• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

STS Melissa <--Invest 93L + Invest 92L + Non-Tropical FL

JamesG161

JamesG161

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Feb 14, 2014
7,425
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
NOAA is watching a LOW area off Florida East Coast.
It appears to have been hatched by a Passing HIGH and the Land resistance to the subsequent falling HIGH.

It is kinda trapped and should make for a challenging Sail Along the East Coast all week.

Not sure how NOAA will name this disturbance.
Jim...
 
smokey73

smokey73

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Oct 26, 2010
1,905
Hunter 40.5 Beaufort, SC
Dammit Jim, Maybe a little off topic but what is the "deal" with NOAA "naming" just about anything that rotates? Many, if not all, marine insurance policies increase the deductible for a "named storm." Is this some collusion (popular term now) between NOAA and the insurance companies. Years back it didn't seem to be that way. :banghead:
 
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kloudie1

kloudie1

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Nov 6, 2006
9,894
Hunter 34 Mandeville Louisiana
Yeah.. Blame it on the satellites and accurate remote sensing.. a two edged sword! Our home insurance policies have that same "named storm" clause … and interestingly, some companies are offering an "adder" to the policy to take the "named storm" deductible increase back to normal.. essentially raising your house policy price all year to mitigate a possible huge deductible.. For me, it was about $200 extra per year.. kind of a "no brainer" when tens of thousands of dollars of deductible is mitigated (if a storm causes a problem) ..
 
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smokey73

smokey73

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Oct 26, 2010
1,905
Hunter 40.5 Beaufort, SC
I don't see the satellites and accurate remote sensing as much of a factor. If anything, it should be able to determine the threshold more accurately and thus just name storms that should really be changed. Have they changed the threshold for naming? I am probably wrong and just being cynical but I don't remember them "naming" every tropical storm at least several years back. Maybe it didn't impact me much when I was in Tennessee and Pennsylvania so I didn't pay attention to it much. I guess I'm just cynical.

And Kloudie, you are right it impacts my home insurance deductible.
 
jssailem

jssailem

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Oct 22, 2014
21,114
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Just my opinion but it appears the NOAA folk get better publicity when they name a storm than when they don’t. The National news like a name to feature. Gives them an entity to blame. Tropical Depression 312 just does not have the same pizazz as Dorian or Mathew.
“Mathew is hitting the coast like an out of control freight train!”

insert ‘Tropical Depression 313’ and it just doesn’t have the same dramatic impact.

Perhaps it’s time for the insurance Industry to get more specific. Not use names use wind conditions such as gale force to differentiate their risk exposure.
 
smokey73

smokey73

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Oct 26, 2010
1,905
Hunter 40.5 Beaufort, SC
jssailem said:
Perhaps it’s time for the insurance Industry to get more specific. Not use names use wind conditions such as gale force to differentiate their risk exposure.
Click to expand
Agreed! But then again I can't believe that NOAA is oblivious to the fact that it directly and immediately impacts residents and consumer. Surely they can't be ignorant to the implications of naming a storm. Does not a single NOAA big wig live on the coast? I find it more likely that the Insurance Industry Lobby has influenced this to a great extent. It doesn't make sense otherwise.
 
smokey73

smokey73

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Oct 26, 2010
1,905
Hunter 40.5 Beaufort, SC
What is interesting is that we don't even have to have significant winds at our location to kick in the higher deductible. If its a named storm and the winds at our particular location, because of distance to the storm or the fact that it has not impacted us occurs are no more than a moderate thuderstorm, as long as the winds, however minor they are, are part of that "named system" then the deductible increase is in effect. What a Sc%$w job that is.

Sorry for hi-jacking the thread
 
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B

Benny17441

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May 24, 2004
7,131
CC 30 South Florida
was looking at The Hurricane Center reports and all they identify is a disturbance currently in the Florida Straights which is forecasted to merge with a frontal boundary by Wednesday with no further development after that. We need the rain. Our avocado weather predictors indicate we are good for this week. Mentioning named storms around here sure gets everyone's attention.
 
