+1 on the adhesion issue. I do not think this is serious.
I had a similar issue this spring with bottom paint adhesion. It turned out to be a few areas I did some epoxy fairing and neglected to properly abrade the surface a bit (maybe with just a little 80 grit hand sanding).
I use a more traditional ablative bottom paint, not VC-17. That said, I personally would:
1. Scrape off the flakes.
2. Check what is underneath the area--probably a mix of weird Catalina fairing putty and lead.
3. Perhaps abrade what is underneath with 80 grit.
4. Bottom paint, splash, sail away to a non-infected location
I don't think you have to do much fairing from your photos, but if you do and/or for those with more significant keel issues, then read on. . . .
My 1982 C30 keel looked rough two years ago during the survey.
I heard horror stories about Catalina smiles and needing to redo hull to keel joints, etc.
But my surveyor said it was just a fairing issue and maybe a little bit of an easy-to-fix smile.
What I have learned from messing with my keel is this:
- Catalina used a TON of some kind of fairing putty on keels in the early 80s (don't know for how long they continued to do so).
- My issues ended up being a little below the joint on my keel. The fairing material/putty had begun spalling and chipping out in kind of scary sized chunks down to the lead below. I wondered if the lead was chipping out.
- My repair: sand, chip, fairly aggressively grind out all loose material. Fill with West System--thickening with the EASY TO SAND FILLERS (NOT, repeat NOT silica). The easier to sand fillers are not a water barrier, but a water barrier is not needed for lead. And these fillers are WAY easier to sand than the silica stuff.
Depending on the actual location on the keel, those faired areas can take a lot of grinding before you hurt the keel. Go easy with it until you get a feel for how your grinder and keel interact. I think it is pretty obvious when you get to to lead--if you are going easy you will make the lead shiny before you start to remove material. Stop here. Definitely wash the amine blush from the epoxy and abrade a little prior to painting.
Additionally, I had a hairline gap at the hull to keel joint. It was uniform and I couldn't decide whether it was simply the joint or the beginnings of a smile. I decided it was simply the joint since a smile usually appears at one end of the keel. Bottom paint basically filled the gap so it is not much of a gap. Standard, well documented repair for a smile involves West System G-flex.
Good luck. My gut says you really do not have much of a problem.