Have plans to go sailing on Saturday. The marine forecast for that day is below. I am concerned about going out with this weather forecast and can't decide whether I am being prudent or overly careful. I have a 29' Ericson so pretty stable. SAT... S WINDS 25 TO 30 KT...BECOMING W 20 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM. If faced with this forecast would others still go or put off for some less "extreme" weather?
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*yks "Facing the Teeth of the Tiger"
That is a statement that I usually say when I think about going out into foul weather. It quickly reminds me that staying in is the prudent thing to do. I never venture into the Teeth of the Tiger, if I can help it. You can always stay at the dock and try to stay warm and dry there rather than doing so on a bouncing sea. Wait until the next day. It may improve. It looks like we're scrapping our weekend also. Now our season ends.
That is a statement that I usually say when I think about going out into foul weather. It quickly reminds me that staying in is the prudent thing to do. I never venture into the Teeth of the Tiger, if I can help it. You can always stay at the dock and try to stay warm and dry there rather than doing so on a bouncing sea. Wait until the next day. It may improve. It looks like we're scrapping our weekend also. Now our season ends.
NO WAY!
Although I sail in the Chesapeake Bay, I would not leave the protection of my slip to go out in this. However, if I was returning to my slip, I would motor back or stay where I am. I would be afraid of breaking things.
Although I sail in the Chesapeake Bay, I would not leave the protection of my slip to go out in this. However, if I was returning to my slip, I would motor back or stay where I am. I would be afraid of breaking things.
Trust your good instincts
1. The longer you sail, the MORE LIKELY it becomes that you be CAUGHT out in bad weather. It’s a matter of statistics catching up with you. 2. The longer you sail, the LESS LIKELY it becomes that you will SET OUT in bad weather. It’s a matter of experience insuring you against impetuous decisions. ~ Trust your good instincts on this one.
1. The longer you sail, the MORE LIKELY it becomes that you be CAUGHT out in bad weather. It’s a matter of statistics catching up with you. 2. The longer you sail, the LESS LIKELY it becomes that you will SET OUT in bad weather. It’s a matter of experience insuring you against impetuous decisions. ~ Trust your good instincts on this one.
No, not me.
I sailed a 46' boat that did very well in 8 foot conditions, with four other people who were at various levels of testing for coastal passage making. Even with the same crew, a 29' boat in 8-12 foot seas would be out of the question. Dan
I sailed a 46' boat that did very well in 8 foot conditions, with four other people who were at various levels of testing for coastal passage making. Even with the same crew, a 29' boat in 8-12 foot seas would be out of the question. Dan
Great forecast ;D
That kind of forecast used to get me racing down to Barnegat Bay for windsurfing. Blasting across the bay or jumping over at Seaside Park to surf the south wind swells on the ocean side was what I used to live for a few years back. I could never get past the shore break from the nor'easters, though, so south wind was the bomb! In a sailboat ... those 8' to 12' seas would turn me green, I bet! I admire you, Tim, for asking the question. I would want to know but would probably not ask for advise! I haven't been out on my sailboards for a couple of years. You just got me inspired! We were going to sail, and conditions on our lake certainly won't be extreme, but if it is going to rain, I think I might adopt a new plan. A little rain does nothing to detract from windsurfing in 20 to 25 knots!
That kind of forecast used to get me racing down to Barnegat Bay for windsurfing. Blasting across the bay or jumping over at Seaside Park to surf the south wind swells on the ocean side was what I used to live for a few years back. I could never get past the shore break from the nor'easters, though, so south wind was the bomb! In a sailboat ... those 8' to 12' seas would turn me green, I bet! I admire you, Tim, for asking the question. I would want to know but would probably not ask for advise! I haven't been out on my sailboards for a couple of years. You just got me inspired! We were going to sail, and conditions on our lake certainly won't be extreme, but if it is going to rain, I think I might adopt a new plan. A little rain does nothing to detract from windsurfing in 20 to 25 knots!
Not a good idea
I live murphy's law, so look at the forecast worse case- 30 Knot wind with 12 foot swells. You'll be bouncing around like a pinball, and the fog? Here's fog 1-3nm visibility in 2 foot seas, with a broken knot meter. I couldn't even use the head sail because I was afraid of a collision. Now add a wave twice the size of you, on solid ground that's scary on a boat it's worse.
I live murphy's law, so look at the forecast worse case- 30 Knot wind with 12 foot swells. You'll be bouncing around like a pinball, and the fog? Here's fog 1-3nm visibility in 2 foot seas, with a broken knot meter. I couldn't even use the head sail because I was afraid of a collision. Now add a wave twice the size of you, on solid ground that's scary on a boat it's worse.
Thanks!
Thanks everyone, you have convinced me that going with my gut fear of these conditions were correct and to go with "discretion is the better part of valor". Thanks again. I have to say that this is absolutely one of the most valuable sites I have ever found. Where else but here can you post a question and have so many knowledgeable and rapid responses. I am so glad I have found wonderful this sailing community.