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JamesG161

JamesG161

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Feb 14, 2014
7,425
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
JamesG161 said:
Not sure how NOAA will name this disturbance
Click to expand
My bad. I should have said "Describe" versus Name.

two_atl_5d0.png

There are 3 now.:yikes:

I would Describe them as "Disturbances of a non-tropical nature".
It appears that a Big HIGH that passed over the North East over the weekend, is spinning up the Yellow ones up and Blocking the Orange one.

NOAA models has the YELLOWs combining and being blocked by the next HIGH in the next few days.
______
I was trying to wake up @jssailem , for his opinion, but the Birthday boy was Flying to New Mexico.
______
Technically speaking, and the reason I started this Post, was that Florida Straits disturbance started north of Cuba.

Jim...

PS: Trust me all of them will receive a NAME.
 
JamesG161

JamesG161

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Feb 14, 2014
7,425
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
The European Models have all 3 of the LOWs combining into a Super LOW by the weekend.

OMG it will Nestor, Olga and Pablo all combined in one.
or NeOlPa or just NOP.:laugh:

Does that mean triple the deductible?
Jim...
 
kloudie1

kloudie1

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Nov 6, 2006
9,894
Hunter 34 Mandeville Louisiana
Laughing, Jim.. I am sure an insurance actuary is considering that issue right now !
@smokey73, My take is that many of these named things would not have been known except for an errant ship report which would have been spotty.. now the NOAA boys can see the whole picture and even estimate ( sh*tty accuracy at ground level) the wind speeds.
We just had a case where a guy's home was damaged a few hours before the storm was named. He documented the time of the damage but the insurance guys wanted him to have to pay the extra deductable.. He ended up not having to pay the additional but had to swim through some poopoo to get them to drop it..
 
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shemandr

shemandr

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Jan 1, 2006
7,078
Slickcraft 26 Sailfish
I'm sure you other skeptics have noticed that even 'Noreasters get a name and snow storms too. I'm not a big fan of Big Government but it seems like the INSCO's can do whatever they want with impunity. It could be argued that if they couldn't raise deductables for storms they would simply leave the market or set rates too high for very many of us to afford coverage. Imagine what would happen in the mortgage and real estate industries if that happened. :yikes: They've go us by the short ones. But NOAA doesn't have to make it that easy for them.
I'm planning to go fishing in the Keys this weekend - or not.
 
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Davidasailor26

Davidasailor26

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May 17, 2004
5,080
Beneteau Oceanis 37 Havre de Grace
shemandr said:
I'm sure you other skeptics have noticed that even 'Noreasters get a name and snow storms too
Click to expand
But winter storm names are just media creations of the Weather Channel, not official NOAA names. I’d hope the media names don’t invoke the insurance company clauses.
As for tropical systems - I haven’t noticed any changes to thresholds for getting a name. Tropical Depressions are numbered; once they hit storm strength (35 kts) they are named. The only thing new I’ve seen is the Potential Tropical Cyclone, but those are numbered not named.
 
smokey73

smokey73

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Oct 26, 2010
1,905
Hunter 40.5 Beaufort, SC
Davidasailor26 said:
As for tropical systems - I haven’t noticed any changes to thresholds for getting a name. Tropical Depressions are numbered; once they hit storm strength (35 kts) they are named. The only thing new I’ve seen is the Potential Tropical Cyclone, but those are numbered not named.
Click to expand
It may just be a matter of perception on my part as to the naming.
 
shemandr

shemandr

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Jan 1, 2006
7,078
Slickcraft 26 Sailfish
I probably let my antipathy for INSCO's get ahead of the facts - which I didn't know. I thought NOAA named the winter storms, and other storms.
 
shemandr

shemandr

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Jan 1, 2006
7,078
Slickcraft 26 Sailfish
No sailing planned. My Bro is a fisherguy. Hopefully Thursday will be calm enough. If not we'll work on his roof.:dancing: Here it's rain/sun repeat.
 
Gene Neill

Gene Neill

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Sep 30, 2013
3,542
1988 Catalina 22 North Florida
At least we're finally getting some rain here! We haven't had a drop since Dorian brushed by, and we got only a few drops from him. The last 24 hours have been a wonderful soft, soaking drizzle. My "yard" (the place where I occasionally mow the weeds to a semi-uniform height) is greatly relieved.
 
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