Simple answers to complex problems....
Let me make a few obvious comments, as someone who spends his professional life studying the dynamics and stability of physical systems. First, the motion of any craft in a seaway and extreme wind conditions constitutes a very complex, nonlinear dynamic system, for which there is probably no clean mathematical solution. Even to capture all of the real-world dynamics and disturbances in a set of differential equations would be a monumental task. That said, we can look for some "common sense" statements that from simplified "flat water" physics:1) A boat acts as a pendulum. If the center of mass (cg) is below the instantaneous center of rotation, gravity will generate a righting moment, and it will return to an upright position. On the other hand if the cg is above the center of rotation it becomes an unstable system (nonlinear) and the boat will continue the capsize after any initial displacement from vertical. Thus, it makes no sense to suggest that putting ballast at the top of the mast may somehow improve stabiliy - it will only decrease the static righting moment.2) The instantaneous center of rotation is not a fixed point in the boat, it moves (dictated by the hull shape) with the angle of heel, and will not always lie on the centerline. Thats why boats exhibit an "ultimate" or critical capsize angle, and are stable upside down.3) I would differentiate between a knockdown and a true capsize. The knockdown can often be attributed to many external factors and boat handling, but the real question is - will the boat recover after a knockdown? This is where the ultimate stability angle becomes important.Are we talking about knockdown resistance or capsize stability with the CSF?4) Once the sails/rig are in the water, the dynamics change radically because of the extra drag opposing any righting moment.5) Marks' argument about increasing the moment of inertia about the roll axis in fact argues for deep keels with the mass concentrated at the bottom (I = mr^2) - not high up where it will decrease the righting moment (mgrsin(theta)). But this is only part of the story. We also have to consider the roll resisting drag of the keel, hull, and rig (which is why the ride is often more comfortable while motorsailing with the sails up). Without such drag, the interchange of potential and kinetic energy will form a resonant condition that could cause violent roll motion in a seaway, leading to capsize.5) There are many more factors that decide stability. My purpose here is only to point out the complexity of the issue.One thing that I have learned over the years is to avoid simple "intuitive" answers that do not take all of the relevant physics into account. To assign a confidence level in a boat by creating a highly (over) simplified, and possibly erroneous, model does a gross disservice to the sailing community. To promote the thinking that all boats with a CSF < 2 are suitable for offshore work is foolish, and might well lead to over confidence (or over anxiety). Much better to look at the strength and construction detail of you boat with an eye to recovery from a knockdown, and make a critical assessment of your skills before venturing offshore. Consider a lightweight catamaran, with a large beam. Its CSF will be very large. It will also be initially very stable. But if it does turn-turtle it is in big trouble. What is the more important consideration in deciding to take our catamaran offshore? There are of course other measures of capsize resistance. I believe that a graph of righting moment at all angles of heel, together with a plot of the transient recovery from a known angle, would be a much better indicator of capsize resistance.Forget the whole thing... let's go sailing! (Damn, I forgot - it's winter)Derek