- Oct 22, 2014
- 23,577
We at the Weather and Forecasting Forum have a warm affection for the sun. We know monitoring it will help us understand and forecast weather events.
This past year has been a bit of an outlier. Fewer Atlantic storms have impacted our eastern coastline, and the ENSO currents in the Pacific have been in a Neutral state.
The solar cycle has yet to be determined as exhibiting Correlation or Causation factors in determining our weather patterns.
We know that there have been periods when sunspot activity exhibits correlation. The Maunder Minimum (1645–1715), a period of low sunspot activity, coincided with the Little Ice Age, a cooler period in Europe and North America. Correlations are often weak and inconsistent across time periods.
Regarding Causality, the Sun's energy output slightly fluctuates over a solar cycle, which can affect the Earth's energy budget. The Svensmark hypothesis suggests that during low solar activity, weaker solar magnetic fields allow more galactic cosmic rays to reach Earth, potentially increasing cloud formation and cooling the planet. This is a proposed causal mechanism, but it remains controversial.
It appears we are approaching the end of the cycle. Here is the latest report and an interesting image.
From the STCE Newsletter:
This past year has been a bit of an outlier. Fewer Atlantic storms have impacted our eastern coastline, and the ENSO currents in the Pacific have been in a Neutral state.
The solar cycle has yet to be determined as exhibiting Correlation or Causation factors in determining our weather patterns.
We know that there have been periods when sunspot activity exhibits correlation. The Maunder Minimum (1645–1715), a period of low sunspot activity, coincided with the Little Ice Age, a cooler period in Europe and North America. Correlations are often weak and inconsistent across time periods.
Regarding Causality, the Sun's energy output slightly fluctuates over a solar cycle, which can affect the Earth's energy budget. The Svensmark hypothesis suggests that during low solar activity, weaker solar magnetic fields allow more galactic cosmic rays to reach Earth, potentially increasing cloud formation and cooling the planet. This is a proposed causal mechanism, but it remains controversial.
It appears we are approaching the end of the cycle. Here is the latest report and an interesting image.
From the STCE Newsletter:
The STCE's SC25 Tracking page (SC25 Tracking | STCE ) has been updated to reflect the latest evolution of some critical space weather parameters for the ongoing solar cycle 25 (SC25). It covers various aspects of space weather, from sunspot numbers over geomagnetic indices to cosmic rays. The multiple graphs allow for a comparison with previous solar cycles at similar stages in their evolution.
The imagery underneath shows a recent prominence eruption from 30 September, taken by the GOES/SUVI instrument (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-solar-ultraviolet-imager-suvi ). The associated coronal mass ejection was not directed to Earth.
Jim and John
Watching with amazement.
