WEATHER ALERT> PACIFICNW

[jssailem]

The country is experiencing winter weather from the Arctic storm bringing wind rain and snow to many parts of the country along with cold air.

Out here in the west we are about to get a series of events as a result of the La Niña conditions that have triggered storms up from the South Pacific and found their way in to the Japanese currents that rotate through the North Pacific.

Rufus has announced the coming storm in this Friday's report.

Here is what it looks like in Windy over the next several days. I am looking at the 600hPa level about 4200 m. This level shows the steering currents pushing the storms. The bottom level of the Jet stream. The stream, normally, would be further north. Instead the jet stream is pushing warm moist air across the Pacific. Sometimes called a Pineapple Express. The Low Cells are large and extremely low bringing lots of wind and rain.




Time to batten down the hatches. Get some food in the house. Prepare for the coming wind and rain storm.
Here is Rufus's report:

Friday December 23​

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Ice Rinks, Snow Fields, Downed Trees - geez, what a winter event that has unfolded across the entire PNW and, indeed, the entire Nation. Word is that over 12,500 flights are cancelled nationally, right when folks want to be with family & friends. We’d like to be holiday-brief this morning, but there is another potentially serious wx episode about to strike the PNW this coming week. Mug up, Patron.​

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Let’s dwell on the future. Christmas Eve & Day will be WET around the PNW, with sub-tropical moisture setting off moderate-to-heavy rain first over NW WA & BC on Saturday, spreading south as the holiday period is underway. Warm rain will mitigate the ice/snow issues at the surface, while compounding potential flood issues with rapid snow/ice melt combined with inches water from the sky. Rain will let up briefly later on Sunday, but return Monday, particularly over OR and northern CA.​

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Monday night into Tuesday, Dec 26,27. HEAVY RAIN for much of western OR & northern CA, including the Bay Area. A couple inches are possible in the Willamette Valley, more over the slopes of the coast & Cascade ranges. Here’s the kicker: models are suggesting a DANGEROUS WIND EVENT is possible early Tue. A strong storm, currently over northern Japan, will race across the Pacific during Christmas weekend before moving “inside the 130” west of OR or WA (or maybe Vancouver Island).​

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For Patrons that are relatively new to our program, whenever a Pacific storm Low pressure center deepens and crosses the 130th meridian west line of longitude, residents of the OR, WA or both, may experience very powerful WIND STORMS. Our big wind events have barometric center pressures below 975 as a storm moves east across the 130W and turns north along the coast, coming onshore around south of Vancouver Island. Some of the current model projections indicate a center pressure of 975-977 as the Tue storm makes landfall anywhere from Astoria to southern Vancouver Island. There are other projections that bring said storm onshore somewhere mid-to-north Vancouver Is., and with a higher center pressure, which would make wind a lower concern for OR / WA.​

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For now, we will issue a YELLOW ALERT for the possibility of strong WINDS Tuesday morning, Dec 27, esp for the OR & WA coasts, and inland west of the Cascades. Gusts 45-60 mph in western valley locations are possible. Coastal winds would be hurricane-strength, if the verifies. Saturated soils will contribute to potential tree fall, as well as falling limbs weakened by the current ice storm. We’ll update this on Monday Dec 26.​

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After Tuesday’s heavy rain & wind issues, the next storm could arrive by Friday Dec 30. This one will be very WET, as well. A big New Year’s Day storm is tracking south to CA on the latest model runs.​

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Merry Christmas, Patron. ​

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-Rufus​

 

[JamesG161]

Never forget Santa's Ride on Christmas Morning.

Looks like @jssailem was on Santa's Naughty list this year

Good Boy
Jim...

 

[Tally Ho]

Here in the Midwest, we dropped 40F in 24 hours. -2F as I write this at 4:25 pm. Winds are howling and snow is swirling (but we didn’t get the 20“ they were predicting earlier in the week).

Power went out around 2:00 AM last night. Luckily I replaced the battery in the 20KW generator Monday night in prep for this “snowmageddon”.

Even colder in Montana where my mom and sister reside.

Can’t wait for spring!

Greg

 

[kappykaplan]

Can’t wait for spring!

Didn't you tell us you were going to Maui in January?

 

[shemandr]

This cold snap may end up being an in vivo test of winterization protocols. Or maybe a few days of super cold aren't long enough to learn anything. But I hope the forum members will honestly share their experiences so that we will learn what worked and more importantly what didn't.

