• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

PacificNW. Get ready for the freezer door to get left open.

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
22,281
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
It has been an interesting winter so far. This week will be almost balmy, with temperatures reaching the low 50s a couple of days. However, this is only the prelude to what appears to be our coming Big Freeze, which will test your preparations.

Here is the forecast, according to Rufus.

Monday January 6
Say what? Well, it is a couple of weeks out, but long-range model runs are coming around to a major winter event in the PNW. Ponder time now, planning time coming soon, should the model’s verify. Let’s Mug-start the discussion now.
The incessant rainy period of late has ended. Yes, we will get a shot or two of precipitation over the next several days, but durations will be limited. That said, expect a quick-shot of showers overnight this Tue, only if you live NW WA / Vancouver area. The next threat for rain will be more widespread and arrive overnight this Thu into early Fri Jan 9. This system will be organized, presenting rain west side, freezing rain and snow east side; several inches of snow in the Cascades.
Other than the shots of precip mentioned above, we are on track to remain DRY through roughly Thu night Jan 16th. Overall temperatures will be fairly moderate until just before the Jan 16-17 storm arrives. Then, LOOK OUT for SNOW!!
⚠ Seriously, model runs suggest that the cold front on Friday Jan 17 will usher in SNOW at the surface across the PNW.
Much colder air is charting to infiltrate the region - via the typical Fraser & Columbia Gaps - during the weekend of Jan 18,19. Concurrently, moisture will ride up from the south, setting up a notable SNOW EVENT late Sunday Jan 19 into early Inauguration Day, Mon Jan 20. The heaviest snowfall is currently targeting western OR. (We’ll deal with how much snow, should all of this continue to verify.)
Around Tue Jan 21, a VERY cold Arctic Blast is looking possible for the PNW — the coldest temps in quite some time. We will need to monitor THIS possible outcome closely. As of now, temps in the single digits are pegged for mid-week, Jan 22. Furthermore, another push of moisture from the SW may arrive late week, Jan 22-23, for a real messy snow storm — putting more snow on top of what will already be ‘placed’. Oh my.
Again, PONDER all of this mid-Jan winter stuff for now, but should we see continued verification of such a series of winter events, planning for travel, school closures, etc will be prudent. Keep that Mug handy, Patron!
“What you don’t owe won’t hurt you."
-Rufus
 
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