Thanks everyone, you have convinced me that going with my gut fear of these conditions were correct and to go with "discretion is the better part of valor". Thanks again. I have to say that this is absolutely one of the most valuable sites I have ever found. Where else but here can you post a question and have so many knowledgeable and rapid responses. I am so glad I have found wonderful this sailing community.
Wait
How can you decide until Saturday? Unless forecasts on the ocean waters are a lot more accurate that Great Lakes forecasts, there's a chance that none of it will come true. There's also a chance it could be worse.
How can you decide until Saturday? Unless forecasts on the ocean waters are a lot more accurate that Great Lakes forecasts, there's a chance that none of it will come true. There's also a chance it could be worse.
Paul is right.
That is still 2 days away. Do you really trust what they tell you? The nightly TV weather forecaster is usually wrong for anything a fews days out. Even for the next day's weather, I can guess by looking out the window, and my accuracy rate isn't much worse. Why don't you wait until Friday night, or Sat morning, then decide. Or are you really a long ways away from your boat? Of course, you could just go out for a real quick sail even if it is blowing like stink, and learn where your threshold is, and how unhappy you will be. ;d But be ready to duck back in though.
That is still 2 days away. Do you really trust what they tell you? The nightly TV weather forecaster is usually wrong for anything a fews days out. Even for the next day's weather, I can guess by looking out the window, and my accuracy rate isn't much worse. Why don't you wait until Friday night, or Sat morning, then decide. Or are you really a long ways away from your boat? Of course, you could just go out for a real quick sail even if it is blowing like stink, and learn where your threshold is, and how unhappy you will be. ;d But be ready to duck back in though.
That word FOG
gets me everytime. Have been caught in it. Would never venture out with the possibility of it. Radar or not. Stay at the dock, warm, dry, some company and good libations. Sunday is another day.
gets me everytime. Have been caught in it. Would never venture out with the possibility of it. Radar or not. Stay at the dock, warm, dry, some company and good libations. Sunday is another day.
Fog can be a scary thing!
I just finished sailing my 1992 H28 from Boothbay, ME to Newburyport, MA. Ran into DENSE fog (less than 100 yards visibility) going into Isles of Shoals and again as I entered the Merrimack River. Have an autopilot hooked up to a GPS chartplotter and still had the willies! As I made each approach, I could hear the waves crashing on the rocks -- even though I "knew" I was over a 1/2 mile away, it was still a sobering experience! Unless you are very experienced(expert at following a compass course) you can easily drift off course since there aren't any reference points. BTW, good picture of 1-3nm visibility (I'm having flashbacks!).
I just finished sailing my 1992 H28 from Boothbay, ME to Newburyport, MA. Ran into DENSE fog (less than 100 yards visibility) going into Isles of Shoals and again as I entered the Merrimack River. Have an autopilot hooked up to a GPS chartplotter and still had the willies! As I made each approach, I could hear the waves crashing on the rocks -- even though I "knew" I was over a 1/2 mile away, it was still a sobering experience! Unless you are very experienced(expert at following a compass course) you can easily drift off course since there aren't any reference points. BTW, good picture of 1-3nm visibility (I'm having flashbacks!).
In a fog...
I recently got caught in a fog on weekend cruise on the Chesapeake Bay -- not noted for its fog. We awoke to fog with about 100 yrds of visibility. While we could have picked our way out of the creek we were anchored in, we instead chose a more prudent course: wait to see if the fog burns off. If did and we returned home a few hours later. The point here is to weigh the pros and cons of each sailing situation and not to take chances that you don't have to take. Being prudent will result in you becoming a very old and very successful sailor...
I recently got caught in a fog on weekend cruise on the Chesapeake Bay -- not noted for its fog. We awoke to fog with about 100 yrds of visibility. While we could have picked our way out of the creek we were anchored in, we instead chose a more prudent course: wait to see if the fog burns off. If did and we returned home a few hours later. The point here is to weigh the pros and cons of each sailing situation and not to take chances that you don't have to take. Being prudent will result in you becoming a very old and very successful sailor...
Know what you are in for...
Being out when the weather changes and having to deal with it is one thing. Going out when it is snotty for the experience is certianly another... If you are going out for the experience, that is certianly okay if you are prepared to be knocked about, get wet and be uncomfortable. I would make sure that those who are going along are well warned of what they are in for. Also, with 1km visibility two boats comming in opposite directions making 6 knots will only see each other for 5 minutes before they are at the same place. Be sure to keep a very good watch in addition to a constant and accurate DR so that you don't get lost. All the best, Liam.
Being out when the weather changes and having to deal with it is one thing. Going out when it is snotty for the experience is certianly another... If you are going out for the experience, that is certianly okay if you are prepared to be knocked about, get wet and be uncomfortable. I would make sure that those who are going along are well warned of what they are in for. Also, with 1km visibility two boats comming in opposite directions making 6 knots will only see each other for 5 minutes before they are at the same place. Be sure to keep a very good watch in addition to a constant and accurate DR so that you don't get lost. All the best, Liam.
No Rain..
Lets hope that the forecasters are wrong, and that the Sox win tonight, so I can be a Fenway tomorrow for game 4!!
Lets hope that the forecasters are wrong, and that the Sox win tonight, so I can be a Fenway tomorrow for game 4!!
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