Joachim latest discussion from NHC

[richk]

at 0500 EDT today

"Confidence in the details of the track forecast late in the period
remains very low, since the environmental steering currents are
complex and not being handled in a consistent manner by the models.
Given that a wide range of outcomes is possible, it is too soon to
say what impacts, if any, Joaquin will have on the United States."

 

[Brian D]

Wouldn't it be easier to say "We don't know what Joachim is up to." Talk about a run around answer.

TEACHER: Are you done with your math test?
STUDENT: Confidence in the details of the last math problem late in the period
remains very low, since the environmental steering currents of my erasure are
complex and not being handled in a consistent manner by the models.
Given that a wide range of mathematical solutions are possible, it is too soon to
say what impact, if any, my answer will have on my final grade.

 

[woodster]

Wouldn't it be easier to say "We don't know what Joachim is up to." Talk about a run around answer.

TEACHER: Are you done with your math test?
STUDENT: Confidence in the details of the last math problem late in the period
remains very low, since the environmental steering currents of my erasure are
complex and not being handled in a consistent manner by the models.
Given that a wide range of mathematical solutions are possible, it is too soon to
say what impact, if any, my answer will have on my final grade.

the weather guy and the math student are frat bros from Ga tech i think... and are sitting at the Varsity eating one of those world famous gut bombs for sure

 

[jibes138]

Check out this web site if you haven't already. Lots of good info integrated on one page.
http://spaghettimodels.com/

 

[Gunni]

The whole point of these hurricane prediction discussions is to show the layman just how complex hurricane prediction can be, and what elements are in play. If you can't process multi-variant complexities and need a black/white instruction you are better off waiting until the storm picks up a head of steam and the variables fall away into a clear track/force. Or you could run your hurricane-prep drill now to keep your process sharp, and relieve the anxiety of uncertainty.

 

[MrBill_FLL]

the tracking works great! if you live in Fla....

still, watching though... Andrew was suppose to go north too.

 

[richk]

update to the 0500 discussion
as of 1100 EDT today
"1. Confidence in the details of the track forecast late in the
period remains low, since the environmental steering currents are
complex and the model guidance is inconsistent. A wide range of
outcomes is possible, from a direct impact of a major hurricane
along the U.S. east coast to a track of Joaquin out to sea away from
the coast. It is therefore way too soon to talk about specific
wind, rain, or surge impacts from Joaquin in the U.S.

2. Should the threat to the U.S. increase, any further adjustments
of the forecast to the west would likely be accompanied by an
increase in the forecast forward speed, with impacts along the coast
occurring sooner than currently forecast. A hurricane watch could
be required for portions of the U.S. coast as early as Thursday
evening.

3. Many areas of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing heavy
rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system. This
inclement weather is expected to continue over the next few days,
which could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head
toward the coast."

 

[shemandr]

I got my runabout out this pm so a tree might fall on it but at least I won't have to extricate from it's dock next week. As we get into tonight conditions will worsen and I will be at work when there might be other opportunities.
Now where's that Hurricane Preparation list?