/V ILLusion said:
its a puzzle.
Click to expand
The first outside of Earth Solar Energy was first measured by ...

Sky Lab
1973

It was recalibrated since then.

Why?

Space Station have people, who are alerted, to get behind lead shielding.

The Seasons change the Angle of Incidence .

More to come on the "Slippery Slope"

Ham radio operators like you, should know those effects.;)

Jim...
 
  • Like
Likes: jssailem
jssailem

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
22,298
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Don S/V ILLusion said:
its a puzzle.
Click to expand
Don you are absolutely correct. It is a puzzle.

Sadly the agencies in the place to know, choose for funding reasons, to focus their expertise in areas that fail to solve the puzzle, keeping them in business to continue their work.

There are young PhD's of meteorological science who, while in study observe these issues yet leave their hemisphere to continue to pursue there dreams of study.

There is no "magical" solution there is only observation and communication.

I hope we can continue to attempt to solve such a puzzle some of the time.
 
  • Helpful
Likes: JamesG161
walt

walt

.
Jun 1, 2007
3,532
Macgregor 26S Hobie TI Ridgway Colorado
.
The first outside of Earth Solar Energy was first measured by ...

Sky Lab
1973

It was recalibrated since then.

Why?

Space Station have people, who are alerted, to get behind lead shielding
Click to expand
.

Cool subject.. I worked in Nuclear and Space radiation effects from around 1980 to 1990 dealing with all sorts of aspects of electronics degradation. Levels were fairly well characterized as well as the degradation in electrical components. Whomever was paying set the spec for the mission, the designers had to meet the spec. Don't know what has happened since then. Solar radiation power measured from satellites is overall a very straight forward measurement.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Top Bottom