There is research
I'm traveling, so I don't have any of the links, but there are great, technically competent articles on the web, backed up by excellent research. Key conclusions discused and backed up on this site (check the archives) include:Grounding the mast to the keel, or to at least one square foot of copper in contact with the water, does protect the boat from some of the effects of being hit. It significantly reduces the probability of side forks that can take the strike through the hull below the water line, and sink the boat fast. The research does indicate that the chances of a grounded mast being struck are slightly higher.Bonding metal through-hulls to a ground can prevent them from being blown out of the boat by a strike - again, causing serious danger of sinking.Paint on a lead or steel keel does not seriously reduce its grounding capacity. A fiberglass layer will.All of this works better in salt water than in fresh, presumably because the below water electrode connects more effectively with water with a high ion (salt) content.You are likely to lose your electronics to any strike, although there are protective elements you can put in your antenna line.The mast, shrouds, aluminum toerails, grounding wire and keel do offer a substantial cone of safety to crew in the cockpit or cabin, away from the mast or other conducting elements (for instance wheel steering.)DavidLAdy Lillie