• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Invest 98L --> Tropical Storm Melissa

JamesG161

JamesG161

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Feb 14, 2014
7,902
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
All models are to many days out to predict this Tropical Wave, but....

GFS

GFS 120.png


ECMWF

ECMWF 120.PNG


It runs head on to Dry Air and should weaken.

goes19_wv-rgb_98L_202510181505.gif



Dammit Jim...
 
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jssailem

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
23,582
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
"Something wicked this way comes."
Perhaps the lack of storm excitement this year has the internet buzzing about 98L and what it might be—what it may become.

98L will certainly become something. The weather front (not yet a tropical storm) is trapped between two high-pressure cells and is stalled (temporarily) in the Caribbean Sea. The water temperatures are ripe for storm development.

This morning's observation provides two possible developments based on the GFS and the ECMWF weather models.

The GFS model predicts that the storm will form over the next couple of days and then track NorthEast. The path has the storm track over Hispaniola on the 27th and out to sea.
1761059569725.png


The ECMWF model indicates the storm forms but is delayed in the Caribbean Sea for 24 hours. It then tracks north over Cuba, out over the Bahamas, and to sea.
1761059735060.png


1761059839759.png


We need to remember this is weather, and it may do something that the models are not predicting. Whatever path it takes, the storm will be carrying a lot of moisture. Expect heavy rainfall and flooding to be associated with this storm.

Listen to the advisories of the local officials and stay safe.
 
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kappykaplan

kappykaplan

.
May 1, 2011
5,181
Pearson 37 Lusby MD
Looks like the bulk of the models show Melissa staying away from the East coast. One model shows that it could drive some much-needed rain for us.
 
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jssailem

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
23,582
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
The Plane, the plane...
Earlier, there was a discussion of the storm not forming vertically due to a tilt in the axis of the storm. It is over warm water, but the lower half is being blown towards the west (influenced by the Trades), and the upper half is being blown to the East by the tropical jet. This tilted access can be seen in the reported wind speeds, which are displaced to the east of the storm front (the 40-50 kt winds yellow and light green).

This is a good thing, but likely not lasting over the next 24-36 hours.

Keep tuned to this channel for updates.
 
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