trying to understand weather forecast

Richard19068 · Dec 19, 2014

newsailor72 said:
planning on motor sailing to catalina island from long beach this Sun morning, coming back Mon. Checked noaa marine weather, it says "high surf advisory",
>>>
A LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL REACH THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING...WITH SURF
BUILDING RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT. THE SURF IS EXPECTED TO PEAK ON
SATURDAY...WHEN 15 TO 20 FOOT BREAKERS WILL BE LIKELY ON
NORTHWEST FACING BEACHES.
>>>

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClic...1=33.7669&textField2=-118.188&e=0#.VJTgb8AADU

does this affect me or only surfers at the beach? (as a sailor, I only need to be concerned with wind and swell, right?)

checked swellinfo.com for Sun, http://www.swellinfo.com/surf-forecast/los-angeles-california-south. swell is "W 1.9 ft @ 16 sec", seems pretty doable, right? doesn't seem to be inline with the noaa advisory.

>>>
SURF
Waist high W long period swell in the morning with occasional stomach high sets. This drops a bit in the afternoon.
CONDITIONS

Clean in the morning with E winds less than 5mph. Semi glassy/semi bumpy conditions for the afternoon with the winds shifting to the SW.
>>>

Check this site

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-118.34541&lat=33.55591

Calling for 4-5 Sunday and Monday which is a bit high but doable depending on the wind and swell period. Swells from storms like this are usually long period which makes them easier to handle but if it gets windy can still be a problem. 16 seconds as called for Saturday is pretty good. 8-10 seconds would be a lot less comfortable. I suggest you keep an eye on it and see how it shapes up closer to Sunday

Also check out the actual buoy observations here http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=46222 and you can compare the forecast to the actual observations.

Certainly depends on the size of your boat and your experience. Be safe!

caguy · Dec 19, 2014

We went out last Sunday when there was a high surf advisory at the beaches. There was a Pacific storm with swells from 4 to 6 feet coming out of the West.
I was a little apprehensive about going out but because there were no winds waves to speak ofI so I wasn't too worried. It turned out to be a beautiful day winter winds about 6 knots hand about a four foot swell but 13 second interval.
It actually turned out to be a kind of glassy leisurely sail.
if there isn't a swell coming from the south and interfering with one coming from the west it can make for a pretty pleasant day. However when you have both swells interfering with each other it can sometimes feel like a washing machine. Even on small craft warning days I would usually go out and take a peek, some of those days have been the best sailing days ever.
It was such a clear day at Catalina look really close and we commented what a great sail it would be to go there.

Kestle · Dec 20, 2014

Great photos! I wish I had the free time then. We are going out of San Pedro on Weds, weather permitting.

Jeff

trying to understand weather forecast

newsailor72

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Richard19068

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caguy

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Kestle

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