PacificNW Weather... WINTER STORMS coming to a place you live.

[jssailem]

The forecast for the next couple of weeks looks to be wet and wild.

I follow the weather forecasting of a fellow amateur weather man here in Oregon, named Rufus. He has a pretty good handle on the long range patterns that form and then appear over our NW region. Today he shared a pattern that is true PacificNW winter, influenced by the La Niña conditions of the ENSO Pacific currents. We have talked about La Niña this year in association with the impact on the Atlantic Hurricane Season (more of that is to come).

Here is an image of the Pacific from Windy. You can see 3 Low Pressure cells. Beginning off the coast of Japan and riding the Japanese current up to the Aleutians and then down to our coastline.

Today sailors and residents of the PacificNW need to consider their preparation for winter storms. There are a series of 4 major storms forming. They look to be impacting our coastlines from BC to the Oregon/Calif line between now and the 12th DEC.

If you are a winter sailor and enjoy strong windy days, you may be getting an early Christmas gift..

Here is the forecast by Rufus at the Weather Cafe:

Monday December 5​

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— YELLOW ALERT for WIND this weekend —​

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Stormy December wx may be coming. For this forecast, we’ll focus on 4 storms. Refill your morn’n Mug. ​

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A drab pattern is on tap for the first 3 days of this week. Plenty of foggy bottoms and calm conditions. Take advantage, if there is outdoor work to do, as we may be entering a classic stormy December period. Admittedly, we have forecast such a 'run of storms' a few times this fall, to no avail. However, if the models verify, planning ahead will prove prudent. So, what’s the scope? ​

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1st. Rain returns late Wed night, moving in from the NW. Vancouver Island & southern BC get wet first, then the rain will spread across the rest of the PNW by sunrise Thu Dec 8. It will be a fast moving front, so expect showers to begin by late Thu. It will be a cold front, with snow levels dropping again to low elevations once the front passes.​

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2nd. Right behind storm 1 will be a potentially STRONG storm hitting from the West sometime on late Fri / early Sat. Just where the very deep centered Low moves onshore will determine which area get the strongest WIND FIELD. Currently, models track No. 2 to make ‘landfall’ somewhere between Coos Bay & Astoria. BUT, as it moves right up against the OR coast, some solutions literally circle the Low up towards central WA coast, then move it back to Astoria area by Saturday night. Complicated and very difficult to pin down details. However, we are not afraid to put out the possibilities; you decide how to plan accordingly. Quite windy conditions may last hours. Center pressure could be in the 980s mb and filling to 995 mb by Sat night; some solutions drop the Low to the 970s by Sat morning. In general, this storm has been on the charts for a few days now, warranting a call-out here.​

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3rd. Yep, another storm - which could be the WETTEST of the series, is modeled to arrive by Mon morning, Dec 12, with the brunt of the storm hitting the region by Tue. A very deep Low, potentially in the 960s mb!, may form and track just north of Vancouver Island. The WIND FIELD for this storm will be large, so the PNW could be blown around again, although not as roughly as No. 2. (Worth the mention: there have been solutions tracking this storm right up against the NW coast of WA; if this scenario were to verify, wind issues will be greatly expanded and stronger than the second system.)​

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4th. After a relatively dry Wed and most of Thu, Dec 14,15, another batch of rain will sweep into the PNW late Thu and Fri. Sat the 17th may be dry, with rain on/off from Sunday into the final week before Christmas.​

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Lots of changes are inevitable, of course, but for now, it will be prudent to plan ahead in case any or all of this strong storms make it onshore. The wx this fall has been relatively tranquil, with long stretches between storms. What is charting now is a rapid succession of storms, some quite powerful, beginning later this week. Hold on.​

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“It’s best not to see through one another but to see one another through."​

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-Rufus​

 

[kappykaplan]

Stay safe and warm, John.

 

[JamesG161]

Stay safe and warm, John.

Note his foul weather gear is on now.

Thus I nicknamed @jssailem

Mr Mummy


Jim...

 

[kappykaplan]

Note his foul weather gear is on now.

