Down turn in the financial markets and FED money at 0%, what will that mean for boat prices.

Jan 11, 2014
11,710
Sabre 362 113 Fair Haven, NY
This seems to be an unprecedented financial crisis (other than the stock market crash in 1929). And it sort of feels that this could trigger a similar depression.
Yes, this is an unprecedented financial and public health crisis for a lot of reasons, however, sticking to the financial aspects, I don't think this is like the 1929 Collapse and subsequent depression. It is probably more like the 2001 financial crisis after 9/11. In that crisis, the recession and market collapse was not driven by a structural problem or bubble like the collapse of the Tech Bubble or the many problems in 2008-09 Great Recession. In 2001 there was a shock to the country and we ran for shelter, that caused a drop in the stock market and people becoming more conservative in their discretionary spending and run for shelter. When uncertainty reigns, people want cash, hard currency, and security for their assets. As people become more confident in their security, the economy expanded with creative and risky financing driving a housing bubble that collapsed in 2008-09.

This insult to the world's economy is much more like the post 9/11 insult and I think we should look at how that recovery worked. The other relevant crisis is the 2008-09 crisis. I believe the consensus among economists now is the stimulus packages should have been larger and that would have effected a quicker recovery. The Feds seem to have learned that lesson and are providing much needed stimulus to the economy and economic support for those most in need.
 
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May 25, 2012
4,338
john alden caravelle 42 sturgeon bay, wis
i ain't selling any boats, so it's all mute to me :)

nice guns Phil!

i've always been thrilled by battleships.

BB64 is my favorite
 
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Apr 16, 2017
841
Federation NCC-1701 Riverside
What if i threw a number like 100k used boats, (power and sail ) being dropped on the market within the next 2 years.

Would that be a big number?
 

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
21,433
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Yes Bobby. It sounds like a big number.
 

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
21,433
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Our service industries are going to be hit hard by these events.

I am thinking that this may be more of a V shaped financial event than the drop we saw in 2008. But it is anybody’s guess. I also think boat values both power and sail will be depressed over the next 6-18 months. Depends on consumer confidence. CC has been shattered currently. Let’s hope it gets better quickly for the good of all.
 
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JamesG161

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Feb 14, 2014
7,575
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
I just had a discussion with my financial advisor [also my nephew who looks out for me].

The ups and downs are market players.

Sell short, buy back the next day.

They take advantage of the panic sellers.

My Bond fund is sky rocketing.

Stay calm...
Jim...
 
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Jan 11, 2014
11,710
Sabre 362 113 Fair Haven, NY
I just had a discussion with my financial advisor [also my nephew who looks out for me].

The ups and downs are market players.

Sell short, buy back the next day.

They take advantage of the panic sellers.

My Bond fund is sky rocketing.

Stay calm...
Jim...
Yep. On the street they call it a "dead cat bounce." Savvy traders and computer programs take advantage of it.
 
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Apr 16, 2017
841
Federation NCC-1701 Riverside
Yep. On the street they call it a "dead cat bounce." Savvy traders and computer programs take advantage of it.
its also great way to lose everything. If one is simply shorting and buying then be careful with the volatility. The volitility will trigger the stop and limit orders you set and either put you in a position you didnt plan, or sell you out at a discount before climbing back up.

For the knife catchers out there that follow this..what time scale do you use?

If you dont have an AI program trading for you, plan long-term. Historically, the market has always recovered from any loss (SPY).
 
Jul 27, 2011
5,034
Bavaria 38E Alamitos Bay
I watch Squawk Box nearly every morning with coffee. This morning one of the commentators pointed out that everything is going down together. Namely, equities, bonds (i.e., credit market), gold, and commodities generally, including oil. To him, it reflects a scramble to accumulate cash. Build one’s cash position; increase liquidity with increasing uncertainty, etc. People hoarding cash like TP. Then, there is the likely unprecedented run on firearms and ammunition happening here in the states:doh:. Today, B of A was offering home equity lines of credit at 1.74% interest for the first 12 months.

