TS Hermine - heads up Jersey - Long Island

[Gunni]

The forecast for the course and strength of TS Hermine are uncertain, but two things seem certain, 1) the storm will strengthen over the warm waters of the mid-Atlantic, and 2) the storm is predicted to hook back at you folks in the north NJ to LI area. This weekend will likely be your last opportunity to make preparation as the storm approaches. Let's hope it peters out, but don't bet on it.

 

[Chris Patterson]

For what it's worth, here in Southport it was a non event. For the exception of bucket loads of rain, I've sailed in worse weather..

 

[Gunni]

Yes, your area got the weakened tropical storm that had dragged across low country. Hermine is now headed into a warm sea. It looks like it will slow down, and pick up strength. There is a trough pushing up the eastern seaboard which has the potential to shoulder the storm seaward. Let's hope so. At this point the storm looks to be erratic and potentially a stalled hurricane south of LI by Monday night. Weird storm.

 

[shemandr]

I pulled my runabout out this AM. The sun has come out here and it's pretty nice. NE wind maybe 12 knots. I don't feel silly yet. There are still predictions of strong, maybe not tropical storm force but strong, winds for Sunday, Monday and maybe beyond. I learned years ago that even a twenty knot wind over several days can heap a bunch of water up onshore i.e. my dock.
We have a race tomorrow. Should be interesting. My feeling is that at my age and condition I'm not interested in fighting a boat for 3 hours for "Fun." It will be on a J109, jib and main division. Three men on a boat and 2 spouses who I'm pretty certain will jump ship by 10am - before the start. On the other hand it could be 'citing. At least I won't be worrying about my boat.

 

[JamesG161]

headed into a warm sea.

That water is 3+ F° higher that average, actually hotter than the Caribbean now. Why it became a Hurricane is that it STALLED as she turned from West to NEast in the Gulf. Lets hope it doesn't just SIT there and gain strength.
It is at the North end of a HIGH pressure front and could actually move South behind that passing front.
Jim...

 

[shemandr]

Race cancelled. I'm feeling relieved. Clinging to a over-canvased sailboat for hours to see who crosses an imaginary line first isn't my choice for tomorrow. Seriously, there was a race years ago where a race was held in the wake of a TS. On one boat, with an experienced crew, who had sailed together a lot, a man was killed by the boom. Macho is macho but no one has fun when someone is seriously hurt. It isn't war. It's just a way to have fun.

 

[Gunni]

A massive wind field on this one, looks like LI to the cape still has a 50% chance of 40kt winds. That is not a fun day of sailing.

 

[NYSail]

Was sitting at dock yesterday doing projects during a fabulous day.... Decided to stay on our mooring. A bit windy here in mt. Sinai harbor tonight (this morning)...... But nicer than the slip! Keep east hermine!

 

[Gunni]

Weird storm...just sits out there off LI like a trapped bear.