 

[jssailem]

Weather (unlike climate) is in constant change measured in days not eons....\

So too are the Updates. If you are considering a winter adventure, here is the current prognosis.

Friday December 9

The threat for strong winds has changed, as the track of the storms will remain offshore; however, strong east-to-NE winds over the Puget Sound & out of the Columbia Gorge will be in play, at times, so Mug up & read on.

A Low center pressure Pacific storm is charting to drop to approx 979 mb as it approaches north Vancouver Island; however, the storm center will NOT move onshore; instead it will track off the coasts of WA & OR, slowly ‘filling in’ (weakening) as it moves onshore into California late Sunday. Hence, southerly WINDS will be nominal; however, E to NE winds in the Puget Sound will get noticed. We will get some precipitation out of this storm, today (Fri) lasting through much of Saturday. The air mass will cool down as the weekend unfolds, so snow levels will drop below the passes. Quite wet & windy in the far southern portions of OR and into northern CA. Localized fog could reform on Sunday & Monday as winds diminish; temps will be close to, if not below, freezing is the sky clears.

The Tuesday storm, which we mentioned last time a possible wind producer, is now likely to track offshore, posing no threat for wind or much precip on Tue & Wed. In fact, High pressure will build east of the Cascades and set up a STRONG east wind situation as next week progresses. Fraser wind should increase a bit late Tue night, and be a factor for a few days. For east Portland & the Columbia Gorge, the wind will increase daily so that by Fri & Sat Dec 16,17 it could be quite strong. Other than a few showers late Tue into Wed, DRY weather will be the main feature of next week. The winds will ease up by Sunday the 18th.

Our next period of rain could begin during the week of Dec 19-23. Model runs have trended two different ways; 1) a pattern brings another COLD High pressure dome down from interior of Canada setting up a cold & wet, low-elevation-snow threat during that week; or 2) a chilly & damp system drops in from the NW on Tue, followed by a series of stronger, much wetter storms for mid-to-late week Dec 21,22, drenching the PNW before and during the Christmas weekend. Plenty of time to refine this outlook next week.

A White Christmas is not indicated, as of yet, on the long-range charts.

“Money may talk, but today’s dollar doesn’t have enough cents to say very much."

-Rufus

 

[jssailem]

I love the Christmas Holidays. I get to wish Merry Christmas to all I meet. Maybe I was an elf in a previous journey, who knows.

Anyway, weather for this PacificNW Holiday season is not looking good. A week ago Rufus was overcome with Christmas cheer and a forecast of White Christmas. When I looked at the long range forecast in windy, I saw a narrow window of possibility but freezing weather that would inhibit my boat project. I was thinking, get the boat hauled. Let it sit in the yard through the cold of Christmas, then maybe after there would be some good work days post Christmas. Well we know how that turned out. No boat haul and I am sipping coffee wondering when I can drop the Q flag and let myself out of quarantine.

Looks like the weather outside will be frightful. Fraser Gap Cold for our Canadian and North Puget Sound sailors. Big Arctic Chill on the Eastside of the Cascades, bleeding down into Western Oregon and Southern Washington.

Bundle up, light a fire and sing Christmas songs fortified with spiked eggnog. As they say, "It is going to get worse much worse before it can get better."

Here is Rufus's take on the specifics.
Merry Christmas.

Monday December 19

Patrons that have brought their Mug to the counter here for several years know that often model projections swing back-n-forth, meaning that what was projected earlier oft ends up being the actual weather event at the present. Such is the case with the outlook for the end of this week. Snow, sleet, freezing rain is again likely on Thu & Fri Dec 22, 23. Here ya go —

The modified Arctic Front has arrived across the far NW WA / BC area (temperature in Bellingham this morning dropped to 16, with snow yesterday and last night across much of the Puget Sound. The White is back. Patrons in NW WA can expect additional snow over the next couple of days (inches!), as a Low moves onshore to the south. It will remain cold.

