Some answers.
Chris,It may seem intuitive that the odds of being struck rise to 100% if you are the only boat on the bay but that's not really the case. To understand why, we need to know something about why lightning occurs at all. I'm sure you've shuffled your feet across a carpet, touched a metal object, and saw/felt static electricity. Shuffling your feet creates charge transfer. The "spark" jumps to your finger before you actually touch the object.Lightning is just static electricity albeit of a much greater magnitude. Ice crystals in a cloud bang into each other creating charge transfer. As the charge accumulates, it is separated within the cloud. Now we have a situation analogous to you shuffling your feet on the carpet. When the cloud passes over an object on the ground, it "sees" a difference in its charge versus that of an object on the ground (potential difference). Now two scenarios can occur. The potential difference may be great enough that the air can no longer act as an insulator and a stepped leader begins to form. At the same time, streamers begin to rise upward to meet the stepped leader. When the two meet, lightning occurs. The second scenario is just like the first but in this case, the object on the ground is much taller than the surrounding terrain. This reduces the physical distance between them making it easier for the leader and streamer to meet. Hence, tall radio/tv towers are struck repeatedly.So why doesn't the only boat on the bay get struck every time a storm passes? It has everything to do with the potential difference. Your boat may not have enough charge build-up to cause a large potential difference.Think about this for a moment, if your mast is grounded, the tip of your mast has approximately the same charge as the water around your boat. Thus, your mast is at nearly the same potential difference as the water relative to a passing thundercloud. The cloud "sees" no more "reason" to strike your boat than the surrounding water. Even if your mast is not grounded, there still may not be enough potential difference to initiate the strike.The second factor is that your mast height may be insignificant compared to the distance from the cloud to the ground. You wouldn't get shocked from standing with your finger pointed at the door knob from three feet away. The air is providing enough insulation to prevent the potential difference from becoming great enough for a discharge.Whew! I hope this answers your first question. For your second question, there are a number of people on this web site that claim to have had their boats struck by lightning. Direct strikes will certainly cause damage to electronics from inductive coupling if not from direct conduction. Many have reported significant hull damage as well.Do not think that stainless is a poor conductor. It may not conduct as well as copper but that would be a moot point in the case of a lightning strike.Mark Kissels/v KittiwakeH240