The formula I use is the working load is 10% of the breaking strength. So with a 500 lbs. keel you need wire with a breaking strength of 5000 lbs minimum. That is at least 1/4 stainless wire 7X19 is preferred as it bends around the winch drum better. My boat originally came with 1X19 wire that has an even higher breaking strength but it dos not bend as easy and stands are breaking so it needs replacement. Some people are now using these new high tech composite ropes...there is a thread about it if you look for it.