For Patrons in OR, the front has been delayed (a common aspect of these patterns) until early this week. By Wednesday, eastern basins in OR, as well as valley temps will be quite cold (negative F in eastern WA, close to that for the usual cold locations in OR). As such, the east wind out of the Columbia Gorge will ROAR - as strong as 80-100 mph at Crown Point - Thu through Fri Dec 22,23. The cold air settles in on Wed. Dry & cold for western OR. The ‘depth’ of Arctic Air east of the Cascades should be enough to push subfreezing temps across the Willamette Valley / north OR coast by Thu the 22nd.

This forecast, if verified, is the Back to the Future one, as earlier expectations called for a very MESSY WINTER EVENT to end this week, right at the time so many folks are traveling for the holiday weekend. Why? With the cold air settling in at the surface, west of the Cascades, any moisture riding up over that cold air will set off frozen precip issues. The forecast for Thu into Fri is complicated, so please heed Nat’l Wx Service watches & warnings that are likely to be posted soon.

We will forecast the possibility for all three forms of frozen precipitation - snow, sleet, freezing rain - depending on your location as a warm front moves onshore by sometime Thu. The farther south one is in the PNW, the less likely to have any or all three types of frozen precip (unless in the mountains). Therefore, for:

Eugene area north to Albany, the surface air flow could turn from the south early enough to usher in rain, or light freezing rain first, then all rain. Depending on how cold it gets, rain/snow mix is an outside chance, but models push a ‘finger of warm’ air into the mid-level atmosphere, which melts snow flakes and causes freezing rain, if surface temps are below 33. You know the drill. Plan on freezing rain Thu night.
Areas north of Salem, the chance two of the three, or at least freezing rain, from the event coming is more likely. Gorge winds could keep SNOW as the type of frozen precip arriving first, before progressing to sleet or freezing rain, THEN rain if the moisture source continues. The quicker the front approaches, the less issue with snow. East Portland into the Gorge will be quite wintery. Travel after dark on Thu and into Fri will be dangerous.
SW WA up into the southern Puget Sound region, it will be possible to get all three forms of frozen water before any rain. Right now, it may remain at or below freezing as the storm passes. In other words, it may not rain until Sat. Travel will be impacted.
Seattle north to BC, Patrons could experience another significant shot of snow before sleet and then freezing rain on top of those layers of frozen water. Travel will be dangerous; expect delays in air travel.

Christmas Eve / Day. The winter event should be over (except for east of the Cascades & the mountains). RAIN will rapidly move in on Saturday for everyone. RAIN will be in play on Christmas Day, as well. Forget the dry holiday we expected a week ago. It will be quite WET. But wait, there’s more.

Week after Christmas heading into the New Year is modeled to bring on another high wx impact event. HEAVY RAINFALL. Models for the past week have been charting a series of WET Pacific storms moving onshore right after another through the entire week. The ‘jet stream’ by Wed Dec 28 will be extremely strong and aimed right at western OR. Multiple inches of rain are possible for BC, western WA, western OR and northern CA as the last days of 2022 click by.

Let’s get through the Christmas period first, then we’ll deal with the water issues. Just be ready if you live in flood prone locations as a big slam-bam goodbye twenty-twenty-two looks probable. Yikes.

“At Christmas consider not so much the gift of a friend but the friendship of the giver."

-Rufus

 

[WayneH]

We are eagerly awaiting (dreading) the oncoming Alberta Clipper. It's currently 46 here in Central Texas but the high for Friday is 31. At least this one is dry and I won't have to get up on the roof to clear the solar panels. A couple of years ago, we got an inch and a half of freezing rain followed by 6 inches of snow. Took a while to get on the roof and make it to the peak so I could clear the panels off. Coming back down I hit a slick spot and skidded about 4 feet but stopped before the roof edge. 17 feet up and onto 6 inches of snow and 30 feet of limestone would hurt. I was constipated for a week after that. We knew it was coming and the Admiral stocked up and we stayed home because the people around here don't know how to drive when it's dry, much less covered with snow.

This year, I'm still wearing a cast on my leg and can't climb the ladder if I had to and I'm not sending the Admiral up there, either. Bundle up and stay warm.

 

[JamesG161]

Friday morning Dec 23rd USA temperatures.

We have to pick all my Grapefruit from back yard tree Thursday, or they will freeze.
We harvested 500+ this year.

Santa's Helper
Jim...