By the time people emerge from this histeria, there may remain a lot of financial carnage, and a mountain of CASH--trillions—in the collective hands of many people. Where will it go initially? Some may go to boats, but I reckon more toward other inflation-compensated hard assets. That will drive up those prices.
 
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Oct 19, 2017
7,764
O'Day 19 Littleton, NH
By the time people emerge from this histeria, there may remain a lot of financial carnage, and a mountain of CASH--trillions—in the collective hands of many people.
These are all very good points.
I don't participate in the market in any significant way, so I'm kinda making this up as I go here.
King's point about cash on hand makes sense and the average small investor may end up like that. Stock prices are plunging because the pressure to sell is higher than the pressure to buy, but someone is buying those depressed stocks or no one would be selling.
With interest rates at or near zero, I think we are looking at a lot of savvy people growing their wealth enormously and at the end of this, prices for new luxury goods, like expensive yachts will soar, while the small used boat market will dive. Good news for people like me, but this will also be bad news for the small new boat market. This, however may be short lived as jobs become more plentiful in the manufacturing sectors where investors have migrated with their 0% government sourced finances. Less exportation of labor, but flattened wages of a "recovering" economy, means more security and less liquidity for most of us.
I think we'll see overpriced boats moving slowly and small boat manufacturers struggling for a while. They will move mie into their high-end luxury lines and may even discontinue less profitable economy options.

-Will (Dragonfly)
 

TomY

Alden Forum Moderator
Jun 22, 2004
2,762
Alden 38' Challenger yawl Rockport Harbor
Watching the decline in the stock market I began wondering what that might mean for the sailboat market.

If one was feeling the need to go bigger, would the prices of good boats be in a decline?

What are your thoughts?
My first thoughts went to the new boat market, much of which is custom or semi custom up here.

Anyone heavily invested in the stock market for the last 10 years has seen a steady climb in their net worth. Many of these long term investors buy luxury items like second homes and new yachts based (leveraged to loan or as cash back up) on the hefty gains they've accrued.

The luxury realestate market has reported lost contracts. It only seems like common sense that somebody contemplating or just in the process of buying a new boat would be likely to consider bailing out as they're seen their net worth shrink by at least 20%, and no bottom in sight.

Upgrading boat size even in the used market would be the same for many (401k's, etc) only a difference of relativity.

So yes, the price of good boats are likely to decline which is hard to fathom at the low rate they were at before this current loss to many.
 
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Jan 11, 2014
11,710
Sabre 362 113 Fair Haven, NY
When times become challenging it is (unfortunately) human nature to focus on the doom and gloom. For people who earn their living off of other people's discretionary income it will be very difficult for a while. Not a good time to be in the travel industry or a restaurant worker. Nationwide, only 10% of the working population is employed in the Leisure and Hospitality sector, that of course varies by region. Another 10 % work retail. That leaves about 80% of the working population in jobs that will be less affected by social distancing. Employment by major industry sector : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

People tend to spend discretionary money based on their perceived wealth. With the market suffering such large declines perceived wealth has diminished and so discretionary spending will decline, which is precisely what the economy does not need. For those of us with means, we should be spending. The vacation homes in Maine need new kitchens so @TomY can earn a living and it is way past time to upgrade electrical systems on all those classic boats in Maine so @Maine Sail can retire before he's 92. Remember, your spending is someone else's income.

At the beginning of the Great Recession in 2009 I was Commodore of our YC. We were flush with cash (the bar business was great) and the club needed some improvements. A survey was conducted to determine which projects to undertake. One response that I have not forgotten was "We can't spend money now, we're in a recession!" Wrong answer. If we hunker down and retreat, hoarding our cash we will go into a recession.

While it is true, that we're all going to die, most of us will not die soon or from Covid-19. It is time to spend some money to support others and quit buying TP, we all have at least a 6 month supply by now. Tip a little more generously at the restaurant, keep buying boat parts, (I know where you can get a good deal on a Sterling Charger) and remember the market will come back and come back faster the more we keep our heads about us.
 
