Sad News For Sailing.......

[kloudie1]

My Humble opinion is that the production boats are getting better and better .. to the point where the outrageous prices that guys like Sabre were/are asking are just not in the park any more.. I have crewed on a couple of Sabres in long (4-5 days) races and noted that 1, they are great boats.. and 2 they are/were not three times better than a good production boat. They are a victim of not getting "better" enough (as the production guys increase their quality) to justify the much higher price.

 

[Apex]

I think the premioum boat brands are also provided many unseen or difficult to see improvements that may indeed be worth 3X. Lamination schedules, hardware, electrical installation, plumbing, ease of service etc. New boat buyers may not see beyond the shiny new. Comparing checklist length instead of quality of said checklist. Then dig under floorboards, behind panels, under the hardware, backing plates, coring, laminates (i.e. carbon fiber) watertight bulkheads and the like. Now I am certainly not versed in the latest esp considering I am in a production boat, 30yrs old. For all of the quality, those that likely benefit in short ownership schedules of today's world is the used boat market.

 

[Old Skool Neil]

During the heyday of the industry we were building for the upper middle class, the middle class and entry level, we built for the racers and the coastal cruisers. The real core of the industry did not cater to the ultra rich.

The I.O.R. would change bi-annually (I think, seemed that way) so the racers would buy a new boat with every rules change to take advantage of the latest loopholes. At first glance it may seem good for business but the reality was very different. The bean counters determined it took 100 units produced to cover the cost of tooling. As a typical example, the innovative Ranger 37, a.k.a. Ranger One Ton, sold 44 units before the rule changed again and the market wanted something different. That's a loser businesswise. However, an intangible benefit was the brand's racing pedigree and its effect on other model sales.

Racer/cruisers were popular in the era, boats with good performance and attractive amenities. In truth they were a compromise of the extremes doing neither particularly well but they were still the bread and butter of a booming industry. The performance (and pedigree as mentioned above) sold the guys, the amenities, colors and fabrics sold their wives. We learned very quickly no one could kill the purchase of a boat faster that a wife so interior appointments were important. At Islander we even hired an interior decorator for color and fabric schemes.

Hard core cruisers like the Westsail were a niche market, not really in the heat of the meat in terms of the industry.

The point of all that is the greatest days of the sailboat industry catered to the average schmo. We also realized making 10% on 1000 boats was better than 50% on 10 boats so price tolerance of the buyer was of paramount importance too.

Yep, good times.

 

[Scott B]

I was chatting with my buddy who works for Sabre Yachts, and we had an interesting discussion.

He mentioned how busy they are with a new 54 under construction and 4 or 5 more orders of that model behind it. They are also moving forward on a 66 footer. Things are booming along at Sabre Yachts. Sadly, these are ALL power boats!

I asked him, because business seems so good, if perhaps they had any sailboat orders. Sabre had said they they would build them, if asked to but were ceasing "production".. He said no.

He then told me he just watched the 456 molds being destroyed along with others over the last few weeks.. One of the only molds they were not destroying was the Spirit...

It is a sad day for sailing when Sabre starts cutting up their sailboat molds. Here in Maine, as one would guess, Sabres are one of the more popular sailboats on the coast. Well built, good sailing and good looking.. Sad that they have come to an end..........

Interesting enough, Sabre is listed as coming to the Toronto Boat Show Jan. 11. As far as I know this is the first time. I assume it will be the 38 judging by the size of their booth. Looking forward to seiing one up close.

Beneteau and Jeanneau are also listed as bringing their power versions as well.

 

[Scott T-Bird]

Economic stratification

I think that there are some economic forces at work. The last downturn has exacerbated the separation of wealth and boat buying demographics are a microcosm of the economy as a whole. As fewer people are enjoying wealth and as those who are wealthy are amassing far greater wealth, the extravagances of boat buying habits among the wealthy is on the rise, while the numbers of overall purchasers is probably declining. So we see fewer purchasers, but those who are purchasing at the high end are spending more money than ever before.

But the numbers are not in favor of sailboats. Consider that about 9 of 10 boat purchasers are buying power boats. If that ratio doesn't change, sailboat manufacturers are basically always on the edge of viability. A small drop-off of orders for Sabre, spells the end of their production of sailboats.

