Invest 92L and the rest

JamesG161

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Feb 14, 2014
7,464
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
The most worrisome tropical wave this season is entering the warm West African Atlantic. Long Range steering current's forecast show a fast moving direct Shot at the Caribbean. The bit of hope is that this may not be a Big storm. The forecast path follows 4 previous storms that removed energy from the Atlantic. Arrival time would be late next week. Hurricane preparation now is suggested before your local stores have run on key items.
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TD 9 (Former Invest 99L) is the storm that won't die.:doh: It is curving back to the Atlantic like I suggested it would last week, but a bit further North.
The Bad News....
The storm is picking up Gulf energy as it slows to turn (5 mph versus 15). This will dump a lot of rain on North Central FL.
Remember what happened to Baton Rouge/Denham Springs?
http://forums.sailboatowners.com/index.php?threads/flooding-in-louisiana-and-more.180787/

This slow moving storm appears to be aimed along the East Coast, which will "Bucket Brigade" water from the HOT Atlantic to Coastal USA. Expect large rain falls and possible coastal flooding if the storm slows. The Carolinas appear to be the worse the rain fall target.
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Look out Hawaii
More rain from a tropical wave at TX-LA border.

Jim...
 
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JamesG161

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Feb 14, 2014
7,464
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
The main reason I do this kind of post is to help prepare, calm my friends and perhaps take some mystery out of Storm formation and movements.

Now that all of the storms have made the NEWS, I won't do a repetitive update.
Tropical Storm Hermine (former Tropical Depression 9 and Invest 99L)
Hermine is pronounced "Her My Knee" slowed to make her turn and strengthened.

Carolinas here comes the Rain.

Jim...

PS: The reason I was able to predict this turn almost a week ago is simple to understand. The storm follows the path of least resistance. Hermine ( feminine form of Herman) is following LOW Pressure valley between to HIGH pressure waves that move West to East. Calculate the HIGH waves progression rate relative to the storm.