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Jan 1, 2006
7,173
Slickcraft 26 Sailfish
I've supported and am practicing the self isolation because I'm hoping that we could see a reduction in new cases fairly rapidly. So to me it's like ripping a band aid off. Quick and painful. I do think the gov and media are well past science and into scare mongering. China and Korea have shown us a path. Testing and isolation. Let's take it and get this behind us. There will be pent up demand for goods and services which hopefully will result in a robust recovery of a wiser nation.
 

Dr. D

.
Nov 3, 2018
278
Beneteau Oceanis 35.1 Herrington Harbour North
This insult to the world's economy is much more like the post 9/11 insult and I think we should look at how that recovery worked.
You are missing an important difference, the length of the event. 9/11 caused a tremendous upset, but the impact on businesses and everyday life did not last too long. The current crisis will last for months (maybe to August) and many small businesses will go under. The unemployment rate will soar and very slowly decrease.

Heaps of cash? That won't be the situation for all the people who will lose their jobs.

Look here for some numbers:

 
Jul 27, 2011
5,034
Bavaria 38E Alamitos Bay
I doubt one’s actual drop in net worth is defined by stock market “losses.” It depends on where your assets are deployed. Home equity, cash/cash equivalents on hand, other property of enduring value, etc. Also, unless you’re in an unmanaged index fund, your stock investment may not lose the same percentage as the DOW. Say you have a net worth of $800K but where only $400K is invested in a diversified 401k portfolio such that your unrealized loss is only 17% to the DOW’s 20%, but where cash and property hardly move. You have (0.83 x 400)/800 = 0.915. That’s a 8.5% drop in net worth, etc. That $68K paper loss, however, is likely in your eyes the boat, or at least part of it, that you were going to buy, etc. If you lose your income for long, then yeah, your net worth would fall pretty fast if you needed to start spending from the portfolio.:(

If you have a 25% drop in diversified portfolio value relative to the DOW’s 30%, then you’d have (0.25 x 400)/800 = 0.875. That’s a 12.5% drop in net worth on paper, etc.
 
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Feb 6, 1998
11,677
Canadian Sailcraft 36T Casco Bay, ME
Look here for some numbers:

As of right now those numbers, if they are accurate, are showing an averaged (world wide) 4.1% mortality rate among confirmed cases... :yikes: Scary stuff......
 
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Jul 27, 2011
5,034
Bavaria 38E Alamitos Bay
This is could be fear mongering IMHO.These people know only at this point the death rate of people with symptoms or who got tested. They do not know the death rate relative to all of the people infected, etc., who were not counted. It’s like saying that if the number people who die from auto collisions is 4%, this equates to a 4% death rate for all drivers on the road.
 
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Jan 11, 2014
11,710
Sabre 362 113 Fair Haven, NY
This is fear mongering IMHO.These people know only at this point the death rate of people with symptoms or who got tested. They do not know the death rate relative to all of the people infected, etc., who were not counted. It’s like saying that if the number people who die from auto collisions is 4%, this equates to a 4% death rate for all drivers.
This is simply a superficial number. As KG points out, it is only based on those who have been positively identified has having the virus. The death rate is not normally distributed amongst the population, it is heavily skewed towards the elderly (80+ years) and those with chronic respiratory disease or suppressed immune systems.

This is not to dismiss the importance of containing the virus, but rather to put it in perspective. For the vast majority of us the virus does not appear to be a life threatening illness, although having the virus is likely an very unpleasant experience. We are self-isolating to protect the most vulnerable among us.
 
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Dr. D

.
Nov 3, 2018
278
Beneteau Oceanis 35.1 Herrington Harbour North
This is not to dismiss the importance of containing the virus, but rather to put it in perspective. For the vast majority of us the virus does not appear to be a life threatening illness, although having the virus is likely an very unpleasant experience. We are self-isolating to protect the most vulnerable among us.
And thank you for self-isolating!

My wife and I are into "older" group (mid-60's) and she has issues with her immune system. Her rheumatologist says she is high risk.
 
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