 

[Stu Jackson]

But I hope the forum members will honestly share their experiences so that we will learn what worked and more importantly what didn't.

Sometimes, like in boating, you just have to live with what ya got! We have a big water storage tank because we have well water. The tank is outside. If it freezes for more than three days, the incoming water quits, so the water storage gets depleted by use, and the low water alarm (in our case a very prominent light in our downstairs laundry room and visible outside, too) turns on, warning us to conserve every last drop. It takes at least a day or two of above freezing temps to loosen things up and refill the tank.
We've had our four or five days of frigid and the warning light remains on since yesterday but it's inching above freezing now and for the next few days it'll be over 7C even at night.
Oh, the joys of country living.
This all goes along with our "when it snows the power goes out" routines - we had over 30 cm on Tuesday.

 

[Tally Ho]

Didn't you tell us you were going to Maui in January?

Yes, but no sailing in Maui…just whale watch cruises on big power catamarans with the Pacific Whale Foundation.

Aloha!

Greg

 

[jssailem]

As offered on Friday... A storm is brewing and promises to come ashore somewhere between Long Beach WA and Vancouver Island.

Rufus provides details in his Get a mug of something way. You might want to spike your mug..

Monday December 26​

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A stormy week ahead, with the strongest wind storm in quite some time arriving overnight tonight through Tue. Preparation is key to minimizing impact. Post-Christmas week promises to be quite active in regards to weather. Currently, a powerful storm is brewing to the west. Mug ready?​

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Sip. Our big wind storms typically approach the OR/WA coast from the southwest, turning northward ’inside the 130W”, as we wrote last week, before making landfall somewhere over OR, WA or southern Vancouver Island. The center barometric pressure of the big wind storms ranges from 956 mb (Columbus Day Storm, Oct 12, 1962) to around 972 mb. Obviously, there are other atmospheric attributes that must be met, but the basic “alert” to a strong wind potential is the depth of the Low and where it makes landfall; just like a hurricane.​

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Our current threat is modeled to deepen to around 967 mb before slowly ’filling in’ to 970-973 mb as it lands roughly between Long Beach WA and southern Vancouver Is. The central Low is oblong shaped, rather than circular - kind of a double Low - which is our protection, in a manner of speaking, for it helps to spread out storm energy & weaken impact a bit. The Low will is modeled to become more circular & tighten in shape before landfall, with a powerful WIND FIELD. Heed Nat’l Wx Service watches and warnings, as this storm carries the potential to have economic impact regionally, esp following the heavy rains and ice storm.​

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We forecast OR coast winds gusting 80-95 mph; Willamette Valley gusts could exceed 55-60 mph; western WA is not out of the woods on this, but the Low may position itself to present a weaker wind field over the Puget Sound (yet strong enough winds to cause power-issues). Expect WINDS to pick-up after midnight tonight and bluster through much of Tue. Strongest gusts may arrive before daylight Tue. POWER OUTAGES are quite likely, so if you are rural and on a well system, it might be prudent to fill the bathtub for water to flush toilets, so as not to waste potable water.​

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Moderate-to-heavy rain is also part of this storm pattern, with over an inch of rain possible in the Willamette Valley from this system; more in the coast & Cascades ranges. Flood prone areas need to be monitored closely.​

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The next wet system is due to arrive sometime Wed night, followed by another very WINDY STORM overnight Thu into Fri (mostly an OR event); this one will not be as strong as the Tue event. As New Year’s weekend gets underway, a New Year’s Eve storm will barrel into north/central CA.​

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The PNW will catch a break from all the rain & wind on both Sat & Sunday, New Year’s Day. RAIN returns to start the first work & school week of 2023. Keep the rain gear handy.​

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Second Cup: watch & tap your home barometer often! The faster the pressure falls, along with how fast it rises following front passage, is a clue to wind strength. A deep, narrow “V” shape pattern indicate a strong wind field possible. The Portland Nat’l Wx Service team mentions the possibility for ’STING JET’ wind gusts to slap the western OR after the windy front passes (search for Sting Jet for details; it is fascinating wx geek stuff).​

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“We can always live on less when we have more to live for."​

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-Rufus​

 

[jssailem]

Here are some graphics from Windy.

This first one is the storm that is brewing off the coast.

This second one is looking at the wind speed over Seattle at 2000 ft above the surface. It shows the effect of the Sting Jet as it wraps around the Olympic Peninsula .

There is going to be some heavy weather in the Juan D'Fuca