Lot's of factors to consider. How cold and for how long before the cat's water on the patio freezes solid enough to do damage? Low of 25 and the cat's water may have a skim of ice, but not frozen solid.
It also depends on lake water quality and temperature. Recall pure clean deionized water freezes at 32...is sealeave a factor too? The water in Mark Twain Lake is not pure clean or dionized. I think a water quality engineer suggested it froze around 28 degrees.
Also remember the engine is inclosed in a department and located next to the hull which is underwater about 18"-24". The engine would have to cool to below 28 degrees before the water in the heat exchanger would freeze. If the water temperature is 40 degrees, it is going to help protect the engine by helping keep the engine above freezing. The engineers out there can probably calcuate the thermal conductivity and the other variables. My simple mind says that if it's 20 degrees outside and 40 degrees under the hull, then it will take quite a while for the engine to reach the average of the 2 or 30 degrees. Of course, the starting temperature will also affect the outcome.
Now a real time example from Missouri. We sailed this weekend dewinterizing only the engine. It's 70 and cloudy today. Low tonight is to be 23. I'm not worried. High tomorrow is 41 and clear. Low tomorrow night is 18...I'm worried but not too worried. High on Thursday in 39 with a low of 23 Thursday night. High in 50s on Friday. I should be ok.
If the forcast was for 23 tonight and high tomorrow in the low 20's the down to 18 tomorrow night, I'd be on my way to the boat right now.
I have followed this pattern since we bought Dragonfly in 2003 and have not had a problem.
that's my 2 cents worth! Others may have more experience and other thougths.
Mark