Also consider that many of the people who formally would consider Sabre as a viable option, could be suffering enough of a loss of fortune that they are now thinking that Benes, Hunter, Catalina, Bavaria, Dufour are now more in their wheelhouse. The downgrading of the economy for many formerly higher-end purchasers are probably a reason for sustained relative strength in the more economical brands. I'd also not be surprised if Sabre buyers who have the fortune of greater wealth are now purchasing more expensive options such as Oyster, Swan, and Hinckley, etc. Thus, Sabre's relatively small sailboat segment left for both lower and higher product lines due to the stratification of wealth. They may have been filling a niche between the ultra-wealthy and the currently suffering upper-middle class, which is now a relatively vacant niche.

I also agree with Jackdaw that Sabre's product line seemed to be going a little stale. The quality is great for sure, but at every boat show I went to, I left thinking that Tartan seemed to have more innovation, more pizzaz, equal quality and overall better value than Sabre. I also thought Lyman Morse made a better impression. Not that I was or am in the market for those boats (although I once thought Tartan could be within striking distance - before relative economic hardship came my way).

Many boat purchasers who may have thought that a new boat purchase was a possibility, are now probably just happy to have a decent older boat to hang on to. I now I find myself in that position so I spend my money maintaining what I have.

 

[Jackdaw]

Somethings to think about.

US recreational sailing population

Sailboat sales in the USA have dried up because:

1) The number of sailors now is 1/6th of its late 80s peak
2) Most new american sailboats look and act like old ones.

During the 76-88 peak, over 12000 very very ordinary Catalina 27s and 30s were built. Most are still on the water. Unless you are willing to offer something VERY different, that is your competition for a brand new entry level boat. In Europe the Pogo 30 and Seascape 27 are sold out for the next two years. I'm heartened that Catalina is having a go with the new 275.

Scott mentioned 10% of boats in the USA are sailboats..... Try TWO PERCENT. Its such a niche now that the NMMA no longer tracks it individually.

65% of all sailors are over 45. They want an easy-to-use for two person (married couple with kids gone) crew rig. Unless you have a real bridge clearance issue, that means a fractional rig with no overlap. The masthead rig is a artifact of the old CCA rule and should have perished with the rule.

Sabre was Oldsmobile. Selling stodgy (but well built) boats to and older and older fixed group of sailors. They followed their customers to the grave. Or to a powerboat. Tartan has a chance.

 

[Barnacle Bill]

The turn of the economy has hurt the sailboat and powerboat industry a great deal, and in general, in the last few decades, the powerboat industry has always been healthier, but I have to say with the downturn, I was happier to be in the sailboat industry and NOT the powerboat industry. Things aren't like they used to be, but I have seen a turn around and boats are starting to sell a great deal better than in the past few years. Even new boats. I know J/Boats has a good business going and they are deep into production. It has been brutal for new boat sales for sure and used boats are still selling better and again, I have seen a great increase in used boat sales. As pointed out, in comparison to the 70's (and I was in the biz then too), there was not the amount of used products on the market like there is now.

 

[Barnacle Bill]

I would like to add that all those sailboat manufacturers that went under back in the 70's was because of the economy, the fuel cost rising (fiberglass is a petroleum product) and double digit interest rates. Today the interest rates remain historically low. All of those sailboats that died were great boats and designs and had little to do with their demise.

 

[redhead78]

Hey all I think we all are makin great points here, however I would take another tack, on this, shall we say the overall dynamics of the sailing community. I have taken notice of the people with boats over the years, and I have met a lot. Sailors tend to be, I don,t want to say different, travlin to a different beat?, campers, outdoors people, more willing to take on an adventure. Say a Skier, a pilot, if you follow my drift(no pun), A guy or gal that would quit his job and go to alaska, or start his own company. What I really think has changed is the world around us.. Look around, the technology has a lot to do with it, We sailors are a more simplistic group,more of a minimalist, looking to get away from all this crap....Just a couple of my observations....Red

 

[sailorhokie]

Jackdaw

That graph is pretty startling. Its nice to see some hard data. What are the other data points in red and light blue? The linear increase in interest seems pretty natural from 1952-1976. The sharp plateau seems strange. Maybe the market saturated or maybe the interest rates during that time tapered the enthusiasm. I would expect a smoother curve. The non-linear decrease starting around 1990 is almost certainly attributed to the luxury tax. Note how the decrease tapers off a bit around 1993 once the tax is repealed. I guess I am surprised sailing participation didn't rebound after its initial drop. Was the boom just a fad? Maybe the boomers were young and thriving only to have kids and get out/never go back to the sport.

Saving Sailing is a great book. Do you have a pointer to the source data for the figure you posted? I looked through my (Kindle) copy of saving sailing and didn't see the graph or the data. Likewise at US Sailing.

Josh

 

[Jackdaw]

Jackdaw

That graph is pretty startling. Its nice to see some hard data. What are the other data points in red and light blue? The linear increase in interest seems pretty natural from 1952-1976. The sharp plateau seems strange. Maybe the market saturated or maybe the interest rates during that time tapered the enthusiasm. I would expect a smoother curve. The non-linear decrease starting around 1990 is almost certainly attributed to the luxury tax. Note how the decrease tapers off a bit around 1993 once the tax is repealed. I guess I am surprised sailing participation didn't rebound after its initial drop. Was the boom just a fad? Maybe the boomers were young and thriving only to have kids and get out/never go back to the sport.

Saving Sailing is a great book. Do you have a pointer to the source data for the figure you posted? I looked through my (Kindle) copy of saving sailing and didn't see the graph or the data. Likewise at US Sailing.

Josh

Josh,

Sure. The graph came from the saving sailing web site. Nick is a friend of mine and gave me permission to use it. There was another data set on it (Olympic medals) that I removed because it was not relivent to this discussion.

http://savingsailing.com/2012/08/09/olympians-need-you-to-gosailing/


Frankly, I think a lot of the drop off was due to people treating sailing as a fad. Anyone else remember how popular tennis was as the same time? Same drop off. In most towns, 90% of the tennis courts built at that time are now basketball courts.

 

[Gunni]

So compare Jackdaw's graph of sailboat ownership with this graph of real wages adjusted for inflation through time. They both peak in 1972 and trail off. There's your middle class boat buyer - wage earners.
​

 

[JonnyQuest]

Josh,

http://savingsailing.com/2012/08/09/olympians-need-you-to-gosailing/

Great link, Jackdaw...

What a cool blog and apparently a great book too--I hadn't heard of it before. New to sailing, I wonder why the industry is declining, and in my neck of the woods it appears to be the economy. New ideas and new approaches like those in Saving Sailing are only waiting for the economy to start returning and I think dedicated sailors can do wonders to garner interest and new participation.

We are stuck in a muddy rut right now, mates. Grassroots efforts are needed to catch the wave when it begins to rise again when the economy turns. I am looking forward to it!

 

[John Nantz]

Its a competitive world

The decline of the middle class in terms of inflation-adjusted earnings has a lot to do with the fact that we live in a competitive world and there are a lot of things in play. Manufacturing and marking is globalized. Labor and manufacturing costs in many countries is less than in the USA and manufacturing efficiency in the US hasn't necessarily been keeping pace with the competition and this is evident in boat manufacturing.

About five or six years ago I went to a European boat show near Vienna, Austria, and at the Bavaria booth they had a continuous video running. Not too many people were looking at it but I sure did. What was impressive was that they were going from design, using CAD, to production and assembly, using LOTS of robotics.

Just for the fun of it, I did a quick search to see if I could find a link to a video but came across their web page which shows some of the process: http://www.bavaria-yachtbau.com/en/shipyard/shipyard/production-process/assembly-lines.html

All the fiberglass mat is cut by robots. Ditto the cabinetry. The web page shows robotic arms cutting out holes for the ports in the hull. Carbon fiber or Kevlar in the hull? Bavaria had that way back then.

And Bavaria Yachts isn't alone doing this. Sure, Catalina and Hunter do this too, at least to some extent, but the Bavaria video, even back then, was really impressive.

Why did Saber cut back or stop producing sailboats? Bang for the buck its hard to compete against the major manufacturers now and Saber didn't keep up.

The world population has been increasing at an exponential rate. With more people "looking for a job" in an increasingly crowded world, the value of labor will decline. American workers who compete on a world-wide basis have to compete against all those billions of people who are willing to do the same work for much less, so guess who gets the job?

Local Seattle/Everett news:
Boeing is looking to relocate their assembly lines to somewhere with friendlier and cheaper labor. Many local machinists want to have a march this Wednesday to show the union leadership that they want to vote again on the contract they just got through voting down. But why would they want to do that?

Boeing has put out a RFP to any interested areas who would like to have an aircraft manufacturing facility in their area. Since there has been so many states interested in having Boeing relocate to their area it seems a number of Machinists are having second thoughts. This is getting interesting. Nothing like a little competition.

 

[Solstice]

Josh,

Sure. The graph came from the saving sailing web site. Nick is a friend of mine and gave me permission to use it. There was another data set on it (Olympic medals) that I removed because it was not relivent to this discussion.

http://savingsailing.com/2012/08/09/olympians-need-you-to-gosailing/


Frankly, I think a lot of the drop off was due to people treating sailing as a fad. Anyone else remember how popular tennis was as the same time? Same drop off. In most towns, 90% of the tennis courts built at that time are now basketball courts.

In Sabre's case (and J Boats and Hinckley) the real issue is the sailing demographics. MS's original title and this graph more accurately represents the situation for these *high end* boat builders. The real economics involved is staying in business; and they found a way by shifting from building high end sailboats to building high end motor boats.
Sabre and the others never really competed with C,B,H etc, at least as far as price point. Consider that Sabre had 3 orders for sailboats in the past five years and now they are at full capacity running in two facilities with backorders. They couldn't sell $700K sailboats, but can't make enough $1-2MM motor boats.
Someone mentioned J Boats doing well, and they are--because there MJM power boat arm is outselling their sailboats 6:1 and they are also tooling for a 50 footer because the demand is there. I don't know what the numbers are for Hinckley, but I would bet there power boat sales outnumber their sailboats (new) by a similar ratio.
I'm not suggesting that the economy doesn't have some impact in the overall boating industry, but I have a hard time seeing how it relates to high end boat builders shifting from expensive sailboats to even more expensive motor boats.
I think it's great that these companies have found a way to survive and keep those skilled craftsmen employed and the marine industry viable even though I wish it were in the realm of sailboats.
Some have suggested that the AC is the 'canary'--one american sailor...As we all know, there are inexpensive ways to get on the water if the desire is there and hopefully there will be a revival of young sailors.....

 

[Jackdaw]

Solstice,

You make some great points. Its clear as you point out the Sabre is NOT failing as a business, they are going to where the money is. And it was NOT in classic sailboats. Successful builders today (J, Beni, Seascape, Bavaria, etc) are building new designs that cater to changing face of sailing, with boats like the J70, J111, Sense, Vision, Seascape27. That was never going to be a place Sabre could go.

I'm REALLY interested in how Hinckley does with their new Bermuda 50. It looks like it could be a Beneteau First 50. Its getting shredded by the so-called Hinckley faithful, but that group is getting older and older. I wish them well with it.

 

[FB111A]

I had heard that Hinckley was building fewer than one sailboat a year. They produce lots of million dollar power boats. Like PSC they try to keep busy refitting some of their older boats. Perhaps the "Bene" of the Hinckley 50 will be that it's rudder won't fall off after 5 or 10 years.

 

[Jackdaw]

Perhaps the "Bene" of the Hinckley 50 will be that it's rudder won't fall off after 5 or 10 years.

Way to stay classy, FB111A.

 

[sailorhokie]

So I think we've beat the potential aspects and drivers of the downturn to death. Maybe turning the discussion towards solutions or steps forward would be useful.

So the big questions: What can be done to increase accessibility, interest, and participation in sailing?

1. Increasing access to affordable sailing through non-profits, rentals, timeshare/fractional ownership

2. Innovation in manufacturing to drive down cost

3. Restoration/value-add of the existing sailboat inventory to create a pool of low-cost/high-quality used entry boat options

4. Focus on youth access and participation. Summer camps, school partnerships, family days, open-sailing (read: free/low-cost) family days out

Thoughts?

Josh

 

[Gunni]

Josh; Add to that list the Maryland approach - no property taxes on boats. And new this year a $15,000 cap on the one-time sales tax.

You guys over in Virginia hear that? Maryland loves boaters! It will cost you $5 / year to slip your Documented boat in Maryland.